- Joined
- Apr 27, 2011
- Messages
- 11,139
- Reaction score
- 163
OK, I can't really tell you your EXACT chances of acceptance. Medical school admissions is much more than a game of chance. There are too many factors involved. But I can present historical acceptance data for GPA and MCAT in a more convenient way. I will use the word "chances" to describe this historical data, but keep in mind that it is not a true probability. An applicant with a bad letter of recommendation, personal statement, or interview skills might have no chance of admittance while another student with low numbers but a striking personality may be very successful. Refer to this post for additional explanation.
Instead of "My chances are x%" it is more accurate to say "Historically, x% of applicants with my GPA and MCAT were accepted."
Problem
The AAMC provides a table where you look up your percent chances in a certain bin. For example, one of the bins is for a MCAT score between 30 and 32 along with a GPA of between 3.60 and 3.79. The problem is that an applicant with a 30 on the MCAT and a GPA of 3.60 is shown as having the same chance as a student with a 32 on the MCAT and GPA of 3.79. My goal is to create a better way to look at your chances.
Important notes for using the graphs
Which GPA should you use? The GPA used in the graphs below is total undergraduate GPA. You may use this spreadsheet to calculate your GPA. Additional notes on the spreadsheet calculator can be accessed at the manual/FAQ. For official information on how your GPA is calculated, look at the following AMCAS resource. Your AMCAS GPA may be different from your school's calculation.
Which MCAT should you use? The MCAT score represented in the AAMC data is for the most recent score for each applicant. Keep in mind that each medical school may have their own policy on how they view multiple test scores.
What chances are displayed? The chances displayed in this post are chances of one or more acceptance at a U.S. allopathic (M.D.) school for all applicants. Your chances also vary depending on ethnicity/race. Those chances are displayed in subsequent posts. Also, note that these chances are only based on two data points-- cGPA and MCAT. A variety of other factors go into each admissions decision, so your chances may be higher or lower depending on the rest of your application.
On to the graphs!
The Best Estimate of Your Chances
Figure 1 (click on graph for higher resolution)
Find the colored line closest to your cumulative undergraduate GPA (cGPA) by using the legend on the right. Then find your MCAT score on the x-axis. Your chances are on the y-axis.
The solid lines correspond with the actual AAMC data. The dotted lines are merely interpolated lines drawn halfway between the solid lines.
Contour Plot of Your Chances
Figure 2 (click on graph for higher resolution)
3D Graphs of Your Chances
I have created a 3D graph that is not as useful for determining your chances but may be interesting to some people. The following are links to 3 different angles of the graph.
3D Graph
Figure 3 (click on link for picture)
3D Graph
Figure 4 (click on link for picture)
3D Graph
Figure 5 (click on link for picture)
Which is better: a LizzyM score composed of a high GPA/low MCAT or the same LizzyM score created from a low GPA/high MCAT?

The available data suggests that your chances are slightly higher if your GPA contributes more to your LizzyM score.
Figure 6 (click on graph for higher resolution)
Blue dots: MCAT contributes more to your LizzyM score than the average matriculant (more than 46.6%)
Red dots: GPA contributes more to your LizzyM score than the average matriculant (more than 53.4%)
Are underrepresented in medicine (URM) applicants with less-competitive stats taking large numbers of slots from overrepresented in medicine (ORM) applicants?
No, not large numbers.
Over the past three years, an average of 18,752 students have been accepted into U.S. allopathic medical schools each year (2898 URMs accepted each year and 16,412 ORMs accepted each year. Some applicants marked multiple races or ethnicities). Only 1469 (7.8% of total accepted students) accepted students were URMs with a lower cGPA/MCAT combination than their White and Asian (ORM) counterparts.
Keep in mind that there are currently 6 medical schools that primarily accept URM students to fulfill their respective missions: Howard University College of Medicine, Meharry Medical College, Morehouse School of Medicine, Ponce School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad Central del Caribe School of Medicine, and University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine. These schools combine for 513 seats per year. Not all of these 513 seats are exclusively for URMs; data available from U.S. News on three of the schools indicates minority student enrollment at 95.4%, 77.9%, and 95.2% for three of the six schools (the other three schools don't have information listed in the U.S. News database). The possible inflation of the 513 seats is mitigated by not including San Juan Bautista School of Medicine, which was accepting students through AMCAS for part of the 3 year time span represented in the Table 24 data.
After subtracting out the seats given to URMs at those 6 schools of medicine, there are approximately 956 seats (5.1% of total accepted students) given to URMs above what would be expected.
Please note that my definition of a URM applicant may be different from the definition each medical school uses. The current, official definition is found here. The definition represented by these stats is the old definition found at the same link, meaning applicants who self-identify as Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, or American Indian or Alaskan Native (on SDN, usage of the acronym URM generally follows the old definition). In this terminology, the races overrepresented in medicine (ORM) are White and Asian.
Instead of "My chances are x%" it is more accurate to say "Historically, x% of applicants with my GPA and MCAT were accepted."
Problem
The AAMC provides a table where you look up your percent chances in a certain bin. For example, one of the bins is for a MCAT score between 30 and 32 along with a GPA of between 3.60 and 3.79. The problem is that an applicant with a 30 on the MCAT and a GPA of 3.60 is shown as having the same chance as a student with a 32 on the MCAT and GPA of 3.79. My goal is to create a better way to look at your chances.
Important notes for using the graphs
Which GPA should you use? The GPA used in the graphs below is total undergraduate GPA. You may use this spreadsheet to calculate your GPA. Additional notes on the spreadsheet calculator can be accessed at the manual/FAQ. For official information on how your GPA is calculated, look at the following AMCAS resource. Your AMCAS GPA may be different from your school's calculation.
Which MCAT should you use? The MCAT score represented in the AAMC data is for the most recent score for each applicant. Keep in mind that each medical school may have their own policy on how they view multiple test scores.
What chances are displayed? The chances displayed in this post are chances of one or more acceptance at a U.S. allopathic (M.D.) school for all applicants. Your chances also vary depending on ethnicity/race. Those chances are displayed in subsequent posts. Also, note that these chances are only based on two data points-- cGPA and MCAT. A variety of other factors go into each admissions decision, so your chances may be higher or lower depending on the rest of your application.
On to the graphs!
The Best Estimate of Your Chances
Figure 1 (click on graph for higher resolution)
Find the colored line closest to your cumulative undergraduate GPA (cGPA) by using the legend on the right. Then find your MCAT score on the x-axis. Your chances are on the y-axis.
The solid lines correspond with the actual AAMC data. The dotted lines are merely interpolated lines drawn halfway between the solid lines.
Contour Plot of Your Chances
Figure 2 (click on graph for higher resolution)
3D Graphs of Your Chances
I have created a 3D graph that is not as useful for determining your chances but may be interesting to some people. The following are links to 3 different angles of the graph.
3D Graph
Figure 3 (click on link for picture)
3D Graph
Figure 4 (click on link for picture)
3D Graph
Figure 5 (click on link for picture)
Which is better: a LizzyM score composed of a high GPA/low MCAT or the same LizzyM score created from a low GPA/high MCAT?

The available data suggests that your chances are slightly higher if your GPA contributes more to your LizzyM score.
Figure 6 (click on graph for higher resolution)
Blue dots: MCAT contributes more to your LizzyM score than the average matriculant (more than 46.6%)
Red dots: GPA contributes more to your LizzyM score than the average matriculant (more than 53.4%)
Are underrepresented in medicine (URM) applicants with less-competitive stats taking large numbers of slots from overrepresented in medicine (ORM) applicants?
No, not large numbers.
Over the past three years, an average of 18,752 students have been accepted into U.S. allopathic medical schools each year (2898 URMs accepted each year and 16,412 ORMs accepted each year. Some applicants marked multiple races or ethnicities). Only 1469 (7.8% of total accepted students) accepted students were URMs with a lower cGPA/MCAT combination than their White and Asian (ORM) counterparts.
Keep in mind that there are currently 6 medical schools that primarily accept URM students to fulfill their respective missions: Howard University College of Medicine, Meharry Medical College, Morehouse School of Medicine, Ponce School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad Central del Caribe School of Medicine, and University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine. These schools combine for 513 seats per year. Not all of these 513 seats are exclusively for URMs; data available from U.S. News on three of the schools indicates minority student enrollment at 95.4%, 77.9%, and 95.2% for three of the six schools (the other three schools don't have information listed in the U.S. News database). The possible inflation of the 513 seats is mitigated by not including San Juan Bautista School of Medicine, which was accepting students through AMCAS for part of the 3 year time span represented in the Table 24 data.
After subtracting out the seats given to URMs at those 6 schools of medicine, there are approximately 956 seats (5.1% of total accepted students) given to URMs above what would be expected.
Please note that my definition of a URM applicant may be different from the definition each medical school uses. The current, official definition is found here. The definition represented by these stats is the old definition found at the same link, meaning applicants who self-identify as Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, or American Indian or Alaskan Native (on SDN, usage of the acronym URM generally follows the old definition). In this terminology, the races overrepresented in medicine (ORM) are White and Asian.
Last edited:
You just blew my mind.
