I don't think there is a magic number....Getting the grades, board scores and slors just buy you a lottery ticket.... after that unless you're connected its random and you just hope your ticket comes up.
I played by all the rules: good grades, 230+Step1, 250+ step 2, rotated at my number one got great evals and didn't match there so all I can say is there is no guarantee....applied to 24 interviewed at 6 and matched (way below the magic number). I am happy where I matched and I really like the program but I still feel that there is a lot of randomness to the process, it wasn't my number one and I had good stats. In addition, I know people that matched at top name programs with "lower" academic stats while people with higher had to scramble or went down their list(and no the scrambling people weren't jerks
)...
So I think the answer is do all that you can to buy a ticket for the lottery and then stay out to the results...you match where you're supposed to be or not... taking that approach just makes your life alot simplier
you then can deal with the situation when it arises...there is no way to rig the match, no guarantees and trust no programs
just kindly smile, say thank you and privately pray to the match gods
And best of luck to all