The "magic number" and the MSAR.

an issue is that msar reports *accepted* average numbers, while i think the *matriculated* average numbers like those provided by usnews are more meaningful for assessing one's own chances.

i think this is the case because there seem to be a number of schools that aren't quite "top tier" but accept applicants with the highest numbers. then when these applicants predictably turn down the acceptance offer, the schools admits lots of students off the waitlist with more reasonable numbers. now add to that the fact that a student with 45/4.0 numbers gets counted in the *accepted* stats at *each* school to which she gets accepted, but only gets counted once in the *matriculated stats*.

so accepted stats can end up a few points higher than matriculated stats, and this gives a misleading view of one's chances. it looks more difficult than it is.

Karina 07 said:

Please don't flame me for asking, I just had a thought and would like some clarification....

The "magic number" (MCAT + 10(GPA) - 1, I believe) that people keep talking about... could one, in theory, make up a list of these magic numbers using the MSAR and post the list somewhere by number? It wouldn't disaggregate them, so I believe it would not be actually breaking any copyright.

Click to expand...

There is a website with the MCAT and GPA:

http://www.medschoolready.com/app/medstatistics.asp?iMD=Y&iSO=AL&iST=&iCO=&cSU=++Refresh+School+Info

Does that website show matriculated or accepted?

Magic # School
76.9 Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine
74.8 Duke University School of Medicine
73.8 Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
73.5 Baylor College of Medicine
73.5 Harvard Medical School
73.3 Yale University School of Medicine
73.2 University of California, San Diego, School of Medicine
73.2 University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
73.2 University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas Southwestern Medical School
73.1 New York University School of Medicine
73.1 Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
73 Northwestern University, The Feinberg School of Medicine
73 University of Michigan Medical School
72.9 Joan & Sanford I. Weill Medical College of Cornell University
72.8 Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons
72.7 Emory University School of Medicine
72.7 Stanford University School of Medicine
72.6 Mount Sinai School of Medicine of New York University
72.6 University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
72.2 University of California, San Francisco, School of Medicine
72.1 University of Chicago Division of the Biological Sciences The Pritzker School of Medicine
71.8 Dartmouth Medical School
71.5 Mayo Medical School
71.2 Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine
71.1 Ohio State University College of Medicine and Public Health
71.1 Tufts University School of Medicine
70.9 Brown Medical School
70.9 Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California
70.9 University of Virginia School of Medicine
70.4 University of Colorado Health Sciences Center School of Medicine
70.4 University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry
70.3 University of Connecticut School of Medicine
70.2 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine
69.9 University of Massachusetts Medical School
69.8 David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA
69.8 University of Florida College of Medicine
69.8 University of Wisconsin Medical School
69.4 Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University
69.3 Oregon Health & Science University School of Medicine
69.3 University of California, Irvine, College of Medicine
69.3 University of Iowa Roy J. and Lucille A. Carver College of Medicine
69.2 Stony Brook University Health Sciences Center School of Medicine
69.2 University of Maryland School of Medicine
69.1 Boston University School of Medicine
69.1 University of California, Davis, School of Medicine
68.8 UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School
68.6 Saint Louis University School of Medicine
68.5 University of Minnesota Medical School - Twin Cities
68.4 University of Missouri-Columbia School of Medicine
68.1 Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine
68.1 State University of New York Downstate Medical Center College of Medicine
68.1 University of Cincinnati College of Medicine
68.1 University of Nebraska College of Medicine
68 State University of New York Upstate Medical University
68 University of Washington School of Medicine
67.9 Creighton University School of Medicine
67.9 Georgetown University School of Medicine
67.9 Medical College of Georgia School of Medicine
67.9 University of Arizona College of Medicine
67.9 University of Oklahoma College of Medicine
67.7 Medical College of Wisconsin
67.7 University of Alabama School of Medicine
67.7 University of Miami Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine
67.6 University of Kansas School of Medicine
67.5 Indiana University School of Medicine
67.4 University of South Florida College of Medicine
67.3 Rush Medical College of Rush University Medical Center
67.3 Texas A & M University System Health Science Center College of Medicine
67.3 Wake Forest University School of Medicine
67.2 Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University
67.2 University of Nevada School of Medicine
67.1 University of Kentucky College of Medicine
67 New York Medical College
66.9 University of South Alabama College of Medicine
66.9 University of Texas Medical School at Houston
66.8 Drexel University College of Medicine
66.7 Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine
66.6 Loma Linda University School of Medicine
66.6 Medical University of Ohio at Toledo
66.4 University at Buffalo State University of New York School of Medicine & Biomedical Sciences
66.4 University of South Dakota School of Medicine
66.4 Wayne State University School of Medicine
66.3 Louisiana State University School of Medicine in New Orleans
66.3 Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine
66.2 East Tennessee State University James H. Quillen College of Medicine
66.2 George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences
66.1 Temple University School of Medicine
66.1 UMDNJ--New Jersey Medical School
66.1 University of Tennessee Health Science Center College of Medicine
66.1 University of Utah School of Medicine
66.1 University of Vermont College of Medicine
66 Tulane University School of Medicine
65.9 University of New Mexico School of Medicine
65.8 University of Illinois College of Medicine
65.8 University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston
65.7 Medical University of South Carolina College of Medicine
65.6 Albany Medical College
65.6 Eastern Virginia Medical School
65.6 Michigan State University College of Human Medicine
65.5 University of North Dakota School of Medicine and Health Sciences
65.4 Uniformed Services U of the Health Sci F Edward Hebert SOM
65.4 University of South Carolina School of Medicine
65.4 University of Texas Medical School at San Antonio
65.3 University of Louisville School of Medicine
65.2 University of Hawaii John A. Burns School of Medicine
64.9 Chicago Medical School at Rosalind Franklin U-Med & Sci
64.9 University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences College of Medicine
64.7 University of Minnesota Medical School - Duluth
64.7 Wright State University School of Medicine
64.7 Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center School of Medicine
64.5 West Virginia University School of Medicine
64.3 Louisiana State University School of Medicine in Shreveport
64.3 Southern Illinois University School of Medicine
63.9 University of Mississippi School of Medicine
63.8 Florida State U College of Medicine
63.8 Northeastern Ohio Universities College of Medicine
63.3 Mercer University School of Medicine
62.7 Brody School of Medicine at East Carolina University
61.8 Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine at Marshall University
60.6 Morehouse School of Medicine
58.9 University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine
58.7 Howard University College of Medicine
57.5 Meharry Medical College
56.3 Ponce School of Medicine
53.5 Universidad Central del Caribe School of Medicine

these numbers are based off of the medschoolready stats

xanthomondo said:

these numbers are based off of the medschoolready stats

Click to expand...

you forgot to do the -1 and those look like the MSAR numbers... the USWNR are better since they are for matriculated students... I'd be willing to do it based on the USNWR numbers, but my subscription from last year ran out... hint, hint

what's "the magic number?"

xanthomondo said:

these numbers are based off of the medschoolready stats

Click to expand...

I thought those numbers looked a littel fishy... that explains it.

UMP said:

you forgot to do the -1 and those look like the MSAR numbers... the USWNR are better since they are for matriculated students... I'd be willing to do it based on the USNWR numbers, but my subscription from last year ran out... hint, hint

Click to expand...

yeah. i tried explaining this before the calculations . . .

UMP said:

you forgot to do the -1 and those look like the MSAR numbers... the USWNR are better since they are for matriculated students... I'd be willing to do it based on the USNWR numbers, but my subscription from last year ran out... hint, hint

Click to expand...

It makes no difference if a -1 is implemented. As long as one figures his/her personal "magic number" the same way, it effectively makes 0 difference.

xanthomondo said:

these numbers are based off of the medschoolready stats

Click to expand...

These numbers are consistent with my MSAR.

Who came up with these magic numbers? Do medical schools use this or is it something that students came up with? Just a bit confused on how much emphasis I should place on these #s....
Also, what would be considered a safe region (like + or - 1 pt?) and what would be considered a safety region (like - 2pts?) and a reach region (like +2pts?)
Thanks for the clarification guys and gals!

I thought that one's chance can be gauged by taking the "magic number" from the school and subtracting 1, and then comparing it to your own score.

Not to mention I think this is complete bull****, comparing my "magic number" i got flatout rejected from schools way lower.

I have a 69, and I didn't receive an interview from nymc, jeff, psu, and a few others.

do MSARs only come out once every couple of years? I see the current issue has data from the entering class of 2005. Will there be any info. on the class of 2006? 2007? etc? Thanks.

These number include the -1...hope it helps

Howard University 56.5
Southern Illinois 60.4
Mercer 60.9
East Carolina University 61.0
FSU 61.0
Wright State 61.8
Rosalind Franklin 62.0
University of South Carolina 62.1
Virginia Commonwealth 62.2
MSU 62.4
GWU 62.5
Texas Tech 62.5
University of Vermont 62.5
University of Tennessee 62.7
University of Arkansas 62.8
East Tennessee State 63.2
Uniformed Services U. 63.3
University of North Dakota 63.3
Medical University of SC 63.4
University of New Mexico 63.4
Albany Medical College 63.4
West Virginia University 63.4
UNDNJ 63.5
University of South Dakota 63.5
EVMS 63.8
SUNY - Syracuse 63.8
SUNY - Buffalo 63.8
University of Kentucky 63.9
University of Utah 63.9
University of IL - Chicago 63.9
NYMC 64.0
University of Kansas 64.1
UT - Houston 64.1
UT - Galveston 64.1
Texas A&M 64.2
Drexel 64.3
Northeastern Ohio U. 64.5
University of Oklahoma 64.6
Loyola 64.9
Medical University of OH 64.9
Temple 64.9
USF 64.9
University of Cincinnati 65.2
University of Arizona 65.4
Indiana University 65.5
UMDNJ - RWJ 65.5
University of Miami 65.5
Medical College of GA 65.6
University of Nebraska 65.6
Wake Forest 65.6
G'town 65.7
Rush 65.8
Creighton University 65.9
Jefferson 65.9
MCW 65.9
University of Connecticut 65.9
UC - Davis 66.0
University of MO - Columbia 66.2
University of Minnesota 66.4
U. Alabama - Birmingham 66.5
University of Maryland 66.5
OHSU 66.6
University of Iowa 66.7
University of Washington 66.7
University of Florida 67.0
Yeshiva 67.0
Stony Brook 67.1
Tufts 67.2
U. of MA - Worcester 67.2
U. Wisconsin - Madison 67.2
UC - Irvine 67.3
UNC - Chapel Hill 67.3
St. Louis University 67.5
Boston University 67.6
University of Rochester 67.9
USC 68.0
Dartmouth 68.1
Case Western Reserve 68.2
Brown University 68.5
UC - Los Angeles 68.5
University of Virginia 68.5
Ohio State 68.6
Emory 68.7
Mount Sinai 68.7
Pritzker 69.1
University of Pittsburgh 69.1
NYU 69.3
UC - San Diego 69.3
University of Colorado 69.4
Mayo 69.6
Stanford 69.7
Southwestern - Dallas 69.8
Northwestern 70.1
Vanderbilt 70.2
University of Michigan 70.4
Baylor College of Medicine 70.6
Cornell University 70.8
UC - San Francisco 70.8
Yale 71.3
Harvard 71.7
University of Pennsylvania 71.7
Hopkins 71.9
Columbia University 72.3
Duke 72.7
Washington University 74.4

note: some schools are not available.

AnesthesiaMD said:

It makes no difference if a -1 is implemented. As long as one figures his/her personal "magic number" the same way, it effectively makes 0 difference.

Click to expand...

schools get a -1... you don't get a -1... It's a silly system as it is... if you don't do any subtractions I think you need to be within 2 points to have a solid shot

AnesthesiaMD said:

do MSARs only come out once every couple of years? I see the current issue has data from the entering class of 2005. Will there be any info. on the class of 2006? 2007? etc? Thanks.

Click to expand...

A new MSAR comes out every year but there is a year or two lag in the data for it to be collected and analyzed.

UMP said:

schools get a -1... you don't get a -1... It's a silly system as it is... if you don't do any subtractions I think you need to be within 2 points to have a solid shot

Click to expand...

I thought about this the other day, and wonder if the "magic #" distribution is really that tight? You can see the range for MCAT sections in MSAR, but you can't really quantify it. I guess we'd need more complete stats to complete the magic # approximation. Any adcoms wish to enlighten us?

PseudomonasPAO1 said:

I thought about this the other day, and wonder if the "magic #" distribution is really that tight? You can see the range for MCAT sections in MSAR, but you can't really quantify it. I guess we'd need more complete stats to complete the magic # approximation. Any adcoms wish to enlighten us?

Click to expand...

I am sure the formula is not this tight or no one would get into Harvard with a 3.6 33. There has to be additions to the formula like where you did your undergrad, what your undergrad major was, if you have any other higher degrees, if you are outstanding at something... Plus you have to remember that the magic # is only the average, or sum of the medians as the case may be, so there are plenty of people who attend with much higher scores, which means people also get in with much lower. Maybe an adcomm could comment on this.

premeddick said:

I am sure the formula is not this tight or no one would get into Harvard with a 3.6 33. There has to be additions to the formula like where you did your undergrad, what your undergrad major was, if you have any other higher degrees, if you are outstanding at something... Plus you have to remember that the magic # is only the average, or sum of the medians as the case may be, so there are plenty of people who attend with much higher scores, which means people also get in with much lower. Maybe an adcomm could comment on this.

Click to expand...

The magic number is a starting point. Someone who has relatively poor academic performance as an undergrad and/or poor test scores, might have some extraordinary factors that play into the decision to grant an interview/offer admission despite the relatively poor showing academically. That person might pull down a mean, particularly if the school has a relatively small student body, but will have little, if any, effect on the median (it won't matter if the lowest MCAT score is 25 or 29 if exactly half of the stuents have MCAT scores at or below 33).

Medians are much better than means (what we usually call "average") because they are less influenced by outliers (either very high or very low). I've always figured that the average gpa and MCAT are bell curves that are fairly tall and narrow and they may have long tails of outliers on either end, or both ends.

With regard to getting rejected from schools where you have a higher number than the school's magic number... there are some schools that just might not bother with very high achieving applicants with the expectation that those applicants will not matriculate. Some schools resent being seen as safety schools. If they "waste" interview slots on people who can "do better", then come May 15, they will have no one in the class. So, I suspect that some schools screen out those who seem to be "slumming". Also, sometimes, those applicants seem to give off a "I'm better than these students" vibe when they interivew and that can lead to a denial of admission.

I'd say that 80% of the schools to which you apply should be within 2 points of your "magic number", 10-20% should be more than 2 points below your number (your safeties) and 10-20% may be more than 2 points above your number (your reaches).

AnesthesiaMD said:

These number include the -1...hope it helps

Click to expand...

Thanks so much for doing this!

Who came up with these magic numbers and how much emphasis should I place on them when choosing med schools to apply to?

The MSAR magic numbers coincide better with my application process results than the US News ones. Had 71.3, got into Tufts (very close to my number), rejected from all schools with numbers well above my own, interviewed at a couple slightly below my number (brown, ucla). Going by the USNews numbers, I would've expected to interview at many more "top teer" schools.

AnesthesiaMD said:

These number include the -1...hope it helps

Howard University 56.5
Southern Illinois 60.4
Mercer 60.9
East Carolina University 61.0
FSU 61.0
Wright State 61.8
Rosalind Franklin 62.0
University of South Carolina 62.1
Virginia Commonwealth 62.2
MSU 62.4
GWU 62.5
Texas Tech 62.5
University of Vermont 62.5
University of Tennessee 62.7
University of Arkansas 62.8
East Tennessee State 63.2
Uniformed Services U. 63.3
University of North Dakota 63.3
Medical University of SC 63.4
University of New Mexico 63.4
Albany Medical College 63.4
West Virginia University 63.4
UNDNJ 63.5
University of South Dakota 63.5
EVMS 63.8
SUNY - Syracuse 63.8
SUNY - Buffalo 63.8
University of Kentucky 63.9
University of Utah 63.9
University of IL - Chicago 63.9
NYMC 64.0
University of Kansas 64.1
UT - Houston 64.1
UT - Galveston 64.1
Texas A&M 64.2
Drexel 64.3
Northeastern Ohio U. 64.5
University of Oklahoma 64.6
Loyola 64.9
Medical University of OH 64.9
Temple 64.9
USF 64.9
University of Cincinnati 65.2
University of Arizona 65.4
Indiana University 65.5
UMDNJ - RWJ 65.5
University of Miami 65.5
Medical College of GA 65.6
University of Nebraska 65.6
Wake Forest 65.6
G'town 65.7
Rush 65.8
Creighton University 65.9
Jefferson 65.9
MCW 65.9
University of Connecticut 65.9
UC - Davis 66.0
University of MO - Columbia 66.2
University of Minnesota 66.4
U. Alabama - Birmingham 66.5
University of Maryland 66.5
OHSU 66.6
University of Iowa 66.7
University of Washington 66.7
University of Florida 67.0
Yeshiva 67.0
Stony Brook 67.1
Tufts 67.2
U. of MA - Worcester 67.2
U. Wisconsin - Madison 67.2
UC - Irvine 67.3
UNC - Chapel Hill 67.3
St. Louis University 67.5
Boston University 67.6
University of Rochester 67.9
USC 68.0
Dartmouth 68.1
Case Western Reserve 68.2
Brown University 68.5
UC - Los Angeles 68.5
University of Virginia 68.5
Ohio State 68.6
Emory 68.7
Mount Sinai 68.7
Pritzker 69.1
University of Pittsburgh 69.1
NYU 69.3
UC - San Diego 69.3
University of Colorado 69.4
Mayo 69.6
Stanford 69.7
Southwestern - Dallas 69.8
Northwestern 70.1
Vanderbilt 70.2
University of Michigan 70.4
Baylor College of Medicine 70.6
Cornell University 70.8
UC - San Francisco 70.8
Yale 71.3
Harvard 71.7
University of Pennsylvania 71.7
Hopkins 71.9
Columbia University 72.3
Duke 72.7
Washington University 74.4

note: some schools are not available.

Click to expand...

are these based on the most recent data? 2008-2009? thanks

go lakers said:

are these based on the most recent data? 2008-2009? thanks

Click to expand...

That was data from the 2005 entering class. There might be a new USNWR out now but i'm not sure.

How much should I subtract for a really bad personal statement and nonexistant ECs?

munnabhai said:

How much should I subtract for a really bad personal statement and nonexistant ECs?

Click to expand...

30

Doctor~Detroit said:

an issue is that msar reports *accepted* average numbers, while i think the *matriculated* average numbers like those provided by usnews are more meaningful for assessing one's own chances.

i think this is the case because there seem to be a number of schools that aren't quite "top tier" but accept applicants with the highest numbers. then when these applicants predictably turn down the acceptance offer, the schools admits lots of students off the waitlist with more reasonable numbers. now add to that the fact that a student with 45/4.0 numbers gets counted in the *accepted* stats at *each* school to which she gets accepted, but only gets counted once in the *matriculated stats*.

so accepted stats can end up a few points higher than matriculated stats, and this gives a misleading view of one's chances. it looks more difficult than it is.

Click to expand...

wow. you make an awesome point.

Doctor~Detroit said:

an issue is that msar reports *accepted* average numbers, while i think the *matriculated* average numbers like those provided by usnews are more meaningful for assessing one's own chances.

i think this is the case because there seem to be a number of schools that aren't quite "top tier" but accept applicants with the highest numbers. then when these applicants predictably turn down the acceptance offer, the schools admits lots of students off the waitlist with more reasonable numbers. now add to that the fact that a student with 45/4.0 numbers gets counted in the *accepted* stats at *each* school to which she gets accepted, but only gets counted once in the *matriculated stats*.

so accepted stats can end up a few points higher than matriculated stats, and this gives a misleading view of one's chances. it looks more difficult than it is.

Click to expand...

Is that really true? Wouldn't it really be more accurate to compare yourself to all the accepted applicants rather than just the matriculants? Matriculation is a decision that you make (once your accepted of course) and acceptance is a decision that medical schools make. When you apply to medical school your competing against all applicants not just the matriculants. So aren't acceptance averages really what people are looking for or am I just completely wrong? I mean that's what I would be gunning for, to fall within the stats of people accepted.

If you wanted to know if you truly 'fit in' at the school in terms of GPA and MCAT, wouldn't that be the scenario in which you use averages of matriculants instead of accepted applicants?

How accurate are the USN numbers for matriculants, anyway? Where do they get the info?

I'd be interested to hear what LizzyM thinks of the book. Advisers at my school distrust it and most administrators at universities loath reporting data.

Karina 07 said:

Please don't flame me for asking, I just had a thought and would like some clarification....

The "magic number" (MCAT + 10(GPA) - 1, I believe) that people keep talking about... could one, in theory, make up a list of these magic numbers using the MSAR and post the list somewhere by number? It wouldn't disaggregate them, so I believe it would not be actually breaking any copyright.

Click to expand...

I made a list out of sheer boredom because I am unemployed and out of school. The list is based on Exi's post of the MSAR for 2008-2009. There's a lot of the schools so props to Exi. The list is in Excel format. You put in your MCAT and overall GPA. It calculates your LizzyM score. And then compares it to each school's magic number on the list. Based on LizzyM's criteria for 'safety', 'sure to apply', and 'reach' schools in this thread it will show where you fall using the color coded terror alert level. Hopefully it's not copyright infringement if your using public data and listing only portions of it.

Here's the file:
View attachment LizzyM-MSAR 2008-2009.xls

Brilliant! Thanks for making this. There was a website that was similar but I put more stock in this document since this uses newer numbers.

It's fun to mess with, at the very least. More green than I expected... it's always good to know that I'm not hopeless.

SketchLazy said:

I made a list out of sheer boredom because I am unemployed and out of school. The list is based on Exi's post of the MSAR for 2008-2009. There's a lot of the schools so props to Exi. The list is in Excel format. You put in your MCAT and overall GPA. It calculates your LizzyM score. And then compares it to each school's magic number on the list. Based on LizzyM's criteria for 'safety', 'sure to apply', and 'reach' schools in this thread it will show where you fall using the color coded terror alert level. Hopefully it's not copyright infringement if your using public data and listing only portions of it.

Here's the file:
View attachment 8375

Click to expand...

Great Job! With my GPA (3.2) at least I have a couple green... *weak laugh*

It doesn't have all the states, are you missing data? I only have the 07-08 MSAR... dunno if that would help.

1John4:8 said:

Great Job! With my GPA (3.2) at least I have a couple green... *weak laugh*

It doesn't have all the states, are you missing data? I only have the 07-08 MSAR... dunno if that would help.

Click to expand...

Thanks...I only have that info. It looks like people only want info from 08-09 though since things are getting more and more competitive every year. Maybe if I can find one at my local community college or if the mods let exi post all the rest of the schools, I'll finish it. Times are tough for us pre-meds nowadays. Well, not like it was ever easy, but some of these averages scare the crap out of me.

This website does some of the same stuff that the "magic number" does...

http://www.studentdoc.com/medfind.html

It also incorporates state of residence. The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but it's a good tool.

SketchLazy said:

I made a list out of sheer boredom because I am unemployed and out of school. The list is based on Exi's post of the MSAR for 2008-2009. There's a lot of the schools so props to Exi. The list is in Excel format. You put in your MCAT and overall GPA. It calculates your LizzyM score. And then compares it to each school's magic number on the list. Based on LizzyM's criteria for 'safety', 'sure to apply', and 'reach' schools in this thread it will show where you fall using the color coded terror alert level. Hopefully it's not copyright infringement if your using public data and listing only portions of it.

Here's the file:
View attachment 8375

Click to expand...

thanks for this. i wish i didn't live in ca though

SketchLazy said:

I made a list out of sheer boredom because I am unemployed and out of school. The list is based on Exi's post of the MSAR for 2008-2009. There's a lot of the schools so props to Exi. The list is in Excel format. You put in your MCAT and overall GPA. It calculates your LizzyM score. And then compares it to each school's magic number on the list. Based on LizzyM's criteria for 'safety', 'sure to apply', and 'reach' schools in this thread it will show where you fall using the color coded terror alert level. Hopefully it's not copyright infringement if your using public data and listing only portions of it.

Here's the file:
View attachment 8375

Click to expand...

Haha, wow, thanks for the file. I think it gave me a false sense of confidence.

SketchLazy said:

I made a list out of sheer boredom because I am unemployed and out of school. The list is based on Exi's post of the MSAR for 2008-2009. There's a lot of the schools so props to Exi. The list is in Excel format. You put in your MCAT and overall GPA. It calculates your LizzyM score. And then compares it to each school's magic number on the list. Based on LizzyM's criteria for 'safety', 'sure to apply', and 'reach' schools in this thread it will show where you fall using the color coded terror alert level. Hopefully it's not copyright infringement if your using public data and listing only portions of it.

Here's the file:
View attachment 8375

Click to expand...

Hmmm, I don't know, GWU is a "safety" school for me? If it were "go for it," it'd be ok, but SAFETY?

My only gripe with that file is that it doesn't consider state residency - which would slaughter lots of the "safeties." I did see a website which did the same thing, but also considered OOS status when assigning reach/go for it/safety status. What's the point of Mercer having superlow statistics if they don't take international applicants (and I think, no OOS either)?

Critical Mass said:

This list is cute and represents a lot of hard work. Unfortunately it fails to factor in the single most important quality in an application which is state of residence. I would go so far as to say that 90% of the in-staters in my class (which is most of the class) didn't get any allo offers oos, and there is only one med school in my state.

Click to expand...

Ah, should've read before I posted.

AnesthesiaMD said:

That was data from the 2005 entering class. There might be a new USNWR out now but i'm not sure.

Click to expand...

Here are magic numbers from the latest USNWR (2006 entering class). These are 3*MCAT (since they show the average of the three sections) + 10*GPA :

Washington University in St. Louis 75
Columbia U. College of Physicians and Surgeons (NY) 73.5
Johns Hopkins University (MD) 73.3
Harvard University (MA) 73.2
University of Pennsylvania 72.2
Baylor College of Medicine (TX) 71.9
Yale University (CT) 71.7
University of Michigan–Ann Arbor 71.5
Vanderbilt University (TN) 71.5
Cornell University (Weill) (NY) 71.4
University of Chicago (Pritzker) 71.4
Stanford University (CA) 71.3
Mayo Medical School (MN) 70.9
University of California–Los Angeles (Geffen) 70.9
University of California–San Diego 70.9
University of California–San Francisco 70.8
University of Pittsburgh 70.7
Duke University (NC) 70.7
Northwestern University (Feinberg) (IL) 70.7
New York University 70.4
U. of Texas Southwestern Medical Center–Dallas 70.4
University of Virginia 70.3
Brown University (RI) 70.1
Case Western Reserve University (OH) 69.9
Emory University (GA) 69.9
Mount Sinai School of Medicine (NY) 69.8
University of Colorado–Denver and Health Sciences Center 69.7
Ohio State University 69.6
University of Florida 69.5
Dartmouth Medical School (NH) 69.1
University of California–Irvine 69.1
University of Wisconsin–Madison 68.6
University of North Carolina–Chapel Hill 68.5
University of Rochester (NY) 68.4
University of Southern California (Keck) 68.4
University of Iowa (Carver) 68.2
Yeshiva University (Einstein) (NY) 68.2
Stony Brook University (NY) 68.1
St. Louis University 68
University of Miami (Miller) (FL) 67.9
University of Washington 67.6
University of Alabama–Birmingham 67.6
University of Cincinnati 67.6
Indiana University–Indianapolis 67.6
Tufts University (MA) 67.6
Georgetown University (DC) 67.4
University of Connecticut 67.4
Oregon Health and Science University 67.2
University of Maryland 67.2
University of Massachusetts–Worcester 67
UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School 67
Boston University 66.9
University of California–Davis 66.9
University of Minnesota Medical School 66.7
Medical College of Wisconsin 66.6
Jefferson Medical College (PA) 66.6
Wake Forest University (NC) 66.5
University of Texas Medical Branch–Galveston 66.4
University of Vermont 65.7
University of Illinois–Chicago 65.7
Tulane University (LA) 65.6
University of Utah 65.6
Medical University of South Carolina 64.9
Univ. of Texas Health Science Center–Houston 64.9

Jacks Mannequin said:

Haha, wow, thanks for the file. I think it gave me a false sense of confidence.

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Yeah I noticed that with people with high numbers, this indicator just gets crazy. At a certain point, every school becomes a 'safety'. I edited my list to include most of the osteopathic schools also and they all turned blue. It's absurd to think that any of them would be safeties. Like LizzyM said, average GPA and MCAT are just a starting point in your consideration to apply. The terror alert level is just for fun, but is based on what she has said throughout some posts concerning the number. Use it for laughs...or if you see a lot of red, to dash your dreams of ever becoming a doctor.

I know this thread is pretty old, but I just realized those numbers seem pretty high... for instance according to this link: http://www.free-consumer-info.com/medical_school.htm?gclid=CKyTzZL3towCFQVpFQod-mB2Rw, UM and UF's "magic numbers" were previously 64.2 and 64.9, respectively. You have them listed as 67.9 and 69.5, a jump of 3.7 for UM and 4.6 for UF. Has it really gotten that much more competitive?

linuxizer said:

Here are magic numbers from the latest USNWR (2006 entering class). These are 3*MCAT (since they show the average of the three sections) + 10*GPA :

Washington University in St. Louis 75
Columbia U. College of Physicians and Surgeons (NY) 73.5
Johns Hopkins University (MD) 73.3
Harvard University (MA) 73.2
University of Pennsylvania 72.2
Baylor College of Medicine (TX) 71.9
Yale University (CT) 71.7
University of Michigan–Ann Arbor 71.5
Vanderbilt University (TN) 71.5
Cornell University (Weill) (NY) 71.4
University of Chicago (Pritzker) 71.4
Stanford University (CA) 71.3
Mayo Medical School (MN) 70.9
University of California–Los Angeles (Geffen) 70.9
University of California–San Diego 70.9
University of California–San Francisco 70.8
University of Pittsburgh 70.7
Duke University (NC) 70.7
Northwestern University (Feinberg) (IL) 70.7
New York University 70.4
U. of Texas Southwestern Medical Center–Dallas 70.4
University of Virginia 70.3
Brown University (RI) 70.1
Case Western Reserve University (OH) 69.9
Emory University (GA) 69.9
Mount Sinai School of Medicine (NY) 69.8
University of Colorado–Denver and Health Sciences Center 69.7
Ohio State University 69.6
University of Florida 69.5
Dartmouth Medical School (NH) 69.1
University of California–Irvine 69.1
University of Wisconsin–Madison 68.6
University of North Carolina–Chapel Hill 68.5
University of Rochester (NY) 68.4
University of Southern California (Keck) 68.4
University of Iowa (Carver) 68.2
Yeshiva University (Einstein) (NY) 68.2
Stony Brook University (NY) 68.1
St. Louis University 68
University of Miami (Miller) (FL) 67.9
University of Washington 67.6
University of Alabama–Birmingham 67.6
University of Cincinnati 67.6
Indiana University–Indianapolis 67.6
Tufts University (MA) 67.6
Georgetown University (DC) 67.4
University of Connecticut 67.4
Oregon Health and Science University 67.2
University of Maryland 67.2
University of Massachusetts–Worcester 67
UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School 67
Boston University 66.9
University of California–Davis 66.9
University of Minnesota Medical School 66.7
Medical College of Wisconsin 66.6
Jefferson Medical College (PA) 66.6
Wake Forest University (NC) 66.5
University of Texas Medical Branch–Galveston 66.4
University of Vermont 65.7
University of Illinois–Chicago 65.7
Tulane University (LA) 65.6
University of Utah 65.6
Medical University of South Carolina 64.9
Univ. of Texas Health Science Center–Houston 64.9

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LizzyM said:

30

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does PS and EC mean that much?

uhohspaghettio said:

does PS and EC mean that much?

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If it's "decent", no. But if it's bad...

For example, let's say someone had the amazing 4.0/40 we all covet but in his PS, he bashes doctors like no other, and does absolutely no ECs because he claims school is "taking up his time". On the LizzyM scale, that's where it's worth 30 (-30, actually). I don't know what it'd be on a positive scale, but your PS would have to stand out from everyone else's (and ECs don't really count, because I'm sure they've had some people with amazing ECs better than yours).

SAspursfan said:

Has it really gotten that much more competitive?

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All I know is what USNWR tells me....

Ari