What are YOUR exact chances? and other statistics

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apr27 said:
I assume you will be doing an asian data plot, yes? By chance, is there a biracial option?
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Yeah, I can do the asian plot tomorrow if you want it. I'm working on one per day so that I can focus on secondaries and work too.

On your primary application, AMCAS presents you with lists. The options are a checklist rather than radio buttons, but generally people select one race or ethnicity that they identify most with.
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So I'm willing to be a little bit of a devils advocate here ,


With the data so far from the URM and hispanic, does that mean a slight alteration to the "LizzyM" should be used by URM when choosing schools?
 
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BMEN said:
So I'm willing to be a little bit of a devils advocate here ,


With the data so far from the URM and hispanic, does that mean a slight alteration to the "LizzyM" should be used by URM when choosing schools?
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Well, maybe LizzyM can stop by to impart some wisdom.

URM should make a difference based on the % chances, but it might be controversial to decide how many points to bump up the LizzyM score. She might already have a system, since I'm not super familiar with the LizzyM score methodology.

I've said this elsewhere, but those with a high MCAT but low GPA should probably subtract a point from their LizzyM score (per figure 6). Other things like a disproportionately low sGPA or a downward grade trend could also make you consider subtracting LizzyM points (and % chances too).

But overall, LizzyM and this percent chances stuff can only go so far. As CharlesDarwin pointed out earlier, it gets a bit futile to start saying "How much should I take off my % chances since I only have 6 months of clinical volunteering." But it is an interesting discussion
 
sector9 said:
Added Asian plot, per request.

I'll do the last one (African American) tomorrow!
Click to expand...

Nice job again.


Its a big difference compared to the others. Any data outliers or comments you care to make from your findings?
 
sector9 said:
Well, maybe LizzyM can stop by to impart some wisdom.

URM should make a difference based on the % chances, but it might be controversial to decide how many points to bump up the LizzyM score. She might already have a system, since I'm not super familiar with the LizzyM score methodology.

I've said this elsewhere, but those with a high MCAT but low GPA should probably subtract a point from their LizzyM score (per figure 6). Other things like a disproportionately low sGPA or a downward grade trend could also make you consider subtracting LizzyM points (and % chances too).

But overall, LizzyM and this percent chances stuff can only go so far. As CharlesDarwin pointed out earlier, it gets a bit futile to start saying "How much should I take off my % chances since I only have 6 months of clinical volunteering." But it is an interesting discussion
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That was the answer I was expecting.

I dunno exactly how it works, but maybe it above a certain "score" threshold the % chances/LizzyM score needs a fudge factor to account for URM. Of course at this point you are just trying to play around with statistics which really gets us nowhere in the long run :laugh:

I understand this is all subject to variability like you said. The way I see it, your analysis does the job for for all thing "relatively" equal.
 
sector9 said:
Well, maybe LizzyM can stop by to impart some wisdom.

URM should make a difference based on the % chances, but it might be controversial to decide how many points to bump up the LizzyM score. She might already have a system, since I'm not super familiar with the LizzyM score methodology.
Click to expand...

The LizzyM score is useful in determining where to target your applications. These beautiful graphs illustrate the proportion of applicants getting in somewhere at various gpa/MCAT levels.

URM applicants might be more likely than non-URM applicants to get interviews at specific schools with lower LizzyM scores. How much lower?? I'd say maybe 3 points. That might be conservative but the LizzyM score tends to be conservative because the goal is not to have people submitting all of their applications to what are, for them, reach schools.
 
Narmerguy said:
The graphs are nearly indistinguishable from Whites :confused:
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I think he's talking about the purple line on the Asian graph.

I went back and edited the post to add a comment to it. I think that it's just the low sample size that we have to work with. As you get to the extremes, n is low for each bin. The graphs work best for the "meat" of the curve (usually n>100 for the bin)
 
Narmerguy said:
The graphs are nearly indistinguishable from Whites :confused:
Click to expand...

I should have been more clear. The URM data set. Apologizes for the confusion.

Edit:

I think he's talking about the purple line on the Asian graph.

I went back and edited the post to add a comment to it. I think that it's just the low sample size that we have to work with. As you get to the extremes, n is low for each bin. The graphs work best for the "meat" of the curve (usually n>100 for the bin)
Click to expand...

I didn't notice that before, but now that I do it looks odd. But as you said the sample size must be really low.
 
LizzyM said:
The LizzyM score is useful in determining where to target your applications. These beautiful graphs illustrate the proportion of applicants getting in somewhere at various gpa/MCAT levels.

URM applicants might be more likely than non-URM applicants to get interviews at specific schools with lower LizzyM scores. How much lower?? I'd say maybe 3 points. That might be conservative but the LizzyM score tends to be conservative because the goal is not to have people submitting all of their applications to what are, for them, reach schools.
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Thanks for your input, LizzyM. Coincidentally, is there a single post or thread where you've compiled information/tips like this? I haven't seen one. The LizzyM score is a great concept, of course, and we're all grateful for your contributions to the forum.
 
sector9 said:
Added the last plot. All the URM data is there now!
Click to expand...

Great job.

Comparing the URM

at lets say 3.5 GPA and 30 MCAT

Hispanic-~78% acceptance.

African American-~90% acceptance.


10% difference isnt really that big of a difference with the number of applicants.
 
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BMEN said:
Great job.

Comparing the URM

at lets say 3.5 GPA and 30 MCAT

Hispanic-~78% acceptance.

African American-~90% acceptance.


10% difference isnt really that big of a difference with the number of applicants.
Click to expand...
I have a hard time with the Hispanic statistics because the schools in Puerto Rico have averages that are extremely low and 90%+ of their class is Hispanic. They really skew the data.

Others say it's similar with African Americans, but if you compare HBCs with Puerto Rican schools, HBCs have higher averages for both GPA and MCAT.
 
TriagePreMed said:
I have a hard time with the Hispanic statistics because the schools in Puerto Rico have averages that are extremely low and 90%+ of their class is Hispanic. They really skew the data.

Others say it's similar with African Americans, but if you compare HBCs with Puerto Rican schools, HBCs have higher averages for both GPA and MCAT.
Click to expand...

If thats the case would HBC's skew the GPA/MCAT correlation the other then?
 
TriagePreMed said:
I have a hard time with the Hispanic statistics because the schools in Puerto Rico have averages that are extremely low and 90%+ of their class is Hispanic. They really skew the data.

Others say it's similar with African Americans, but if you compare HBCs with Puerto Rican schools, HBCs have higher averages for both GPA and MCAT.
Click to expand...

the data in this case is compartmentalized though (ie. the 78% for 3.5/30 was determined using ~3.5/30 candidates, so the Puerto Rico data shouldn't really skew it since 3.5/30 is >90 percentile for those schools.)
 
It's scary knowing that I have a ~40% chance of not matriculating this cycle :eek:

But then again, I feel confident I will get in somewhere. :)
 
BMEN said:
Great job.

Comparing the URM

at lets say 3.5 GPA and 30 MCAT

Hispanic-~78% acceptance.

African American-~90% acceptance.


10% difference isnt really that big of a difference with the number of applicants.
Click to expand...

:thumbup:

Yay! I am an African-American and hopefully I get a 30 on my MCAT, since I have a 3.62 GPA :)
 
Nice job on these graphs! I just find it really crazy to think that a URM applicant that made 5 points less on the MCAT than I did will have the same chances as me. O well that's life I guess lol. Once again nice job!
 
Guys I was referred to post here as I'm curious and sort of worrying about the effects of my verbal reasoning score. I see the graphs (they are outstanding btw), and it looks like I have a decent chance (based on the graphs alone). My exact earlier post is below. Any input would be appreciated!

Bio 11
Phy 11
VR 7

29O
GPA 3.7
Science GPA (pre 2005) 3.8
Post-Bac GPA (all sciences) 4.0

Substantial volunteer hours, home health care provider, started a nonprofit to provide life assistance to uninsured and underinsured citizens of my community, Masters in Business and CPA (earned and used in my past post-bac life), substantial shadowing hours, sit on a couple of health care related committees in my community, ~5 good LORs.

I know my verbal isn't ideal but I don't feel I could raise it much without risking losing a point or two from the sciences. My advisor recommended me to fire off the applications and roll the dice based on my resume. I'm not looking for Harvard but am aiming for MD. I'm thinking of applying to ~17 schools and believe I will excel if given the interview opportunity. Just need the opportunity though! Thoughts?
 
tomba27 said:
Guys I was referred to post here as I'm curious and sort of worrying about the effects of my verbal reasoning score. I see the graphs (they are outstanding btw), and it looks like I have a decent chance (based on the graphs alone). My exact earlier post is below. Any input would be appreciated!

Bio 11
Phy 11
VR 7

29O
GPA 3.7
Science GPA (pre 2005) 3.8
Post-Bac GPA (all sciences) 4.0

Substantial volunteer hours, home health care provider, started a nonprofit to provide life assistance to uninsured and underinsured citizens of my community, Masters in Business and CPA (earned and used in my past post-bac life), substantial shadowing hours, sit on a couple of health care related committees in my community, ~5 good LORs.

I know my verbal isn't ideal but I don't feel I could raise it much without risking losing a point or two from the sciences. My advisor recommended me to fire off the applications and roll the dice based on my resume. I'm not looking for Harvard but am aiming for MD. I'm thinking of applying to ~17 schools and believe I will excel if given the interview opportunity. Just need the opportunity though! Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Hey tomba27,

Thanks for the kind words about the graphs and data.

I would recommend actually starting a new thread in the What are my chances section. (I know, each forum has their own specific expectation about how to get feedback!)

You will get more specific responses if you do that. This thread is more for looking at graphs and commenting on them. The usual commenters don't necessarily follow this thread, but they'll notice your thread if you start a new one

Good luck:luck:
 
sector9 said:
Hey tomba27,

Thanks for the kind words about the graphs and data.

I would recommend actually starting a new thread in the What are my chances section. (I know, each forum has their own specific expectation about how to get feedback!)

You will get more specific responses if you do that. This thread is more for looking at graphs and commenting on them. The usual commenters don't necessarily follow this thread, but they'll notice your thread if you start a new one

Good luck:luck:
Click to expand...

Lol. I'll eventually get to where I need to be! Thanks for the graphs. They boosted my morale today!
 
This is fantastic, I can't believe I haven't seen this before. Glad it was stickied!
 
sector9 said:
Thanks for all the positive feedback, guys.

Does anyone have any requests for a race/ethnicity graph that they'd really like to see? Eventually, I'll get to all of them.

I added the graph for white applicants, btw
Click to expand...

What are middle-easterns considered??? or Arabs?

Hopefully not white lol
 
Is it possible to change your ethnicity status for social security? lol
 
sector9 said:
notsureifsrs.jpg....

what does social security have to do with medical school admissions statistics?
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Dont they run a background check and all that! Your social security # shows what ethnicity you belong to
 
sector 9 the graphs you just posted here are just amazing, thanks for the time taken!
 
Forca Barca said:
Dont they run a background check and all that! Your social security # shows what ethnicity you belong to
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I don't think that matters at all. They run a criminal background check, so maybe if you stole someone's identity they would pick that up...
medhelp3 said:
sector 9 the graphs you just posted here are just amazing, thanks for the time taken!
Click to expand...
You're welcome:)
 
I have confirmed with the AAMC that the MCAT data is for the most recent score for each applicant.

I have edited the opening post to reflect that.

PM me if you would like more details about the information request I made.
 
Are there %chance data for California applicants? It would be nice to have a graph of that too :D
 
timonski said:
Are there %chance data for California applicants? It would be nice to have a graph of that too :D
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Sorry, that doesn't exist because AMCAS doesn't release the data on that.

However, you can look at this old post of mine where I talk about the disadvantage (or lack thereof) of being a CA applicant (I'm a CA resident too...) http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?p=11072818

The only admissions stats I can tell you concerning MCAT and GPA are from Table 21 from the AMCAS FACTS site. It says that the averages for a matriculant from CA were an MCAT of 32.3 (national average is 31.1), a sGPA of 3.59 (national average is 3.61) and a cGPA of 3.64 (national average is 3.67). The stats for the average applicant are in Table 20, but you can look those up on your own in Table 20 on this website https://www.aamc.org/data/facts/applicantmatriculant/
 
asrikrishnan said:
Nice job on these graphs! I just find it really crazy to think that a URM applicant that made 5 points less on the MCAT than I did will have the same chances as me. O well that's life I guess lol. Once again nice job!
Click to expand...

kautionwirez said:
It's scary knowing that I have a ~40% chance of not matriculating this cycle :eek:

But then again, I feel confident I will get in somewhere. :)
Click to expand...

timonski said:
Are there %chance data for California applicants? It would be nice to have a graph of that too :D
Click to expand...
I am grateful that you have posted this as a sticky, and I tip my hat to your excellent visualizations!

However, I am posting to provide a little balance to the discussion. First, I think it should be pointed out that this is in fact aggregate data based on past applicants, and overall this is a moving target that is difficult to assess except retrospectively.

More importantly, there is danger in trying to apply this information to an individual applicant. The used of terms like "my chances" or "% chance", while well intentioned, are misguided and indicate a subtle but important mistake. What is occurring here is the ecological fallacy. While seeing percentages is interesting and similar to probabilities - this is not what is being reported by AAMC. Saying 90% of X applicants were matriculated is NOT the same as saying that everyone one of the applicants who is in this group has a 90% probability of getting in.

Another way to put this is: "Some applicants, regardless of their numbers, will have no success, and some, in spite of their numbers, have unanticipated success." Or "We are more than our numbers"
While that may seem like a rather uninteresting and 'obvious' statement it is worth repeating.

My fear is that good candidates will be dissuaded from applying because they belong to a "cargo cult" that mistakes this population data for individual, and actionable, information. Believe me, I am the last person who wants to give people a false sense of hope. But I would rather people try and fail knowing they gave this "the old college try" than having others 'guarantee' their failure a priori by convincing them to NOT apply at all.
 
vc7777 said:
I am grateful that you have posted this as a sticky, and I tip my hat to your excellent visualizations!

However, I am posting to provide a little balance to the discussion. First, I think it should be pointed out that this is in fact aggregate data based on past applicants, and overall this is a moving target that is difficult to assess except retrospectively.

More importantly, there is danger in trying to apply this information to an individual applicant. The used of terms like "my chances" or "% chance", while well intentioned, are misguided and indicate a subtle but important mistake. What is occurring here is the ecological fallacy. While seeing percentages is interesting and similar to probabilities - this is not what is being reported by AAMC. Saying 90% of X applicants were matriculated is NOT the same as saying that everyone one of the applicants who is in this group has a 90% probability of getting in.

Another way to put this is: "Some applicants, regardless of their numbers, will have no success, and some, in spite of their numbers, have unanticipated success." Or "We are more than our numbers"
While that may seem like a rather uninteresting and 'obvious' statement it is worth repeating.

My fear is that good candidates will be dissuaded from applying because they belong to a "cargo cult" that mistakes this population data for individual, and actionable, information. Believe me, I am the last person who wants to give people a false sense of hope. But I would rather people try and fail knowing they gave this "the old college try" than having others 'guarantee' their failure a priori by convincing them to NOT apply at all.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the great suggestions! I added a new introduction to the first post to clarify this issue
 
Nice graph, original poster.

I was wondering if anyone would ever actually crunch the data and display it.

So, now that we have some data, there are definitely some issues:

1) Asians are discriminated against
2) Blacks are given priority in medical school admissions

Other races are stuck somewhere in between, with mexican-raced individuals receiving higher acceptance/matriculation than whites.

So, there surely does seem to be white discrimination (fascinating these days), but not as much as against asians.
Also, if Arabs are considered white, I definitely do not consider them white. I would consider many Jews to be white, for sure...
Hmm, perhaps anything race issue to pan out.

It'd be great if you could write up a race bias section.

Personally, I think it is really unfortunate that we all have to deal with the issues of race in the realm of academia and furthering knowledge. It shouldn't be on the application.

In reference to something v7777 said, I think these stats really could, in a way, be very reflective of acceptance rates. They're not exact nor showing the underlying mechanics of the psyche, but I could just as well assume the psyche, really. I'm going to assume that most people below a 3.4 GPA are going to go into medical school if accepted. Those above a 3.5 GPA could consider graduate school or medical school, but I'm going to truly assume they are more than likely going to medical school versus graduate school.

I am into the science of brain repair and regeneration, but I know that I would be better off as a medical doctor for such a field than being a scientist.
 
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So if I applied twice and lost with 3.63/36T, I must be really, really ugly :D
 
Well I had a pretty good guess as to what MCAT score I should shoot for with my cGPA and this validates my frantic studying!
 
Genecks said:
Nice graph, original poster.

I was wondering if anyone would ever actually crunch the data and display it.

So, now that we have some data, there are definitely some issues:

1) Asians are discriminated against
2) Blacks are given priority in medical school admissions

Other races are stuck somewhere in between, with mexican-raced individuals receiving higher acceptance/matriculation than whites.

So, there surely does seem to be white discrimination (fascinating these days), but not as much as against asians.
Also, if Arabs are considered white, I definitely do not consider them white. I would consider many Jews to be white, for sure...
Hmm, perhaps anything race issue to pan out.

It'd be great if you could write up a race bias section.

Personally, I think it is really unfortunate that we all have to deal with the issues of race in the realm of academia and furthering knowledge. It shouldn't be on the application.

In reference to something v7777 said, I think these stats really could, in a way, be very reflective of acceptance rates. They're not exact nor showing the underlying mechanics of the psyche, but I could just as well assume the psyche, really. I'm going to assume that most people below a 3.4 GPA are going to go into medical school if accepted. Those above a 3.5 GPA could consider graduate school or medical school, but I'm going to truly assume they are more than likely going to medical school versus graduate school.

I am into the science of brain repair and regeneration, but I know that I would be better off as a medical doctor for such a field than being a scientist.
Click to expand...
There is no such thing as "white discrimination" as much as there is "discrimination" when a school admits a 3.7 over a 4.0. The schools are looking for different things to add to their class. The experience of a black man/woman is universally different than those that are white, and given that black individuals are more likely to go into primary care, which is the field that needs most practitioners, it makes sense for a school to make these decisions.

And no, I'm not a black man/woman.
 
Is Cuban considered under the "Hispanic" bracket? I have been told several times that we are not considered minorities in medical school. Can someone clarify if this distinction is to both Cuban immigrants and Cuban-Americans ? Thank you.
 
seminolepremed said:
Is Cuban considered under the "Hispanic" bracket? I have been told several times that we are not considered minorities in medical school. Can someone clarify if this distinction is to both Cuban immigrants and Cuban-Americans ? Thank you.
Click to expand...
Cuban is considered under whatever you consider yourself to be. On the application, you will be asked to give your ethnicity and race among the following options (two separate questions):

Ethnicity

Not Spanish/Hispanic/Latino/Latina
Spanish/Hispanic/Latino/Latina

Race

American Indian or Alaska Native
Asian
Black or African-American
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
White

It's not any more complicated than that. So if you feel that your ethnicity is "Spanish/Hispanic/Latino/Latina" then that's what you are. It's as simple as that.

As far as if you will get the same URM bump, that is up to the medical school to decide.

Before 2003, only "Blacks, Mexican-Americans, Native Americans (that is, American Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians), and mainland Puerto Ricans" received consideration as URMs. Now, it's up to the medical schools to decide if you are underrepresented in medicine. The current definition is found here https://www.aamc.org/initiatives/urm/

As far as the stats go, the stats were collected based on what applicants said about their race or ethnicity. So the Mexican-American who grew up with a private jet and a personal golf course with 4 generations in the U.S. would be in the same "bracket" and the 21-year-old immigrant who came to the U.S. at 18 and has been working to support himself and his entire family throughout college would both be counted as "Hispanic" under the stats as long as both of them marked "Hispanic" on their application.

Some questions that some medical schools may think about when reviewing your app: Does this applicant show a desire to serve his/her community? Does he/she speak Spanish? Did he/she grow up in the community/culture and does he/she know of the struggles to receive adequate healthcare? Do we think that [insert applicants race/ethnicity here] patients will feel more comfortable visiting this person if he/she were a doctor than a doctor of another race? The answers to these questions will be more valuable to medical schools than simply the race or ethnicity that are put down on the app.
 
with a gpa of 3.6 from harvard and mcat 25 6/v, 9/ps, 10/bio, which schools in US would I have a chance of applying to? thank you.
 
Man this is phenomenal. I am sure I speak on behalf of all of SDN when I say that we are appreciative of your works.:thumbup:
 
I never really understood middle easterners being considered as white. It just seems like an oversight to me, or maybe schools don't really care if they're a part of their diversity?
 
blackcoat said:
I never really understood middle easterners being considered as white. It just seems like an oversight to me, or maybe schools don't really care if they're a part of their diversity?
Click to expand...
Some may also use "Asian." The AMCAS options are pretty limited though and I'm sure that many people feel the same way about other races or ethnicities that aren't represented well among the choices
 
According to the graph, having a low MCAT means you fail as an Asian.

:(
 
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