Actually doesn't the AOA have a decent number of Ortho spots? Get ready for those to get hit with a high number of applicants with 240+ and good research.
I always thought this would be a negative for DOs in competitive specialties since they will now compete with a lot of highly qualified people. Though maybe this will be a positive for less competitive specialties? Idk honestly.
Most DOs I know that confidently match AOA Ortho already have 700+, 240+, and tons of research. This isn't a decade ago where if you had a good work ethic you could match AOA ortho easily. I actually know a few that failed to match AOA with 700-750s and 240-250s. Heck, most DOs I know with 240s and 250s aren't even going for AOA Ortho, they're going for ACGME Rads, EM, and Anesthesia.
Sure some of the borderline DOs will be dropped from surgical subspecialties, but lets be honest their chances were questionable anyway, especially with ever expanding DOs with higher stats in the top quartile.
...As a side note, could ACGME be trying to cut the growth of DO schools by now controlling their residencies? COCA and the AOA now can't keep opening schools while 1) not expanding residency spots and/or 2) opening up poor residency spots that graduates gain nothing from. Seems like a strategic move to control the devaluing of the medical profession as a whole. COCA could continue opening up schools, but ACGME most likely won't do anything to help residency wise and/or will not approve or allow crappy residency programs to support unnecessary medical school growth.
The AOA has consistently been expanding OGME at a rate much faster than ACGME expansion for the last few years. It's the reason why in 4 years the AOA PGY1 positions went from ~2500 to ~3000. 100+ new PGY1 positions have been added every year, which really amounts to 300-400 new positions every year spread across the residency period.
This is all meaningless, however, because they already started with significantly less OGME than DO grads and they also aren't expanding OGME at a rate to match DO expansion. To give you an idea, the grad rate has increased by the same amount every 1-2 years as OGME expands every 4.
because they had their own protected spots to match into which MDs cannot. what do you think is going to happen when the MDs can match into those spots? Obviously some MDs will match into previously DO only spots. The question is at what frequency.
DOs matching into DO derm or DO ortho programs doesn't make your argument, it undermines it. Show me DOs matching into MD derm or MD ortho, that is where you make a point if there is one.
You missed the point. A ton (like 50%) already apply and compete against MDs in the NRMP match, and many of them regularly match in specialties, even those considered moderately competitive. This isn't changing anytime soon.
Question: roughly how many former AOA residency positions are anticipated being added to the NRMP?
~3000, some may be lost, but some might also be gained in that time. I suspect a wash.
you're not understanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying ortho MD studs are gonna take a DO ortho spot. I'm saying a 240 MD kid is gonna take a DO ortho spot, in which he/she previously wouldn't have matched into ortho.
See above. Plenty of DOs with 240s and 250s already make up the top quartile of DOs competing for AOA Ortho.
DO students have been able to apply to ACGME programs for quite some time. That didn't change with the merger.
Your odds didn't suddenly increase. In the most optimistic view, they have simply remained the same as they were.
It's just that now a bunch of borderline (for ortho) MD students are going to be encroaching upon DO ortho slots that used to be closed to them.
You're significantly underestimating the handicap that being in 2 matches that occur at different times places on competitive DOs. It might hurt the weak ones sure, but many of the competitive DOs have to forego the NRMP match altogether, or eliminate a bunch of programs in the specialty they want. It's no fun having to take a risk like that, and most don't, they go AOA and never get a chance to compete in the NRMP match.
We honestly don't know how those DOs will perform in a combined match.