10 MILLION DOLLARS

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Conclusion
A particularly brutal market downturn in early retirement can devastate your portfolio and threaten your freedom. However, there are certainly ways to mitigate the risk. I recommend that you target a 3% withdrawal rate, maintain reasonable but not excessive equity exposure (60-80%), consider a several year cash cushion, pursue a low-stress side gig in retirement, and cut spending in a market downturn. If you can do those things, you will have a very high likelihood of maintaining your freedom in retirement.

Remember, It’s Not About the Money; It’s About the Freedom


Don't Lose Your Freedom: Mitigating Sequence of Returns Risk - Live Free MD

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Consider working at a BFE location that pays >90% MGMA for 5-8 years once you get out.
Kind of boring, but cost of living is negligible and it's an easy way to get rid of debt and build a solid retirement portfolio that is aggressive during your early years of practice. Once you've had enough of BFE, move to your dream location with a big leg up on retirement.
It's definitely a sacrifice but if you can muster it, it can be a good way to get to retirement early.
 
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Consider working at a BFE location that pays >90% MGMA for 5-8 years once you get out.
Kind of boring, but cost of living is negligible and it's an easy way to get rid of debt and build a solid retirement portfolio that is aggressive during your early years of practice. Once you've had enough of BFE, move to your dream location with a big leg up on retirement.
It's definitely a sacrifice but if you can muster it, it can be a good way to get to retirement early.
Not that easy to find these jobs.
 
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Harder to find discipline and will power to stay at such job for that many years.
 
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Consider working at a BFE location that pays >90% MGMA for 5-8 years once you get out.
Kind of boring, but cost of living is negligible and it's an easy way to get rid of debt and build a solid retirement portfolio that is aggressive during your early years of practice. Once you've had enough of BFE, move to your dream location with a big leg up on retirement.
It's definitely a sacrifice but if you can muster it, it can be a good way to get to retirement early.

This is essentially what I’m doing. Not really BFE but a mid-major city. Combine that with my significant other who is also a physician in a higher earning potential field and I don’t think $10 mil is out of the question by 65. Our goal is to have a $1 mil in investments (not including house) by 7 years out.

These jobs do exist, I interviewed at several with a similar pay scale, you just have to be willing to live in less desirable portions of the country. These jobs are NOT an gasworks. You have to either know someone or make cold calls. I did both.
 
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Consider working at a BFE location that pays >90% MGMA for 5-8 years once you get out.
Kind of boring, but cost of living is negligible and it's an easy way to get rid of debt and build a solid retirement portfolio that is aggressive during your early years of practice. Once you've had enough of BFE, move to your dream location with a big leg up on retirement.
It's definitely a sacrifice but if you can muster it, it can be a good way to get to retirement early.


Idk. I'd rather live in a place I like in my 30s and 40's and have less spending money in retirement.
 
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I'd rather live in a place I like in my 30s and 40's and have less spending money in retirement.

It's a balancing act for sure. It's also way more palatable to do the BFE thing without a family. If you're single or at least no kids, it's very easy to peace out on your vacation time and go anywhere else you want. That's way harder to do if you have to drag a few kids around and even harder if you have kids in school 'cuz then you are pretty much stuck in BFE even on your off time.
 
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Idk. I'd rather live in a place I like in my 30s and 40's and have less spending money in retirement.

I am just offering another perspective. Every decision you make has positives and negatives and carries its own consequences. I put myself in the above position. The day to day grind wasn’t fun, but I did take 12-14 weeks off every year and vacationed at my second home in the mountains of Colorado. It made it better, but still sucked my soul away on a day to day basis.

Fast forward to today and now I literally live in the mountains in what I feel is my dream location. Lots of Sun, world class lakes and ski resorts, lots of mountain biking, good restaurants, great airport, close drive to amazing locations. I could retire tomorrow if I wanted to. So those sacrifices I made early on are really paying off. Certainly lost some time early on when I first broke out of training. I’ll never get that back.
 
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This is essentially what I’m doing. Not really BFE but a mid-major city. Combine that with my significant other who is also a physician in a higher earning potential field and I don’t think $10 mil is out of the question by 65. Our goal is to have a $1 mil in investments (not including house) by 7 years out.

These jobs do exist, I interviewed at several with a similar pay scale, you just have to be willing to live in less desirable portions of the country. These jobs are NOT an gasworks. You have to either know someone or make cold calls. I did both.

10 mill is totally doable without any extrodinary effort - probably a lot more than 10 mill with 2 physician salaries.

I was at 1 mill 5-6 years out, now about 2.5 mill 10 yrs out. Thats on one salary. It should not be that hard to put away 100-150k/yr (at least half in tax advantaged accounts too) if you are in the 400+k salary range. Of course that usually means 1 house, 1 wife etc.

Given, the market has been on a tear and I dont expect returns of 15-20% to last for long.
 
1. $18K per year in a 401K
2. Employer contribution of $5-$10K per year
3. Back door Roth IRA $5500
4. After Tax Savings in a Taxable account like TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Fidelity, E-trade, etc.: $25,000

Total: $54K per year.

I used 30 years of savings at $54K per year with an average return of 5.5%: $4 million

Compound Interest Calculator | Investor.gov

True but in 30 years, with consistent inflation rates of 2-3%, that 4 million dollars is worth far less than today.

Calculating the NPV of 10 million dollars today at a conservative discount rate of 6%, making >400K POST tax fully SAVED doesn't catch up to that in over 35 years.
 
I realize this can happen to anyone anywhere, but it IS Illinois, after all.

True but most states only have economic caps on "pain and suffering". An "injured" person can easily run into the MILLIONS for post rehabilitative care and lost wages.

Large lawsuits can happen even in conservative states (although rarer).

Unless you have homestead all of your money in Texas (outside of 401K), there really is no extra safety benefit in living there.

Here is a 31M dollar verdict in Texas: Attorney Charles Brown gets $31 million verdict for bedsore case | Medical Malpractice Firm
 
True but most states only have economic caps on "pain and suffering". An "injured" person can easily run into the MILLIONS for post rehabilitative care and lost wages.

Large lawsuits can happen even in conservative states (although rarer).

Unless you have homestead all of your money in Texas (outside of 401K), there really is no extra safety benefit in living there.

Here is a 31M dollar verdict in Texas: Attorney Charles Brown gets $31 million verdict for bedsore case | Medical Malpractice Firm
Has anyone ever met a physician whose personal assets were seized for those verdicts? Everything I read has pointed to the opposite.
Could a malpractice mega-verdict wipe you out?
 
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So I was listening to NPR or something similar. You guys have discounted inflation. They were saying for every million saved, if you figure a 4% withdrawal rate, you are looking at $19,000 for a current 40yo-ish person. That's right: you can expect 19K per million you currently have in liquid assets.
 
Has anyone ever met a physician whose personal assets were seized for those verdicts? Everything I read has pointed to the opposite.
Could a malpractice mega-verdict wipe you out?

The closest I know of is a guy who lost huge in court, to the tune of $15 million over something a CRNA did while he was supervising. Killed a young attorney with kids. Anyway, my understanding is the plaintiffs attorney went after him hard and planned on taking everything. Fortunately this doc had an excellent estate attorney who protected everything to the extent that it would’ve taken years and a ton of effort to get to, and the attorney gave up. The attorney instead decided to after his earnings, so he quit his job and claimed no income. Eventually the hospital settled, and the attorney went away. The whole process was a couple of years and a lot of playing chicken though.
If you don’t have a good asset protection/estate attorney, get one. It is well worth the 2-3k.
 
So I was listening to NPR or something similar. You guys have discounted inflation. They were saying for every million saved, if you figure a 4% withdrawal rate, you are looking at $19,000 for a current 40yo-ish person. That's right: you can expect 19K per million you currently have in liquid assets.

Without hearing what they said, it's hard to know exactly what they meant. But it sounds like they were smoking crack (or looking to sell something to the listeners they were scaring) if they earnestly suggested that a $1M of assets will only produce $19K/year of income.

SWR calculations assume that the principal remains invested, with a significant portion in equities, and that over the course of retirement, the funds that are withdrawn grow along with the portfolio to keep pace with inflation. Inflation and ongoing appreciation of the principal is part of the model.

Were they assuming the $1M was kept in cash in a closet?
 
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Without hearing what they said, it's hard to know exactly what they meant. But it sounds like they were smoking crack (or looking to sell something to the listeners they were scaring) if they earnestly suggested that a $1M of assets will only produce $19K/year of income.

SWR calculations assume that the principal remains invested, with a significant portion in equities, and that over the course of retirement, the funds that are withdrawn grow along with the portfolio to keep pace with inflation. Inflation and ongoing appreciation of the principal is part of the model.

Were they assuming the $1M was kept in cash in a closet?

Yes I get your point that you can’t discount the growth in investment capital. But I think it’s sobering to think that for each million you have saved now and you are in your early 40s, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate, that $40k translates into $19k after you figure in inflation.

And if you are going to assume that your investments grow then you should also point out the fact that you are going to have to pay taxes on that growth (and don’t give me the Roth crap, very very few have millions in a Roth account.)

But yes, traditional returns on equities are between 8-12%/year.
 
It's a balancing act for sure. It's also way more palatable to do the BFE thing without a family. If you're single or at least no kids, it's very easy to peace out on your vacation time and go anywhere else you want. That's way harder to do if you have to drag a few kids around and even harder if you have kids in school 'cuz then you are pretty much stuck in BFE even on your off time.

The longer you stay in BFE. The longer you'll stay in BFE.

Yes I get your point that you can’t discount the growth in investment capital. But I think it’s sobering to think that for each million you have saved now and you are in your early 40s, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate, that $40k translates into $19k after you figure in inflation.

And if you are going to assume that your investments grow then you should also point out the fact that you are going to have to pay taxes on that growth (and don’t give me the Roth crap, very very few have millions in a Roth account.)

But yes, traditional returns on equities are between 8-12%/year.

It's worse than you think. That is the market return, not what most investors actually see. Also, High valuations (which we currently have) bode ill for future expected returns.

Todays paper: ‘I hope I can quit working in a few years’: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

I've posted this one before. Sobering: In Investing, It’s When You Start and When You Finish - Graphic - NYTimes.com
 
Yes I get your point that you can’t discount the growth in investment capital. But I think it’s sobering to think that for each million you have saved now and you are in your early 40s, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate, that $40k translates into $19k after you figure in inflation.

I'm almost certain their math is incorrect, but would have to see the details of what they are trying to figure out.

If you are 40 years old with $1M invested in a 60/40 or 70/30 portfolio, can probably expect something conservatively like 5-6% nominal growth over the next 25 years. With 2% inflation, that's 3-4% real growth. That means at age 65, your $1M has turned into almost $2.7M adjusted for inflation. 4% withdrawn from that $2.7M is >$100K per year (and that's in 2017 dollars, not 2042 when you'd be using them).

So $1M invested right now at age 40 will likely be worth about $100K per year to you adjusted for inflation 25 years from now.

You get similar results if you use a deferred annuity calculator. Schwab tells me if I was 40 years old and invested $1M in an annuity to start paying at age 65, they'd give me $12K per month for life. That's not adjusted for inflation, but you can adjust it yourself and end up with similar results.

$1M at age 40 is worth WAY more than $19K per year at normal retirement age. The only way their math works is if you have $1M right now and put it in a safe and start withdrawing in 25 years.
 
But I think it’s sobering to think that for each million you have saved now and you are in your early 40s, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate, that $40k translates into $19k after you figure in inflation.

That's just it though, it doesn't. Inflation is factored into the models.

If it's Jan 1, 2018 and you retire with $1M, and you decide on a SWR of 4%, what that means, is that you can expect to be able to withdraw the equivalent of $40K in 2018 dollars, until you die.


But yes, traditional returns on equities are between 8-12%/year.

That's pretty optimistic.
 
Yes I get your point that you can’t discount the growth in investment capital. But I think it’s sobering to think that for each million you have saved now and you are in your early 40s, assuming a 4% withdrawal rate, that $40k translates into $19k after you figure in inflation.

And if you are going to assume that your investments grow then you should also point out the fact that you are going to have to pay taxes on that growth (and don’t give me the Roth crap, very very few have millions in a Roth account.)

But yes, traditional returns on equities are between 8-12%/year.

not only will you not be spending less than 40k adjusted for inflation per million saved today, you will likely be spending much much, more.

(And Blade's kids are going to inherit $12 million!)
 
Any of you guys planning on FIRE (Financially independent retire early)? I feel like most of these numbers will have little meaning to someone like me, planning to be completely FI latest by 50 (working part time as desired).
 
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My wife (also a physician) and I are planning on working until the last child is out of the house (I'll be 52). Should have 7-10 million in various investments (depending on market return and our discipline to continue to put 200-250k+/yr away) and a paid off residence.

That's the plan anyhow. I could see us going part-time/no call a little earlier and perhaps working with that schedule a little later.
 
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Consider working at a BFE location that pays >90% MGMA for 5-8 years once you get out.
Kind of boring, but cost of living is negligible and it's an easy way to get rid of debt and build a solid retirement portfolio that is aggressive during your early years of practice. Once you've had enough of BFE, move to your dream location with a big leg up on retirement.
It's definitely a sacrifice but if you can muster it, it can be a good way to get to retirement early.

I’m doing it and shocked more don’t. My coresidents looked at time like I was crazy. Money is amazing and lifestyle is great. Big city a couple hours away if I wanna wild out. Buy a big acreage for pennies live like a king. And one massive bonus, country people are the finest in the world
 
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Seems to me that the bigger issue is that many docs, anesthesiologists included, don't know how to give it up. Plenty of us and successful people in general have enough to quit much earlier. I see so many older docs with more money in the bank than they could ever even spend, who just keep going and going. Don't want to be put out to pasture I guess.
 
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That's just it though, it doesn't. Inflation is factored into the models.

If it's Jan 1, 2018 and you retire with $1M, and you decide on a SWR of 4%, what that means, is that you can expect to be able to withdraw the equivalent of $40K in 2018 dollars, until you die.




That's pretty optimistic.


I don't think our figure above is correct. I'm still in residency but me and husband have saved close to 2million - we are both in our 30's. If we retired now with that money, it would last about 20 years or so, there is no way we could take out 40k for life until we died, say around 80 or so, so for over 50 years. How are you calculating that?
 
Seems to me that the bigger issue is that many docs, anesthesiologists included, don't know how to give it up. Plenty of us and successful people in general have enough to quit much earlier. I see so many older docs with more money in the bank than they could ever even spend, who just keep going and going. Don't want to be put out to pasture I guess.
A lot of the 60 y/o anesthesiologists (a lot, not all) I have met are on wife #2-3, lots of child support, have had multiple failed side businesses, etc.
 
I’m very skeptical of Roth’s long term.

Remember the govt can impose its will any way it wants. While u won’t be expose to double taxation again on the principal money.

Govt can always try to pull a fast on like Obama tried to do with taxing gains on 529.

Remember Medicare??? Single payer. Right? Not so fast. They make seniors making over $85k Pay more in premiums for part b.

Medicare Part B Premiums Will Top $10,000 A Year For High Income Senior Couples In 2017

Just imagine a heavily democratic/left leaning congress/president in the future. They can impose taxing Roth IRA “gains” or include whatever surtax they want on withdrawals over X amount.

It’s the government. They got the power to tax and believe me. Your Roth plans are not full proof.
 
I don't think our figure above is correct. I'm still in residency but me and husband have saved close to 2million - we are both in our 30's. If we retired now with that money, it would last about 20 years or so, there is no way we could take out 40k for life until we died, say around 80 or so, so for over 50 years. How are you calculating that?

You’ve saved two million while in residency? What’s your secret? Assuming your husband is an attending he must be killing it in Ortho or something
 
I’m not one to brag, but during residency I managed to collect $20,000 in interest debt. Half my friends had no debt and the other half collected double in interest.
 
If we retired now with that money, it would last about 20 years or so, there is no way we could take out 40k for life until we died, say around 80 or so, so for over 50 years. How are you calculating that?

How could you not afford 40K per life from that? That's 2% of the principal per year. I mean if you stuffed it in a mattress you could literally remove 40K per year for 50 years before you run out. The 30 year US treasury rate is currently just a shade under 3% which means you could make nearly 60K per year in interest on it. If you invest it conservatively, you could assume a probably catastrophic worst case scenario return of 4-5% per year which would return you 80-100K per year over 50 years.

As an example of compounding math, how is that $2M invested right now and how has the balance changed in the last 12+ months? Almost any reasonable allocation should be up 15+% YTD. That means you should have probably $300K more right now than you did 12 months ago.
 
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You’ve saved two million while in residency? What’s your secret? Assuming your husband is an attending he must be killing it in Ortho or something
No, not saved during residency - saved through a number of years and he’s not a physician.
 
I read the thread and all I can think is "rich people problems".
 
All you can do is save as much as possible. 10 mil seems high to me but I got a later start in medicine. Using conservative nominal returns (4-6%) I should have about 6.5-7 mil by 65ish. I plan on delaying taking out 3% until 70 if health allows...... If so, that will be in the 8 mil range.

All one can do is save aggressively, invest wisely, and keep one's lifestyle in check. Live happy and be grateful for what you have. That's my goal anyway. I think if you do these things you will be very happy with the results.

I'm a firm believer in living comfortably, not lavishly. You can do a lot of cool stuff living a comfortable lifestyle. Then again, it's all relative, isn't it? Also, life has this way of throwing us all curve balls...... Perhaps all the more reason to save well...
 
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Even millionaires aren't totally happy
Harvard's new research reveals that the price of happiness is pretty steep: It seems to be around $8 million to $10 million. Only at these levels "are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth," says the study, revealing that in one group, millionaires who hit the $8 million mark reported higher life satisfaction than those with $7.9 million or less, and in another, those with a net worth of over $10 million were significantly happier than those with lower levels of wealth. But even then, it is only associated with "modestly greater well-being."

"Spending money on time saving purchases — like housecleaning, lawn-mowing and task outsourcing — promotes happiness by protecting people from the time-famine of modern life," Ashley Whillans, a professor at Harvard Business School and author of a study on money and happiness, tells CNBC Make It.

"Both the most and least wealthy individuals we studied derived benefits from spending money to buy time," meaning it has "broad benefits for well-being," she says.

After all, "What matters for your well-being is what you're doing with the minutes and days of your life," University of British Columbia psychology professor Elizabeth Dunn tells CNBC Make It. "If you have a lot of money and a lot of nice stuff, but you're spending your time doing things that you dislike, then your minute-to-minute happiness and overall happiness is likely to be pretty low."


This is how much money it takes for millionaires to be happy
 
Ethereum and Ripple. Mark Cuban made a Billion dollars selling rubbish to Yahoo. The company he sold was out of business within 2 years of the sale and had NO intrinsic value whatsoever.


Mark Cuban and Broadcast.com: The Multibillion Dollar Coup - GuruFocus.com

So, anyone making millions off Ethereum and Ripple is simply following Cuban's footsteps. The key is to SELL before these "investments" reveal their true intrinsic worth.


http://fortune.com/2013/05/21/5-worst-internet-acquisitions-of-all-time/
 
So if someone had 2.6 mill in their pretax account and it was all invested in stocks (SPY) what would be the projected amount in 18 years when they turn 70? Asking for a friend.....


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Got an attending mentor that has a wife in medicine... primary care (she works 2 days a week and brings in their living expenses). He works cardiac/ccm 50/52 weeks a year. He loves money. Says it outload. Has a cushion of $8million, at this very moment. He has a modestly nice house. A nice car. One kid in private school. That's it. He feels that he works another 4-5 years, he can retire at age 52-54 with well >$10 million nest egg for which he gets 4%

I mean, he looks exhausted. But damn, he's the poster boy for the more you do, the better you get even at an attending level. He's the guy everyone calls for help when they struggle. Never seen a line or block he couldn't place.

Now, is this for everyone? Maybe not. I asked him why he works this way... his thoughts? "Well, I came from a war torn country as an immigrant with nothing and "made it", I don't wanna be in that situation ever again."

Not a bad reason to haul ass and do that lap chole at 3am.
 
Got an attending mentor that has a wife in medicine... primary care (she works 2 days a week and brings in their living expenses). He works cardiac/ccm 50/52 weeks a year. He loves money. Says it outload. Has a cushion of $8million, at this very moment. He has a modestly nice house. A nice car. One kid in private school. That's it. He feels that he works another 4-5 years, he can retire at age 52-54 with well >$10 million nest egg for which he gets 4%

I mean, he looks exhausted. But damn, he's the poster boy for the more you do, the better you get even at an attending level. He's the guy everyone calls for help when they struggle. Never seen a line or block he couldn't place.

Now, is this for everyone? Maybe not. I asked him why he works this way... his thoughts? "Well, I came from a war torn country as an immigrant with nothing and "made it", I don't wanna be in that situation ever again."

Not a bad reason to haul ass and do that lap chole at 3am.

Respect
 
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And perspective.


That said, there's such a thing as overcorrecting. You'll read about people who faced starvation in war torn countries. For some of them, no matter where they end up, no matter how secure they are, they can't stop stocking food, saving leftovers, hiding caches of calories, eating cheap, buying sacks of rice on sale. Some of these behaviors are scars from trauma. The workaholic misers who grew up poor are cut from the same cloth.

I hope that guy actually retires (or cuts back substantially) at age 52-54.
 
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Got an attending mentor that has a wife in medicine... primary care (she works 2 days a week and brings in their living expenses). He works cardiac/ccm 50/52 weeks a year. He loves money. Says it outload. Has a cushion of $8million, at this very moment. He has a modestly nice house. A nice car. One kid in private school. That's it. He feels that he works another 4-5 years, he can retire at age 52-54 with well >$10 million nest egg for which he gets 4%

I mean, he looks exhausted. But damn, he's the poster boy for the more you do, the better you get even at an attending level. He's the guy everyone calls for help when they struggle. Never seen a line or block he couldn't place.

Now, is this for everyone? Maybe not. I asked him why he works this way... his thoughts? "Well, I came from a war torn country as an immigrant with nothing and "made it", I don't wanna be in that situation ever again."

Not a bad reason to haul ass and do that lap chole at 3am.
Respect his ethic but this dude's not gonna just up and quit at 52 lol. You said it yourself - "He loves money". You think a guy like this is gonna stop at 52 and start watching daytime television? There's only so much time you can spend traveling and what not. Also, one can argue that it's smarter to look at it more as a marathon than a sprint. Go slower and take time to enjoy life while you're in your prime. Tomorrow and your future circumstances are not guaranteed.
 
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The actual moral of the story: Don’t go into anesthesia today thinking you’ll be capable of building the same nest egg.
 
I considered our family to be financially independent from medicine / earned income as we approached $2 Million in retirement assets, but will be more comfortable transitioning out of medicine with closer to $3 Million. I'm working part time now, a schedule that started last fall, and I'm loving it.

Today, I published a post that lists the many considerations that should go into determining your number:
How Much Money Does a Doctor Need to Retire?
 
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I considered our family to be financially independent from medicine / earned income as we approached $2 Million in retirement assets, but will be more comfortable transitioning out of medicine with closer to $3 Million. I'm working part time now, a schedule that started last fall, and I'm loving it.

Today, I published a post that lists the many considerations that should go into determining your number:
How Much Money Does a Doctor Need to Retire?

It's not about how much is needed to retire. It's all about the FU money.
 
My plan is 4m and 2m in property that I can dump if needed. I’ll get there without any problems. Probably more as I’m not counting on any inheritance and my wife is saving as well.
I do hope they don’t phase out Social Security payments for high income earners as I refer to that as my Ferrari payment.



--
Il Destriero
 
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