Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

[Birdstrike]

Advertisement - Members don't see this ad

That’s fair. I literally just looked at the equity return on Google rather than the total return.

Probably a great thing to have for someone 50+. Im a little far from that.

Agree. If you’re 15 yrs or more from retirement, you have less need for something like DBMF (managed futures).

Some diversification is still smart, because S&P 500 has had multiple 10-yr stretches of 0% growth. NASDAQ had a 0% growth stretch of 15 years (2000-2015).

I’m very bullish on American and tech stocks long term, but bear markets do happen.

 

[Groove]

 

[cyanide12345678]

Agree. If you’re 15 yrs or more from retirement, you have less need for something like DBMF (managed futures).

Some diversification is still smart, because S&P 500 has had multiple 10-yr stretches of 0% growth. NASDAQ had a 0% growth stretch of 15 years (2000-2015).

I’m very bullish on American and tech stocks long term, but bear markets do happen.

My hybrid strategy of selling puts and having a large position in spyi would mean that i will out perform significantly in a flat decade.

 

[Splenda88]

$META is on fire suddenly.

It seems like muse might be a success.

 

[Birdstrike]

My hybrid strategy of selling puts and having a large position in spyi would mean that i will out perform significantly in a flat decade.

If you have the skill and patience for a decade of management effort (I have neither) I suppose it works. A managed futures ETF like DBMF takes no effort. You instead pay an expense ratio for someone else to do it.

 

[southerndoc]

$META is on fire suddenly.

It seems like muse might be a success.

For now. Wish I hadn't unloaded my META stock earlier. (sigh)

 

[miamidoc101]

anyone got any new interesting stocks to look at? getting bored haha

 

[southerndoc]

Earnings reported after close	Next-day move
June 24, 2026	+15.74%
March 18, 2026	-3.78%
December 17, 2025	+10.21%
September 23, 2025	-2.83%

I think I'm right (with exception to two of the last four). The majority have been down the day after and all but one have been down 5 business days after.

From ChatGPT:

MU Earnings Reaction — Regular Trading Hours Only

Earnings Date | Earnings-Day Close | Next Trading-Day Close | Next-Day Change | 5th Trading-Day Close | 1-Week Change
Jun 24, 2026 | $1,048.51 | $1,213.56 | +15.74% | $1,032.28 | -1.55%
Mar 18, 2026 | $461.73 | $444.27 | -3.78% | $382.09 | -17.25%
Dec 17, 2025 | $225.52 | $248.55 | +10.21% | $286.68 | +27.12%
Sep 23, 2025 | $166.41 | $161.71 | -2.82% | $167.32 | +0.55%
Jun 25, 2025 | $126.93 | $125.68 | -0.98% | $121.43 | -4.33%
Mar 20, 2025 | $102.60 | $94.36 | -8.03% | $90.81 | -11.49%
Dec 18, 2024 | $103.37 | $86.64 | -16.18% | $89.36 | -13.55%

Summary:
- Next-day positive: 2 of 7
- Next-day negative: 5 of 7
- Average next-day move: -0.84%
- Median next-day move: -2.82%

Five trading days later:
- Positive: 2 of 7
- Negative: 5 of 7
- Average 1-week move: -2.93%
- Median 1-week move: -4.33%

Change from next-day close to 1-week close:
Jun 2026: -14.94%
Mar 2026: -14.00%
Dec 2025: +15.34%
Sep 2025: +3.47%
Jun 2025: -3.38%
Mar 2025: -3.76%
Dec 2024: +3.14%

 

[miamidoc101]

taking too long to get to 10 mil NW so I can stop picking up shifts haha

 

[emergentmd]

Lots of profit takers and selling on the news. I have conviction and have nonissues with a drop.

If it goes up, I’ll make $$ and sell covered calls strike about 30% upside

If it goes down, I’ll sell puts and pick up premium or happy to buy shares at a lower price.

Win win bc I feel Memory is just starting a. Prolonged cycle and potentially becomes non cyclical.

If robots become part of life, they are going to need a lot of memory. Same with cars and other physical AI.

 

[Splenda88]

Lots of profit takers and selling on the news. I have conviction and have nonissues with a drop.

If it goes up, I’ll make $$ and sell covered calls strike about 30% upside

If it goes down, I’ll sell puts and pick up premium or happy to buy shares at a lower price.

Win win bc I feel Memory is just starting a. Prolonged cycle and potentially becomes non cyclical.

If robots become part of life, they are going to need a lot of memory. Same with cars and other physical AI.

I set the price to sell.

AMD @ $1000

SNDK @ $2000

Meta @ $1000

 

[Birdstrike]

Something is about to break in financial markets. 16 out of 16 times the 10-yr US treasury yield rose at this rate, a financial crisis of some kind happened.

History shows financial calamities occur when rates rise rapidly like this: 'Something always breaks'

The 10-year Treasury note yield is spiking to levels not seen in years, and that may be a bad omen for financial markets.

www.cnbc.com

 

[skougess]

Something is about to break in financial markets. 16 out of 16 times the 10-yr US treasury yield rose at this rate, a financial crisis of some kind happened.

History shows financial calamities occur when rates rise rapidly like this: 'Something always breaks'

The 10-year Treasury note yield is spiking to levels not seen in years, and that may be a bad omen for financial markets.

www.cnbc.com

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but there’s always some kind of prediction similar to this that is frequently is wrong. It strikes me as the financial market equivalent to “He bats a .630 average during day games on Tuesdays when facing left handed pitchers in August.”

On the flip side, when easy money stops, broken growth-companies/industries frequently hit a brick wall. I don’t doubt rising interest rates frequently lead to downturns.

 

[Birdstrike]

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but there’s always some kind of prediction similar to this that is frequently is wrong. It strikes me as the financial market equivalent to “He bats a .630 average during day games on Tuesdays when facing left handed pitchers in August.”

On the flip side, when easy money stops, broken growth-companies/industries frequently hit a brick wall. I don’t doubt rising interest rates frequently lead to downturns.

It doesn't necessarily mean a crashing stock market. That was 5 of 16 times, per the article. 11 of 16 times were regional bank failures, depressed foreign markets or issues in other sectors. Such an event might affect you and I or it might not. Some event is likely, though not certain.

If the US 10-yr is a vital sign for the financial system, a sudden rise is a symptom of an underlying problem, not the cause.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I set the price to sell.

AMD @ $1000

SNDK @ $2000

Meta @ $1000

I remember AMD being $3 a share in 2008 when i was a freshman in college, it dropped precipitously when the CEO changed and it was expected to go bankrupt against the Intel monopoly.

How the times have changed.

 

[Splenda88]

I remember AMD being $3 a share in 2008 when i was a freshman in college, it dropped precipitously when the CEO changed and it was expected to go bankrupt against the Intel monopoly.

How the times have changed.

Only if you knew. Lol

I have been spending hours trying to identify the next multi bagger.

 

[Groove]

Ghost Analyst Week Ahead: the real-yield squeeze meets the AI trade

Options and positioning for Sep 28 - Oct 2, 2026. Data as of the Sep 25 close.

kelemvor75.github.io

 

[Groove]

Ghost Analyst Crypto Week Ahead: bitcoin is trading as a two-times Nasdaq

BTC and crypto positioning for Sep 28 - Oct 2, 2026. Data as of Sep 26.

kelemvor75.github.io

 

[cyanide12345678]

Only if you knew. Lol

I have been spending hours trying to identify the next multi bagger.

Probably Pinterest when it gets bought by Meta/Microsoft/Amazon

Forward p/e single digits around 9
Peg ratio around 0.4
Market cap 10 billion
640 million monthly active users, 11% growth rate
ARPU for US users up 14% y/y

Almost completely untapped international market.

One of the most shopping intent user base.

Microsoft attempted to buy them for 51 billion in 2021 when they had 1.6 billion in annual revenue

Their trailing 12 month revenue is currently at 4.6 billion with 200 million more users now.

Pinterest said no to a 51 billion buy out and currently trades at 10 billion despite 2-3X revenue and profits.

 

[bravotwozero]

I’m doing the NIHSS certification videos, and got ChatGPT to analyze and score it. It was off. I’d say significantly. You guys should try it for yourselves, see what you think.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

I’m doing the NIHSS certification videos, and got ChatGPT to analyze and score it. It was off. I’d say significantly. You guys should try it for yourselves, see what you think.

The videos were off or ChatGPT was off?

 

[bravotwozero]

ChatGPT

 

[Groove]

Don't mean to overload AI reports but this one better paints a picture of Week gauntlet, I think. Basically, the red dots are the biggest market moving events. MU is just one big crap shoot. It's statistical higher probability for a earnings win + fade but who knows. If it fades, I'll take a larger position. 7% implied volatility though.

Ghost Analyst Gauntlet: five days, four gates, and a seven-day clock

The week of Sep 28 - Oct 2, 2026, event by event, with what each one can do to rates, the Nasdaq and bitcoin.

kelemvor75.github.io

Undersells importance of the 16 FED speeches by 10 officials. I was a bit worried by that but then again, with 70% rate hike priced in...should we really expect much new information? Implied volatility SPY is less than next month and options market doesn't appear to be pricing in big moves this week so I don't expect anything super dramatic.

PCE/ISM/Payrolls all feed into Oct rate hike.

Hormuz deal would be an unexpected boon to yields but I really doubt anything happens after the 7 day/Friday.

MU earnings will be BIG for the AI complex irrespective of price movement in the following days.

 

[Groove]

 

[Groove]

Citrini research on semis, AI, robotics worth mentioning, summarized by AI:

• The infrastructure agents use. AI assistants still need communications, databases, payments, and security. Companies like Cloudflare, Twilio, and Shopify could benefit as agents perform more tasks and transactions.
• Cybersecurity becomes more important, but the benefits won’t be uniform. Companies that control access, protect networks, or recover compromised data may have more durable businesses than vendors selling basic vulnerability scans. Citrini highlights Rubrik, Zscaler, Fortinet, and F5.
• Robotics could benefit suppliers well before humanoids become commonplace. Someone has to manufacture and test all those prototypes. Protolabs and Xometry offer exposure to that development spending without requiring household robots to become commercially viable immediately.
• Businesses that profit from customer inertia could face pressure. Think unused subscriptions, uncompetitive renewal rates, and services that make cancellation deliberately painful. An agent willing to compare prices or sit on hold could change those economics.

The common thread is to ask who gets paid when AI does more work—and whose margins shrink when customers can make better decisions with less effort?

Valuation still matters. Some beneficiaries already have enormous growth priced in, and several emerging technologies remain years from meaningful profits. I’d treat these as research leads rather than automatic buys.

If you're interested in a specific topic, let me know and I can expand. Several interesting articles lately. I sub them on substack.

 

[Groove]

 

[AlmostAnMD]

Well

I look forward to November

 

[Groove]

 

[Groove]

 

[Groove]

 

[Groove]

 

[emergentmd]

View attachment 425083
View attachment 425084

I’m up about 6-8% in Sept. I’m sure Nov/dec will Be better.

 

[emergentmd]

So how are you guys playing MU into earnings.

I’m holding, bullish, and will sell another Put.

Memory is beginning to feel non cyclical to me. If robots becomes a thing, memory will be like oil

 

[southerndoc]

So how are you guys playing MU into earnings.

I’m holding, bullish, and will sell another Put.

Memory is beginning to feel non cyclical to me. If robots becomes a thing, memory will be like oil

I said I was going to sell my MUU but hold onto MU. I ended up holding onto both.

 

[Groove]

So how are you guys playing MU into earnings.

I’m holding, bullish, and will sell another Put.

Memory is beginning to feel non cyclical to me. If robots becomes a thing, memory will be like oil

I wouldn't overthink it. We know any near pull back will be nothing more than profit taking in preparation for continued grind higher. So far, current price is right on trajectory for an anticipated fade that probably won't reach 2 week lows.

Just remember, it usually fades over days...usually 7-10, not the next day. Every earnings this year has followed that pattern. Last exception would be Dec '25 earnings. It seems to have a tendency to bounce off some of the major moving averages when price is trading within 15% or so. It's about 11% away from confluence of 50/100SMA so I wouldn't be surprised to see it fade toward one of these moving averages and then bounce but we'll see.

 

[Groove]

Just remember. MU is not something we want to hold forever. There are very real threats long term.

1) Classic historical memory cycle. DRAM boom, high prices, synchronized fab wave, demand growth deceleration.

2) Power. That's a big constraint. Cooling. You don't buy HBM for racks you can't power and you can't cool. We are headed towards a very real bottleneck in the industry.

3) Architecture. Spec cuts. Engineering enhancements. That's a very real near term threat and although it doesn't solve the fundamental shortage projections, it produces big news blips that cause volatile sentiment moves.

4) China. CXMT.

5) High prices. I was reading some articles on Trendforce and I forget the term they used but the basic premise is that you can only jack prices up so high before the industry as a whole starts crying uncle and accepting lower standards such as lower memory configurations or just overall stack recalibration. History supports that.

HBM tightness can outlast DRAM tightness. I'm fearful of divergence in 2028. Also, keep in mind trailing multiples look awesome when earnings explode. You might have a "cheap" 2027 EPS but still have a massive 2028 drawdown if '28 supply just so happened to coincided with a Capex pause. I'm talking a 50% move.

Just things to think about.

 

[thumbz]

Just remember. MU is not something we want to hold forever. There are very real threats long term.

I do agree, and as much as I think they'll be a trillion dollar company in 5 years, I don't see them being the next NVDA.

I'm at the point now that the only money I have left in MUU is the profits I've taken from MU. I'm hopeful earnings with be fantastic and we will see a ~10% pop at which point I'll exit it entirely. Otherwise I'll just keep selling covered calls (since last earnings my total return on MUU is ~20% solely through holding covered calls). The premium for the CC's has really bled over the last month or so making me more inclined to get out.

I have no idea what I'm going to move on to next, especially with all the market uncertainty, going into midterms, rates, oil, etc

 

[emergentmd]

I am leaning more towards memory turning noncyclical and in line with CPUs for future AI. Robots will need a good amount of CPUs and Memory. I may be wrong but I do not think this cycle will end before 2030.

I plan on holding MU and selling covered calls when it hits highs and add on to shares if it drops for no good reason. It may not be the next NVDA but I think it has much more legs and money to be made with calls.

 

[skougess]

I am leaning more towards memory turning noncyclical and in line with CPUs for future AI. Robots will need a good amount of CPUs and Memory. I may be wrong but I do not think this cycle will end before 2030.

I plan on holding MU and selling covered calls when it hits highs and add on to shares if it drops for no good reason. It may not be the next NVDA but I think it has much more legs and money to be made with calls.

My understanding is that memory is a commodity while CPUs are proprietary. Are you just banking on a long drawn out cycle?

 

[emergentmd]

I believe physical AI will become ubiquitous, including robots/optimus. They all will need a great amount of memory. I see a long cycle or it may eventually be noncyclical.

No one knows the future but I know that their Fwd PE will be close/under 5 if the stock prices do not move from current. MU is currently my top holding but I see a future where I will sell some to shift to NVDA which I find undervalued. I have made about 30% on selling Calls/Puts so my cost basis is around $5-600./share. Maybe eventually cut my stake in half and free roll the other half.

 

[bravotwozero]

Anyone here sat in a waymo cab? Would you try if given a chance?

 

[Splenda88]

Anyone here sat in a waymo cab? Would you try if given a chance?

I did when I was I san Francisco in ?April this year. It was a cool experience.

 

[thumbz]

Anyone here sat in a waymo cab? Would you try if given a chance?

Every time I visit Phx I exclusively use waymo. I'll happily pay an extra 20-50% to not talk to an uber driver. I've probably had 2 dozen rides and have had way fewer close calls or sketch experiences than I have in a similar number of Uber rides

 

[emergentmd]

After some more thought, we all know MU will beat and guide higher. We also know that this will not matter much if History matters. I believe the stock is priced in with all of the negative cyclical/competition/future oversupply news accounted for. I think MU goes up +8% after hours tomorrow and then goes +10% by end of next trading day.

Disclaimer - I know less than most investors.

 

[AlmostAnMD]

Every time I visit Phx I exclusively use waymo. I'll happily pay an extra 20-50% to not talk to an uber driver. I've probably had 2 dozen rides and have had way fewer close calls or sketch experiences than I have in a similar number of Uber rides

I flew down for a court appearance for work (taking payors to court, so satisfying). This trip involved 4 Uber rides--back and forth to hotel, back and forth to court.

2 of those 4 rides featured a driver tweaking out on meth.

If given an option I'd 100% take the robot

 

[Birdstrike]

Anyone here sat in a waymo cab? Would you try if given a chance?

Haven't done it. Would definitely try it.

 

[skougess]

Haven't done it. Would definitely try it.

Will never do it. Wild to me that we as a society are giving up our roads to computers (and frequently cars with literally no one in them).

 

[cyanide12345678]

Will never do it. Wild to me that we as a society are giving up our roads to computers (and frequently cars with literally no one in them).

Tesla on FSD has 1 accident in 6.3 million miles compared to 1 accident in 700k miles for humans.

Waymo has 60% less crashes than humans in comparable city benchmarks.

It is wild to consider human drivers over objectively safer computers.

 

[AlmostAnMD]

@Groove

Question/favor

I put a boatload of money into ABCL at 5-6 range, with the formal presentation of their phase 2 study for ABCL635 (hot flash drug, like no side effects and 58% reduction in hot flashes) coming tomorrow it's spiking up and I wanna part with maybe 10k of my 50k shares to reinvest elsewhere

Looking at some multibagger opportunities. Could you ask your AI machinery to see if MRLN would be a good speculative investment? It's an AI company that does aircraft-agnostic autopilot, has some gov't contracts already. If they can demonstrate efficacy on the C-130J early in 2027 the theory is the company will absolutely take off. Huuuuuuuge dropoff in stock due to post-spac share unlock. So, stock appears to be near the bottom with most analysts calling for a significant upside, assuming success, which obviously is not priced in currently.

Wondering your output is more nuanced than, "high risk, high reward", and thanks in advance if willing to consider looking at

 

[skougess]

Tesla on FSD has 1 accident in 6.3 million miles compared to 1 accident in 700k miles for humans.

Waymo has 60% less crashes than humans in comparable city benchmarks.

It is wild to consider human drivers over objectively safer computers.

I didn’t make any comment on safety.

I think the computer-centric rather than human-centric world that society is gobbling up is inherently bad leads us to maladjustment, moral decay, and most importantly, general unhappiness. The data generally supports this, but I know I am a minority on this thread where most would like AI to live their lives for them instead of experiencing it for themselves.