10 interviews: the magic number?

[threecoins]

Hey Everybody, I have got 4 interviews so far. I have heard that 10 interviews is the "magic number" after which your chances being matched get really high. Can any one please explain to me the math behind this? I know that each program interviews around 10 applicants for each position so your chance in every individual program is 10% but that is JUST for one program, I mean does 10 % in each program add up to be 100% if you do 10 interviews? Any body has a clue how this works?

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[Suppuration]

Hey Everybody, I have got 4 interviews so far. I have heard that 10 interviews is the "magic number" after which your chances being matched get really high. Can any one please explain to me the math behind this? I know that each program interviews around 10 applicants for each position so your chance in every individual program is 10% but that is JUST for one program, I mean does 10 % in each program add up to be 100% if you do 10 interviews? Any body has a clue how this works?

The real magic number is seven. Statistically, if you don't match within your first seven then your chance of matching at eight and up is rather small. This rule of thumb probably breaks down for highly competitive specialties where people have to rank dozens of programs in order to hedge their bets.

You can think of it this way: if you can't match from 1-7 then you suck and 8+ probably won't want you either.

 

[Smurfette]

The 10:1 ratio for interviewees is not hard and fast; it depends on what you are applying to. Some places are much higher and some are much lower.

Also, for FP, peds and IM 5 interviews is *usually* enough if you are an average candidate unless you're going for a top competitive program.

 

[b&ierstiefel]

You want to interview at enough places so that you can rank 7 places. Statistically, your chance of matching are high when you've ranked 7 places. So let's say you interview at 10 programs and you hate 3 of them. You can still rank 7 places.

 

[threecoins]

thx folks, Ok now why are your chances statistically high with 7 interviews?
by the way, Does not anyone know the MATH behind these numbers? why 10, why 7 , why 5? is there a way to calculate this or is it just out of experience?is it only based on how many applicants a program intevriews for one spot?

 

[InternalWhizzzz]

Hey Everybody, I have got 4 interviews so far. I have heard that 10 interviews is the "magic number" after which your chances being matched get really high. Can any one please explain to me the math behind this? I know that each program interviews around 10 applicants for each position so your chance in every individual program is 10% but that is JUST for one program, I mean does 10 % in each program add up to be 100% if you do 10 interviews? Any body has a clue how this works?

10 interviews for what program? I had a friend who had 11 interviews for Derm, and she didn't match anywhere...poor girl I sincerely recommend applying to as many programs as possible, and racking up as many interviews as you can.

 

[threecoins]

does it make any difference if you are applying to more than one specialty ..I mean is it 10 per specialty or 10 overall? It is clear that your competitiveness and the specialty you are applying too makes a difference.

 

[medlaw06]

does it make any difference if you are applying to more than one specialty ..I mean is it 10 per specialty or 10 overall? It is clear that your competitiveness and the specialty you are applying too makes a difference.

hey threecoins...while I am also in the applying phase for residencies also, my fiance started her residency last year...she applied to a rather tough field (anesthesiology) while I am applying to a relatively much less competitive field (IM) AND a relatively equally competitive field (EM) also (yes...I can't decide b/w the 2)...

in any case, from what I saw her go through last year, she interviewed @ 8 places (from MGH to GW to St. Joe's in Newark) and ended up matching @ her # 2 place....in regards to your question about the MATH perspective, I think the # itself (whether 7 or 10 or whatever) is more anecdotal than anything with any real "substance" behind it....it's something that people have through their interview and ranking experiences have kinda just made into an "unwritten rule"....now, whether there is any "true" math behind it, I am not aware of that, but I would say not.....

in regards to your other question (about 10 overall or 10 per specialty), I think it's 10 overall....for example, I am applying to both IM and EM since I really do like both....now, going by the rule of 10 (or 7), if I interview at like 6 IM places and 4 EM places, I still have interviewed at 10 and my chances of gettign into ONE of those programs are pretty good (whether its IM or EM program)....

HOWEVER, this is JUST MY OPINION, and I could be COMPLETELY wrong on this, but this is what my experiences have "taught" me so far....

hopefully, others who have already gone through such things can also provide more (useful?) input....

good questions though...

 

[medlaw06]

So, I was looking at Frieda just to see when interview dates were and other general browsing (bored more than anything else), and I came across something interesting....it seems like places interview about 10X the # of spots they have available....now, I was JUST searching through NYC programs in IM and EM. I think this is why people say that if you interview at 10 places, you'll match at one (just a generality)...unless you are a crappy interviewer....

just an observation....

 

[APACHE3]

I've asked before, but if a program has 10 categorical spots, interview 100, how many people will they place on their rank list? 20?30?

 

[Poety]

if p is the chance of being "ranked highly" by a program (say, in the top k places if they have k places) then your chance of not being ranked is (1-p). If you apply to n programs, then the chance of being ranked by at least one is [1-(1-p)^n]. This assumes that the trials are independent which is not true because candidates are removed as the match progresses which affects your odds at other programs. Even so, you can use this as a rough guide.

I don't even understand what that meant.

 

[medlaw06]

if p is the chance of being "ranked highly" by a program (say, in the top k places if they have k places) then your chance of not being ranked is (1-p). If you apply to n programs, then the chance of being ranked by at least one is [1-(1-p)^n]. This assumes that the trials are independent which is not true because candidates are removed as the match progresses which affects your odds at other programs. Even so, you can use this as a rough guide.

huh? I'm sure you are right, but english, man!! How can I use it as a rough giude, when the guide is written in a language I can't understand

 

[medlaw06]

I've asked before, but if a program has 10 categorical spots, interview 100, how many people will they place on their rank list? 20?30?

hey apache....according to one of the people in another forum (who apparently is involved in this stuff) said that usually they rank all that they interview minus those whose interviews were horrible (socio-paths, came in smelling of weed or alcohol--which BTW has happened before--, or those who they think will not fit into their program)...so there REALLY is no way to judge that....

hope this helped