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Pretty damn cool. Citrini posted something about it today. Yes, it's slow. Yes, it's awkward. Yes, you could pay a human to do this for a fraction of the cost. But think about the big picture. These things will get cheaper, better, faster and at the end of the day you've got a single robot running a laundromat and honestly doing a pretty damn good job at it. This is the future of physical AI.
 
Family of 4 cars here, 3 Tesla and 1 bolt. ICE free. The whole family loves FSD, everyone uses it 90% of the time, and it is a life changer. Safer than human driving for sure and it is not even close. It is like choosing to not wear a seat belt, just makes no safety sense.

With this, I hate SM and the isolation/stress that this creates. I have essentially no SM. I prefer going out playing golf and meeting new people than home doom scrolling.

With this, tech and AI can be used for good or bad like everything thing else in life. I use AI to be more efficient and in all honesty, decreases my screen time. This gives me more time to be with my family, golf, work out, socialize.

I am not dumb to realize that AI will take over and many people's life will be badly affected but no diff than the apple IPHONE that has essentially turned my kid's generation into screentime zombies.

I use AI to improve my life and free up my time no different than having a house cleaner. If you choose AI to be a antisocial idiot, I can't fix what others do.
 


Pretty damn cool. Citrini posted something about it today. Yes, it's slow. Yes, it's awkward. Yes, you could pay a human to do this for a fraction of the cost. But think about the big picture. These things will get cheaper, better, faster and at the end of the day you've got a single robot running a laundromat and honestly doing a pretty damn good job at it. This is the future of physical AI.

SO you are saying we will need more constant memory, be indefinitely constraint, and memory will not be cyclical 🙂?
 
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@Groove

Question/favor

I put a boatload of money into ABCL at 5-6 range, with the formal presentation of their phase 2 study for ABCL635 (hot flash drug, like no side effects and 58% reduction in hot flashes) coming tomorrow it's spiking up and I wanna part with maybe 10k of my 50k shares to reinvest elsewhere

Looking at some multibagger opportunities. Could you ask your AI machinery to see if MRLN would be a good speculative investment? It's an AI company that does aircraft-agnostic autopilot, has some gov't contracts already. If they can demonstrate efficacy on the C-130J early in 2027 the theory is the company will absolutely take off. Huuuuuuuge dropoff in stock due to post-spac share unlock. So, stock appears to be near the bottom with most analysts calling for a significant upside, assuming success, which obviously is not priced in currently.

Wondering your output is more nuanced than, "high risk, high reward", and thanks in advance if willing to consider looking at


In your defense, Ghost doesn't like post SPAC speculative companies with lack of fundamentals. It also doesn't particularly like biotech so it might not be the best research desk for that. It's not a stock that would ever show up in its universe normally but the report has some high yield data though.
 

In your defense, Ghost doesn't like post SPAC speculative companies with lack of fundamentals. It also doesn't particularly like biotech so it might not be the best research desk for that. It's not a stock that would ever show up in its universe normally but the report has some high yield data though.

Thanks!

Oh wow, it does NOT think highly of MRLN. I still may put a stake in it but perhaps not as large as before lol thanks man

just perused it but will settle down and deeply read in a bit
 
SO you are saying we will need more constant memory, be indefinitely constraint, and memory will not be cyclical 🙂?
I just think it's more complicated than that. Yes, I think we will need more memory. Yes, I think it will be a continued shortage. But that doesn't mean price keeps going up. Like I said earlier...FY27 EPS makes it look stupid cheap. However, it's supposed to look cheap when earnings get inflated. When we get a cycle turn, earnings will be fall faster than price.

86% gross margin. That means every extra buck of price is profit. 50B quarter? 43B profit. Miss on blended ASP by 10% and that's 5B up in smoke. Several dollars of EPS in a single quarter. That can cause volatile gaps in price and the higher we ramp with estimates the more risk when the plane starts to rattle at high altitude.

I'm just saying...memory went from what...5 or 8% Capex spend to probably close to 40-50% now?

Hyperscaler "pacing", NVDA locking at lower memory counts in order to sell more GPUs, DRAM contract accelerations slowing or flattening out, there's several scenarios where the peak rate of price increases slows and starts getting behind you. With current margins that's what produces earnings drops, not saying that we now have a glut on memory.

Robots...sure, it seems very logical at first glance but these aren't data centers. 128GB DRAM + ~1TB NAND give or take? 50-80K robots over next year. Maybe 500K/yr by 2030? What's 500K robots x $800 memory = 400M. MU did ~42B in a single quarter.

I think robots....sure, will consume memory but that kind of demand is nowhere near what datacenters will demand. We're better off aiming for the land/orbital datacenter buildout which will consume way more memory.

I hope you're right on the MU earnings. Again, I'm still super bullish into next year but depending on what the stocks doing...I may trim at that point.
 
I likely will start to trim sometime next year. Holding atleast for the next 12 months unless something happens. I plan on eventually making NVDA (4th) my top holding and flip with MU.
 
Family of 4 cars here, 3 Tesla and 1 bolt. ICE free. The whole family loves FSD, everyone uses it 90% of the time, and it is a life changer. Safer than human driving for sure and it is not even close. It is like choosing to not wear a seat belt, just makes no safety sense.

With this, I hate SM and the isolation/stress that this creates. I have essentially no SM. I prefer going out playing golf and meeting new people than home doom scrolling.

With this, tech and AI can be used for good or bad like everything thing else in life. I use AI to be more efficient and in all honesty, decreases my screen time. This gives me more time to be with my family, golf, work out, socialize.

I am not dumb to realize that AI will take over and many people's life will be badly affected but no diff than the apple IPHONE that has essentially turned my kid's generation into screentime zombies.

I use AI to improve my life and free up my time no different than having a house cleaner. If you choose AI to be an antisocial idiot, I can't fix what others do.
I think it’s much more complicated than that. The world sets itself up in a way in which you’re forced to engage with technology to survive in 99% of cases. Then the tech CEO sociopaths do what they do and use that dependence to try and make their lives better at your expense.

I share a similar viewpoint to you when it comes to, for example, cigarettes. The difference is, people on this thread, and perhaps you, think we should embrace and even celebrate the inevitable “cigarette” takeover, rather than saying “Hey, this is BAD technology that makes everything worse. Use it if you want, but make no mistake about it being bad, and also we’re gonna regulate the hell out of it.”

As an aside, I don’t think your MU thesis is wrong, but I do think it’s a coin flip. I can’t wait to see if it pans out for you.
 
Has any entity done any research on what happens to AI usage when people actually have to pay for it? I mean ACTUALLY have to pay for it, not the subsidized version of what even premium and businesses pay now.

Im curious if there are any use cases that are clearly economically viable, and those that are laughably not. For example, I’m guessing that the standard B2C search-engine-replacement that exists right now is laughably non-viable.
 
I think it’s much more complicated than that. The world sets itself up in a way in which you’re forced to engage with technology to survive in 99% of cases. Then the tech CEO sociopaths do what they do and use that dependence to try and make their lives better at your expense.

I share a similar viewpoint to you when it comes to, for example, cigarettes. The difference is, people on this thread, and perhaps you, think we should embrace and even celebrate the inevitable “cigarette” takeover, rather than saying “Hey, this is BAD technology that makes everything worse. Use it if you want, but make no mistake about it being bad, and also we’re gonna regulate the hell out of it.”

As an aside, I don’t think your MU thesis is wrong, but I do think it’s a coin flip. I can’t wait to see if it pans out for you.
Nah, If I had a magic wand, I would kill SM/IPHONE and bring it back to the flip phone. But I know this is not going to happen and because it is inevitable, my job is to teach my kids how to navigate the future. Deep down, I hate how tech has made our society fat/lazy/dependent but I am not ignorant to the fact that it can be used for good which I try to use/teach my kids. Problem is most parents use it as a babysitter and turn them into doom scrollers.

I am giving MU 70% up rather than down only because the stock has been depressed. If it was at 1500+ now, I would prob scale back waiting to rebuy the dip. The dip has happened, the drawback has happened, the exuberance has pulled back, and now the stock will move with their fundamentals. No one can argue that their fundamentals screams buy.
 
Nah, If I had a magic wand, I would kill SM/IPHONE and bring it back to the flip phone. But I know this is not going to happen and because it is inevitable, my job is to teach my kids how to navigate the future. Deep down, I hate how tech has made our society fat/lazy/dependent but I am not ignorant to the fact that it can be used for good which I try to use/teach my kids. Problem is most parents use it as a babysitter and turn them into doom scrollers.
Agree 100% with this post. I’m sure there will be a few use cases for AI which benignly make our lives better. But they will be outshadowed 10:1 by the detrimental use cases. I’ll have to teach my kids and shield them from this tech in the same way I do from smartphones and technology while they are little. The masses of parents using iPads and even TV for their infants/toddlers as a pass time is absolutely insane to me. Get those dopamine flooders out of their hands.

The number of times I’ve heard in the ER “We took away his smartphone and so he threatened to kill himself and so we’re here now” is insane.
 
I didn’t make any comment on safety.

I think the computer-centric rather than human-centric world that society is gobbling up is inherently bad leads us to maladjustment, moral decay, and most importantly, general unhappiness. The data generally supports this, but I know I am a minority on this thread where most would like AI to live their lives for them instead of experiencing it for themselves.
Well....you like people. To me, taking Uber is simply hitchhiking by another name. I'd rather be driven by a computer than roll the dice on a human. Sure, I could get picked up by a fine chap or lady. I could also get picked up by someone unbalanced with nothing to lose.
 
Once Cybercab becomes ubiquitous, UBER drivers will be out of business so prob a mott point. Economically Uber will not be able to compete on cost/mile.

I have had some not so great drivers recently so happy to go driverless.
 
Micron Topped all guidance

Micron Technology just reported its earnings. It’s another big beat for the company:

  • Revenue: $54.229 billion, +379.3% YoY (vs. $51.069 billion expected by LSEG analysts)
  • Earnings per share (adj): $33.42 / sh (vs. $31.61 expected by LSEG)
  • Gross margin: 85.95% (company forecasted 86%)
86% Margin is ridiculous.
 
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Once Cybercab becomes ubiquitous, UBER drivers will be out of business so prob a mott point. Economically Uber will not be able to compete on cost/mile.

I have had some not so great drivers recently so happy to go driverless.

Uber and Lyft are not behind in the autonomous vehicle game. They both have a couple of cities where they have autonomous vehicles running. And in fact have millions more fully autonomous miles than tesla under their belt.

They have an inherent advantage over Tesla which is that they actually have customers. You can have all the vehicles you want, but you need customers to download your app and use it over something they’ve been using for the last 10 or so years. The entrance of a third company into what is officially a duopoly isn’t as easy.

The easiest path for Tesla is to actually buy out lyft and acquire the customers and essentially start at 25% of market share and integrate an option to summon a tesla robo taxi in the lyft app.
 
Uber and Lyft are not behind in the autonomous vehicle game. They both have a couple of cities where they have autonomous vehicles running. And in fact have millions more fully autonomous miles than tesla under their belt.

They have an inherent advantage over Tesla which is that they actually have customers. You can have all the vehicles you want, but you need customers to download your app and use it over something they’ve been using for the last 10 or so years. The entrance of a third company into what is officially a duopoly isn’t as easy.

The easiest path for Tesla is to actually buy out lyft and acquire the customers and essentially start at 25% of market share and integrate an option to summon a tesla robo taxi in the lyft app.
Tesla has millions of owners who will use cybercab when it becomes autonomous. Tesla can be profitable at a fraction of what it cost for human drivers. People will switch in a minute to save a buck. I think you are underestimating how quick people will convert.

Uber will find out why the autonomous game is so hard, ask Waymo who is still not profitable and lost about 20-30Bil since starting. Uber will go bankrupt unless they pivot to other revenue streams or if they are lucky, be bought out by Tesla for their base.
 
It's weird that Micron stock did not budge after a blockbuster earning. WTF.
I am super happy that it is flat and hope it stays flat tomorrow. I will be selling more puts and happy to take on shares at $1000. Institutional/hedge funds have essentially place a $900/share floor on the stock. I have been selling puts in the 800-900 range and have been printing without any cost of capital.

Sold most of my calls and locked in 90+% of the premiums. Going to sell more calls soon.
 
Tesla has millions of owners who will use cybercab when it becomes autonomous. Tesla can be profitable at a fraction of what it cost for human drivers. People will switch in a minute to save a buck. I think you are underestimating how quick people will convert.

Uber will find out why the autonomous game is so hard, ask Waymo who is still not profitable and lost about 20-30Bil since starting. Uber will go bankrupt unless they pivot to other revenue streams or if they are lucky, be bought out by Tesla for their base.
The autonomous cabs still have an Achilles heel they need to fix - they rely on available power grids and internet. In San Francisco a few months back a power outage put all the Waymo cabs out of circulation, leaving passengers temporarily stranded.
 
It drops about 50% of the time in the week after earnings. You have to remember that usually the stock has run up before its earnings announcement so there's no room for it to pop.
I’ve said it before in this thread, but short term (less than a few years) moves on stocks have nearly nothing to do with anything other than a simple supply/demand curve on the equity.

Warren Buffet said it best: In the short term, the market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

Stop trying to read the tea leaves on earnings reports, news, etc. if you are planning short term moves.
 
The autonomous cabs still have an Achilles heel they need to fix - they rely on available power grids and internet. In San Francisco a few months back a power outage put all the Waymo cabs out of circulation, leaving passengers temporarily stranded.
This is another Tsla advantage. Waymo Stopped b/c it depends on Central help but Tsla does not. Tsla, imo, has insurmountable advantages. The only path for Waymo is b/c its backed by google. Uber will fail b/c they will bleed money.
 
MU:

On the one hand, you have: Rev 54.2B vs 51B expected. Non-GAAP PS $33.42 vs $31.60. Guidance for next quarter up to 61.5B with a B. $38.15. All that is above the street. Great earnings.

The beat though was already the stock. Priced in. MU up more than 500% in a year. $2 beat on $31 print is like 6%. 6% doesn't re-rate the stock. Guidance landed right smack in the middle of the rumor mill and what the street was already whispering.

What bothers is 87% GM guiding for next quarter to 86%, below street. CFO talked about bonuses being a factor and more moderate rate increases after quarter but I'm telling you...all the market needs is a whiff in the first crack in the bet that rate of price doesn't "increase". Any hint of a peak will cause some sellers to come in.

Capex '27 will be 50B. 2028 supply wave being funded now. That's bullish for memory but I think the easy margin expansion is behind us and this is more of a company in a capacity build phase.

I'm not saying we don't have enough for the stock to trend up but it's not the best backdrop either, you know? Yields up. Oil up. Geo-political tensions.

Just to recap what I was saying yesterday and evidenced by the earnings. The stock already had discounted a long shortage. We know about the shortage. It rallies when we get evidence that the shortage is getting WORSE than the model. Either that or margins get another leg up. Neither of which is happening in this case. They said '27 and '28 are tighter than 2026. Now we know that next quarters margins are actually a little lower and Capex is higher. That's more of a hold. So, I bet if you see any weakness in the next few days, that's what investors are thinking about.
 
We all knew MU was going to beat and sell the news from profit takers was going to happen. Until they show that they are not a cyclical commodity, the stock will tread water with the bulls pointing to growth/low PE/demand while bears point to historical cyclicality.

Bottom line for me is that fundamentals scream that is is underpriced. There will always be noise; old ones dies and new ones will come up. But unless fundamentals change, I am bullish with a Forward PE of 6 and PEG of 0.04. Even if the stock doesn't move, 2027 PE will be even lower and eventually the bears will capitulate.

IMO, at worse MU treads water and I continue to sell PUTS/Calls which I have made about 300K in the past 2-3 months. I do not see how MU drops below 800 unless something fundamental changes which implies a forward PE of 4-5. Put this in perspective, Costco forward PE is 8x at 40 and in line with the Big 3 Auto. Just step back and think about this, MU with a margin of 86%, 300% YOY growth, Printing money, and in a hypergrowth AI period has the similar PE as a car maker.

This same thesis applies for NVDA that is trading at its lowest Forward PE in years. The only knock on NVDA is b/c it is the largest company? I just sold a Put Dec Strike NVDA 220 x 10 contracts. Break even 210, and happy to own it at this level long term. Sold a Put Dec MU exp Dec break even $920, similarly happy to own 100 more shares at this level.

Currently NVDA is my 4th largest holding and in the next 6-12 months, I will be buying shares to line up with MU as my top 2 holdings. Both seems like a no brainer to me.
 
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This is another Tsla advantage. Waymo Stopped b/c it depends on Central help but Tsla does not. Tsla, imo, has insurmountable advantages. The only path for Waymo is b/c its backed by google. Uber will fail b/c they will bleed money.
So what do you think is keeping Tesla from starting their own driverless cab service?

EDIT: Just looked it up on ChaGPT, looks like they will be, at least in Houston!
 
After some more thought, we all know MU will beat and guide higher. We also know that this will not matter much if History matters. I believe the stock is priced in with all of the negative cyclical/competition/future oversupply news accounted for. I think MU goes up +8% after hours tomorrow and then goes +10% by end of next trading day.

We all knew MU was going to beat and sell the news from profit takers was going to happen.
These posts were 36 hours apart. The conviction after the fact never gets old. “We all know” seems to be code for “nobody knows”.
 
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Well....you like people. To me, taking Uber is simply hitchhiking by another name. I'd rather be driven by a computer than roll the dice on a human. Sure, I could get picked up by a fine chap or lady. I could also get picked up by someone unbalanced with nothing to lose.
Over 90% of the time I hop into an Uber, and the Uber driver wants to start a conversation with me, I just want to be left alone to read on my phone, lol.
 
These posts were 36 hours apart. The conviction after the fact never gets old. “We all know” seems to be code for “nobody knows”.
Ha! I mean this is the theme for the entire thread. The initial post that started this entire thread was a big loser, but cyanide made a completely different play on the way down to salvage it and called it a “win”.

Highly entertaining to watch though.
 
Don’t they have a “quiet ride” option or something like that? I don’t Uber a ton but I’ve never had an issue.
Possibly. I don't take it enough to know. Also, the other issue with Uber drivers is that I often jump into an Uber car and find it either too hot or too cold, or they decide to roll down the windows, which I hate. In a Waymo I can easily adjust the settings without feeling like I'm intruding on a human driver's preferences. I like interacting with humans in particular settings, but to be honest, there are some things in life that I just prefer a machine take over completely.
 
Ha! I mean this is the theme for the entire thread. The initial post that started this entire thread was a big loser, but cyanide made a completely different play on the way down to salvage it and called it a “win”.

Highly entertaining to watch though.
I have yet to change my conviction in AI or memory. I have not sold one share since jumping in earlier in the year. Will I be right, who knows and really no one knows. But the point of this thread is give opinions/ideas on option/investing which I appreciate. Whoever reads this should make their own decisions

This thread is not to Monday morning QB with, "I Told you so" b/c everyone on here will tell you that no one knows the future.

Give me this thread over constantly complaining about EM, political shaming, and death of medicine.
 
These posts were 36 hours apart. The conviction after the fact never gets old. “We all know” seems to be code for “nobody knows”.
You read my msg incorrectly. "We all know" that MU was going to beat but no one knows how the market will react. I still believe they will be up 8-10% by end of Oct once profit takers close positions. Also, MU likely announce a massive buy back with their excess capital in Dec which should also be a Santa Headwind.
 
You read my msg incorrectly. "We all know" that MU was going to beat but no one knows how the market will react. I still believe they will be up 8-10% by end of Oct once profit takers close positions. Also, MU likely announce a massive buy back with their excess capital in Dec which should also be a Santa Headwind.
My guy, you literally said you thought it would go up 10% by end of trading day today. I enjoy your conviction of you putting your money where your mouth is, but take the L on this one and don’t backpedal. It’s in black and white.
 
You read my msg incorrectly. "We all know" that MU was going to beat but no one knows how the market will react. I still believe they will be up 8-10% by end of Oct once profit takers close positions. Also, MU likely announce a massive buy back with their excess capital in Dec which should also be a Santa Headwind.
I mean, we can all read the words you typed.
 
Uber that essentially is a 3rd party middle man joins with Lucid close to bankruptcy and Nuro that failed at competing in the driverless car race; What can go wrong.

Uber is in a hard spot. They know driverless is inevitable and their model will not survive needs to pivot but have no viable partner. They would love to partner with Tsla but I do not see why Tsla would need them. Once Tsla cybercab becomes approved and undercut Uber prices by >25%, how will Uber survive?
 
Uber eats, along with courier type delivery services will be their only hope. They also have a massive global footprint, which may keep them afloat in touristy areas due to name recognition.
 
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Give me this thread over constantly complaining about EM, political shaming, and death of medicine.
Agree there. Just wish people could be transparent when making a trade that goes sideways instead of changing their thesis 180 degrees and then pretending that was their contention the entire time. It would make the thread more fun instead of a delusional circle jerk. But that’s not really human nature, so here we are.

I realize you are in MU for the long term, but you’ve made two “We all know…” statements over the last 2 days about MU, both of which somehow ended up being wrong. Why not use language that’s less sure footed, when talking about day to day stock market moves?
 
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Agree there. Just wish people could be transparent when making a trade that goes sideways instead of changing their thesis 180 degrees and then pretending that was their contention the entire time. It would make the thread more fun instead of a delusional circle jerk. But that’s not really human nature, so here we are.

I realize you are in MU for the long term, but you’ve made two “We all know…” statements over the last 2 days about MU, both of which somehow ended up being wrong. Why not use language that’s less sure footed?
I thought I made this clear. I could have worded it differently but My prediction was they would beat (dub) and it would jump by 8+%. I was wrong with the 8% and in no way can anyone predict how the market reacts on news. MU did end +3% by EOD

But If you go through this thread, I have been in MU since the beginning of the year and continued to add through about 950. Continued bullish covered call and Cash Puts with the belief that it is way undervalued. I did not get into MU since about May and now it is my largest holding. I have yet to sell one share since taking a position. I do not see why doubling down on MU's undervalued thesis is "backtracking"

I, at least, will back my conviction with action. I sold another PUT today for Dec 1000 strike for $90 or $910 break even right before it jumped 4%.
 
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I thought I made this clear. I could have worded it differently but My prediction was they would beat (dub) and it would jump by 8+%. I was wrong with the 8% and in no way can anyone predict how the market reacts on news. MU did end +3% by EOD

But If you go through this thread, I have been in MU since the beginning of the year and continued to add through about 950. Continued bullish covered call and Cash Puts with the belief that it is way undervalued. I did not get into MU since about May and now it is my largest holding. I have yet to sell one share since taking a position. I do not see why doubling down on MU's undervalued thesis is "backtracking"

I, at least, will back my conviction with action. I sold another PUT today for Dec 1000 strike for $90 or $910 break even right before it jumped 4%.
Just to be clear you said to the effect of “We all know it will be up 10% EOD” and then “We all knew it would be a sell off”. The 3% EOD result is kind of neither of those things. I don’t want to talk in circles. I know you are long MU and put your money where your mouth it. JacobMccandles just pointed out the hilarity in your “we all know” statements that were 180 degrees apart, and I’m pointing out the hilarity in how the “we all know” statements were BOTH incorrect.
 
This whole thread is an opinion. Are we discussing the meaning of opinions now?
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