Well, if you look in the MSAR, you will see that the proportion of URM applicants accepted is the same as the proportion of non-URM applicants accepted. In other words, if you look at the total number of people who applied and the total number of people who matriculate, the matriculation % is generally in the neighborhood of 40% (varies from year to year) -- and it is generally about equal for URMs and non-URMs. However, the average GPA and MCAT for matriculating URMs is lower than for non-URMs.
So a URM who applies has the same chances of getting in as a non-URM who applies -- about 40% or whatever. But some people look at the comparison a different way -- a URM vs. a non-URM with otherwise identical applications -- and they say that the URM is more likely to be chosen.
