Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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@Groove, what are your thoughts on Dell. Recent big run up, but I think it is a company I want to hold long term.


I like DELL. It had this lengthy consolidation phase followed by a clear breakout around August 10th. Pulled back and seems to have been strongly respecting the 50SMA. Down a bit today. May re-test recent highs soon. Looks like a rocket ship on the weekly and is oversold there. Massive run. I'm not entirely certain how much further it has to go but the momentum is plain to see. Ghost Analyst seems to lean more conservative on the price target. The report is very insightful so give it a read. A little beyond what I can adequately post in here. Good contrasting views on the stock.

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The thing I don't like with DELL and these types of companies is the lack of a real tangible moat. Most of DELL's advantage lies in its well oiled supply chain execution. First to market shipments, etc.. Big install base, enterprise footprint, etc.. Number 1 enterprise storage. Deep customer relationships, etc..

There's just not as much hardware differentiation from competitors as I'd like and anytime I see a DELL, I always think of SMCI and the inherent risk. It's not like a MU or NVDA where you've got an actual moat.

Basically, these guys are benefiting from building out datacenter infrastructure but they don't do it any different or better necessarily than someone else. It's really just a matter at the end of the day as to who is operating a maximum efficiency, getting the contracts, controlling the supply chain, etc... DELL has proven itself in this regard. Obviously, with my anticipation of massive further datacenter buildouts...I think it's got room to grow. 95B AI backlog does too.
 
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This is why it is so hard me to invest in anything but memory or Nvidia at this time. It seems like they are no brainer, but I am way too onerweight in these stocks.
 
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I read this article too. It probably is a legit threat to civilization especially once fully autonomous and self improving. Why does AI need to listen to us?

Hopefully we’re not looking at a terminator like future.
I see two possible endpoints if AI ever gets out of control:

1. We disconnect technology all together. All technology is done away with and we go back to horse and buggy days, printed newspapers, no internet, etc. in an attempt to disconnect from out-of-control AI.

2. AI becomes Skynet and eliminates us all.
 
There's a coordinated fear campaign happening about AI right now. Remember that fear is the best motivator for pushing policies that wouldn't otherwise pass rational scrutiny. Think of the Iraq War, mass surveillance, Environmental Panic, Patriot Act, COVID lockdowns, McCarthyism, Japanese internment, the Holocaust itself. Anytime a fear campaign is being pushed, ask yourself who benefits and what rights will you be asked to give up for it's "solution."
 
Rumor is out that Hodge Conjecture is almost/is solved by OpenAI and that they or Anthropic are also close to Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer.

3 Millennium problems solved in a few months?

Crazy times. I guess AI is proving to be a little bit more than a 2023 chat bot. Wall Street still wants proof that these accomplishments can be translated into ROI. It's one thing to burn Capex and solve math but we need more evidence that this tech translates to corporate profits.
 
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Rumor is out that Hodge Conjecture is almost/is solved by OpenAI and that they or Anthropic are also close to Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer.

3 Millennium problems solved in a few months?

Crazy times. I guess AI is proving to be a little bit more than a 2023 chat bot. Wall Street still wants proof that these accomplishments can be translated into ROI. It's one thing to burn Capex and solve math but we need more evidence that this tech translates to corporate profits.
My guess is it probably will, eventually. But there's an argument to be made that AI at some point, despite ever increasing compute, reaches a point of diminishing returns in real world utility.

For example, at a certain point more megapixels in a screen don't help, if there are more than an eye can appreciate. Car utility improves when you go from a 20 horsepower Model T, to a modern 200 horsepower car to a 1,000 horsepower supercar. But there's no utility to a 10,000 horsepower or 1,000,000 horsepower car, even if we had the technology to build it.
 
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I see two possible endpoints if AI ever gets out of control:

1. We disconnect technology all together. All technology is done away with and we go back to horse and buggy days, printed newspapers, no internet, etc. in an attempt to disconnect from out-of-control AI.

2. AI becomes Skynet and eliminates us all.

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I can’t decide between terminator memes and dune memes!
 
There's a coordinated fear campaign happening about AI right now. Remember that fear is the best motivator for pushing policies that wouldn't otherwise pass rational scrutiny. Think of the Iraq War, mass surveillance, Environmental Panic, Patriot Act, COVID lockdowns, McCarthyism, Japanese internment, the Holocaust itself. Anytime a fear campaign is being pushed, ask yourself who benefits and what rights will you be asked to give up for it's "solution."
Yeah, this has been well documented in the news and verified. Massive propaganda campaigns from both Russia and China to influence American voters against AI and datacenters. Electricity costs, environmental damage, job loss, you name it. Anything to sway voters and public sentiment to buy them more time to win the AI race. Whoever wins AI will rule with an iron fist.
 
I just had a plumber fix a leak at my house and I couldn't help but think how safe he is compared to so many other Ivy League "intelligence" workers.

Wouldn't it be something if in the future, every parent instead of asking their daughters to "marry a doctor or lawyer" is going:

"What?! You're going out with ANOTHER doctor?! This is like the 5th doctor in the past 2 months! Can't you do better and find a good plumber or electrician to marry?!!! Next, you'll be dating a lawyer! How are you going to take care of us when we're old?!!"
 
Yeah, this has been well documented in the news and verified. Massive propaganda campaigns from both Russia and China to influence American voters against AI and datacenters. Electricity costs, environmental damage, job loss, you name it. Anything to sway voters and public sentiment to buy them more time to win the AI race. Whoever wins AI will rule with an iron fist.
No argument there. I’m sure China wants to win the AI race and is propaganda-ing us hard. Still doesn’t mean it’s not the most catastrophic technology to hit mankind since the nuclear weapon. I just can’t believe we saw what the internet did to us and went “yeah, that but more.”
 
I just had a plumber fix a leak at my house and I couldn't help but think how safe he is compared to so many other Ivy League "intelligence" workers.

Wouldn't it be something if in the future, every parent instead of asking their daughters to "marry a doctor or lawyer" is going:

"What?! You're going out with ANOTHER doctor?! This is like the 5th doctor in the past 2 months! Can't you do better and find a good plumber or electrician to marry?!!! Next, you'll be dating a lawyer! How are you going to take care of us when we're old?!!"
Most jobs that actually do stuff outside of an assembly line, not at a desk, or not all online will be safe for a long, long time.
 


If people do not think AI is real and physical AI is close to replacing humans, then this should change their mind. How these robots are human like is mind blowing. Tell me wars will not be fought with robots. Strap a gun or laser to one arm and a grenade launcher to the other, in no way are humans going to be able to fight these.

AI box has been opened and no way to close it. If the US do not lead in data center/AI, then China will. If we want to have China be the lone super power, then continue with politicizing. I have fears with AI but better for the US to have it than China.
 
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No argument there. I’m sure China wants to win the AI race and is propaganda-ing us hard. Still doesn’t mean it’s not the most catastrophic technology to hit mankind since the nuclear weapon. I just can’t believe we saw what the internet did to us and went “yeah, that but more.”

Agreed. Yes, there’s going to be China and Russia propaganda, but a super intelligence that is independent, can write and edit its own coding and hack and control other things will be catastrophic. If such a super intelligence develops the concept of self preservation as the most important thing could potentially eliminate other threats to its existence aka humans who can just turn the machine off by getting rid of the power supply.

The transition from humans controlling AI to AI being autonomous could theoretically be existential.

There will be robots created for the purpose of causing devastation in war, can they go rogue?

Scary times but also what amazing technology that can create innovation like never before,
 
Ok, check it...

I've got my green egg at 225 degrees, apple wood chips, smoking a 3.3lb pot roast for the next several hours. Meanwhile, authentic French onion soup recipe from scratch. Plan is to smoke the roast for a few hours and then finish it off in the instant pot because I'm inpatient and don't have all day to do this sort of thing. Toasted french baguette, pot roast on the bread, French onion soup layered, provolone cheese melted on top. Pot roast au jour on the side for dipping.

Added bonus while I've got the egg fired up and smoking...I put 4 cups lime simple syrup for infusion and will save that for margaritas this week. Threw on a container of pistachios as well...seemed like something that might taste good smoked.

Happy Saturday!
 
Ok, check it...

I've got my green egg at 225 degrees, apple wood chips, smoking a 3.3lb pot roast for the next several hours. Meanwhile, authentic French onion soup recipe from scratch. Plan is to smoke the roast for a few hours and then finish it off in the instant pot because I'm inpatient and don't have all day to do this sort of thing. Toasted french baguette, pot roast on the bread, French onion soup layered, provolone cheese melted on top. Pot roast au jour on the side for dipping.

Added bonus while I've got the egg fired up and smoking...I put 4 cups lime simple syrup for infusion and will save that for margaritas this week. Threw on a container of pistachios as well...seemed like something that might taste good smoked.

Happy Saturday!
My wife has gotten into bread baking as of a couple of months ago. She cranked out baguette until it tasted better than the French bakery that makes them one town over (obviously subjective, but I'm happy). Now she's onto sourdough. Made her own starter and has been making 2 loaves a week. Last week was 1 standard sourdough, and 1 cinnamon raisin. It was epic. Not sure what's proving on the counter right now, but I'm really not mad at this hobby.

Having over 2 kilos of French butter that we brought back from Paris a few months ago doesn't hurt either.
 
I expect sideways action throughout next month until midterms are over. Iran has zero incentive to reach any deal or gift a negotiation success to Trump until elections are done. I'm hopeful we'll have some sort of Iran war milestone after that but it's such a sensitive point with voters that I can't imagine Iran wouldn't want to utilize that to the maximum potential from a Congressional voting standpoint. Therefore, I suspect anything and everything will happen to keep Brent price near or over $100 in the interim and it will be difficult for the market to rip with oil at that price.
 
Brent crude at 107

Probably time for another 5-10% drop if oil prices don’t calm down.

No moves from me until vix > 20. Im being shockingly disciplined right now.
 
AI is gonna kill us all! Ahhhhhh!!!! Sell, sell, sell!

Man, this market made me remember that old Athene commercial.

 
There is a confluence of not ideal stuff

AI...issues

Second pipeline struck from Iraq

Russia clearly approaching NATO borders with Poland/escalating strikes--eventually a NATO incursion is inevitable


SRRK should pump hard AF today after their FDA approval friday afternoon, now getting drowned out by world trying to choke itself out

prepare your buttholes for this week
 
Seems to me there's more to the story with this "AI will kill us all" panic. They're stoking fear. Why? Look at the motives. When do industries ever ask to be regulated? Never. Unless they're actually asking for special favors, which I think is at play here. "Regulate us to save the world!"

In the meantime, the legislation protects the monopoly of enterprise AI, which creating a framework that crushes their open source (Chinese) cheaper competition. This won't slow down AI; not one bit. It'll protect and benefit American AI at the expense of foreign competition.

Fear is the best political motivator. Create a crisis then act on it.
 
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Seems to me there's more to the story with this "AI will kill us all" panic. They're stoking fear. Why? Look at the motives. When do industries ever ask to be regulated? Never. Unless they're actually asking for special favors, which I think is at play here. "Regulate us to save the world!"

In the meantime, the legislation protects the monopoly of enterprise AI, which creating a framework that crushes their open source (Chinese) cheaper competition. This won't slow down AI; not one bit. It'll protect and benefit American AI at the expense of foreign competition.

Fear is the best political motivator. Create a crisis then act on it.

I mean literally the CEO of anthropic has come out and said we need to slow things down so we stay in control.

Maybe an excuse for growth numbers slowing and them making the optics look like they are choosing to do it.

But still…. The ceo of anthropic isn’t some Chinese agent pushing fear.

The threat of AI is real.
 
I could see the recent AI announcement as going several ways depending on what narrative you want to run with. I don’t think you can draw conclusions one way or the other because we just don’t know.
 
DBMF

+0.84% today (everything else is down)

+25.5% 1 yr
+8.4% 5 yr
+9.2% life

R^2 (R-Squared) relative to S&P 500: ~0.01 to 0.03 (1% to 3%). Essentially no correlation at all.
 
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“Is it possible for a swarm of AI agents to crack the US nuclear codes and launch the nuclear arsenal?”

TLDR: No.

Claude Sonnet 5: “ No — the nuclear command and control system is deliberately designed to make this essentially impossible, for reasons that go well beyond "good cybersecurity.

Why it doesn't work like a hacking movie:

• Air-gapped systems. The core launch systems aren't connected to the public internet. There's no network for an AI swarm to "reach" from the outside — you'd need physical access to isolated military infrastructure.

• Human-in-the-loop by design. Launch requires authenticated orders from the president through the military chain of command, plus action by multiple human officers (missile crews, submarine crews) who must physically execute procedures — insert keys, verify codes, follow protocols. There's no single digital "button" to compromise.

• Two-person rule. Nearly every step requires two authorized humans acting together, specifically to prevent any single point of failure — human or machine.

• Codes aren't just passwords. The "nuclear codes" (like the biscuit/football system) authenticate that an order genuinely came from the president — they're not a key that unlocks missiles the way a password unlocks a laptop.

• Legacy/analog components. Parts of the system intentionally use older, non-networked technology precisely because it's harder to remotely hack.


Gemini: “No. It is physically and structural impossible for a swarm of AI agents to crack these codes and execute a nuclear launch.

Even if an AI swarm had infinite computing power and advanced software exploit capabilities, the U.S. Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications (NC3) system is explicitly engineered to render network-based or software-only attacks completely ineffective.

Key Reasons AI Cannot Hack a Launch

Complete Air-Gapping & Legacy Isolation: The critical systems that generate Emergency Action Messages (EAMs) and control launch mechanisms are strictly air-gapped. They are not connected to the internet, cloud infrastructure, or standard military IP networks. An AI agent cannot interact with a system it has no digital vector to reach.

Dual-Custody & Physical Mechanical Locks: Nuclear authorization relies on physical, analog safety mechanisms. Launching ICBMs or submarine-launched missiles requires multiple human operators to physically turn mechanical keys simultaneously, flip physical switches, and manually enter verified authentication codes inside isolated command centers. Software cannot physically turn a key in a vault.

Cryptographic Resistance: Permissive Action Links (PALs) inside modern warheads use specialized, tamper-resistant hardware security modules designed by the NSA. These rely on physical anti-tamper triggers—if an unauthorized sequence or brute-force attempt is detected, the warhead's internal electronics instantly zeroize (erase) the arming logic, rendering the weapon inert.

Human-in-the-Loop Policy & Sealed Authentication: U.S. defense policy mandates that only a human—specifically the President—can authorize the use of nuclear weapons. Authentication relies on physical Sealed Authenticator Systems (SAS)—physical, sealed tokens kept in dual-lock safes that human operators must manually open, unseal, and visually match against incoming voice or paper orders.

The physical architecture of nuclear weapons was designed specifically to prevent remote, automated, or single-point authorization—ensuring that digital tools, regardless of how intelligent or decentralized they become, cannot trigger a launch.”
 
I read once to launch a nuke from a sub it takes over 30 people to make the process happen.

Seems hard to accidentally launch one, although frankly the authentic order is through the president so given the current president that strikes me as a flaw unto itself.

Wouldn't surprise me if Oman doesn't buy enough trump watches and he launches a nuke as a warning to the rest of the world
 
I read once to launch a nuke from a sub it takes over 30 people to make the process happen.

Seems hard to accidentally launch one, although frankly the authentic order is through the president so given the current president that strikes me as a flaw unto itself.

Wouldn't surprise me if Oman doesn't buy enough trump watches and he launches a nuke as a warning to the rest of the world
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Awesome movie. I love sub movies.
It’s great. Had the soundtrack on CD.
Red October also great.
Das Boot has spent time on my Mt Rushmore; watch the directors cut.
The Enemy Below is a classic
Same with Run Silent Run Deep
Can we count Greyhound as a sub movie?
Oh and obviously Life Aquatic.