FAQ: Why cant an Adcom member answer my what are my chances (WAMC) post accurately?
Answer: Medical school admissions criteria are variable between the 125 allopathic and 23 osteopathic US medical schools, not to mention both reputable and non-reputable overseas programs including overseas programs tightly linked to US schools. Each school has a different approach to evaluating applications and deciding who to interview and how to rank different factors.
Admission to medical school is neither a strict numbers game or a crap shoot. I spend a considerable period of time reading every single essay and every single letter of recommendation associated with every application I evaluate. To be sure, one can look at MCAT scores and GPA and determine a first idea if someone is a likely fit at our school or any school, but that isnt what WAMC posters are asking. What they are asking is if the unique circumstances that gave them the set of numbers they have will be enough for the adcom to grant them an interview despite being below the average in either MCAT or GPA for any given school.
Since the way that applicants with below average numbers get an interview and get accepted is by a complete review of their application, including reading all of the essays, considering all aspects of their grades and reading all of the letters of recommendation, no one adcom on this board can take a one sentence, one paragraph or one page summary and answer. They cant do that for their own school and certainly not for all medical schools. Because OUR opinion, as adcoms, will be taken seriously by applicants, I feel obligated not to give an answer since I cant give a good one. I dont want my opinion to be given too much weight since it, by definition, is uninformed but carries the imprimatur of an adcom.
Nonetheless, I feel for you. Applicants legitimately want to know if it is worth it to spend their money on an application that has lower-than-average numbers. They want to be able to make decisions about post-bacc, SMP, and other life-options. They want to know if they have done enough to overcome their low numbers and have their application reviewed and taken seriously.
Since I cant do this question justice, and in fact am more likely to do harm than good, I have two recommendations. First, submit the question to the Pre-Allo:
What are my Chances/Where to Apply? thread or the Pre-Osteo:
What are my chances? thread(s). There, youll get a lot of opinions. Some will be helpful, others not. None might carry the weight to you of my opinion as an adcom, but thats for the better, IMO, since you can balance them all.
Second, is to make an appointment with an adcom somewhere or if this isnt possible, with a faculty member at a medical school. Tell them everything about your application that you can, the good, the bad, the ugly. Then listen to what they say. Do this with two or three adcoms and youll get something resembling a consensus in most cases. If you dont get a consensus, then likely you have a history that will cause a lot of uncertainty in the actual process itself.
Good luck to you and I hope that SDN can help you. In these threads, we may be able to help you frame some of the things that have happened in your life in your application. But we cant tell you what your chances are.