On second read through it looks like 30 of 38 AOA surgical residencies did not pass initial ACGME accreditation... Jesus.
What exactly is it based off of? Initial review of the app?
I don't know if I even buy that. Even if I did, the ACGME made applying during the transition one of the easiest things in the world (i.e. there's literally no risk in submitting an app before you conform to the requirements - you only get charged 1 fee for the whole transition so programs can submit the apps as many times as they want without additional fees), and the AOA required that programs submit an app for accreditation by a deadline depending on the length of training in order for programs to continue taking residents during the transition (i.e. it incentivized longer DO programs to apply ASAP regardless of whether they were ready to conform to the requirements).
Now that's all assuming he isn't pulling that 30/38 number out of nowhere. For one, I have no idea what he's even basing it off of. I actually looked at the ACGME reports and this is what I gathered:
GS:
-34 programs applied
-11 were evaluated and have things the RRC wants changed (continued pre-accred)
-1 received initial ACGME accreditation right away
-It doesn't look like the 22 others were even evaluated yet, which makes sense because all but a handful applied less than a year ago (most <6mos ago)
Ortho:
-28 applied
-8 have continued pre-accreditation
-5 received initial accreditation right away
-15 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
Ophtho:
-2 applied
-1 has continued pre-accreditation
-1 hasn't been evaluated by the RRC yet
ENT:
-10 applied
-6 have continued pre-accreditation
-4 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
Urology:
-10 applied
-4 have continued pre-accreditation
-6 received initial accreditation right away
NS:
-7 applied
-2 have continued pre-accreditation
-5 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
So out of 89 surgical residencies that applied, only 48 were evaluated, 1/3 of those received ACGME initial accreditation right away basically without changing anything, and 2/3 have things the RRC wants changed.
First off, I still have no idea where he's getting 30/38, but unless 8 out of the 10 last programs that were reviewed received accreditation right away, his numbers are a bit suspect. Second off, I've already listed 2 huge incentives for programs to submit the apps before they're ready and there's pretty much no downside to it.
Of course there'll be a ton of programs that don't automatically fulfill all the ACGME requirements. They've been established for years and have never had to (technically they don't have to for another 3-4 yrs). That's the entire point of a transition period. Depending on the sites, it takes time for changes to be implemented, especially since for practically a year there was a question of whether the merger would even happen in the first place (because a group, of whom Gevitz was a very vocal member, vehemently opposed it for claims of maintaining our "DO destinctiveness").
Some programs won't make it, sure, but the ones that can't change to fulfill ACGME requirements over a 5 year transition really don't deserve to exist. I still think it'll be nowhere near his estimate of losing 30%+ of OGME.
Here's some additional info for other specialties people were scared will close:
Anesthesia:
-6 applied
-1 has continued pre-accreditation
-2 received initial accreditation right away
-3 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
Derm:
-9 applied
-3 have continued pre-accreditation
-3 received initial accreditation right away
-3 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
EM:
-27 applied
-4 have continued accreditation
-7 received initial accreditation right away
-16 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
Rads:
-9 applied
-3 have continued pre-accreditation
-3 received initial accreditation right away
-3 havn't been evaluated by the RRC yet
OB/Gyn:
-14 applied
-3 received initial accreditation
-11 haven't been evaluated by the RRC yet
And overall for all residencies:
OVERALL:
-236 applied
-55 have continued pre-accreditation
-56 received initial accreditation right away
-125 haven't been evaluated by the RRCs yet