14320 new PharmDs in 2020

[CNJ_Anon]

AACP released the Sept 2020 data, confirming the slow and continual contraction in the number of PharmD graduates. The data is always a year behind.

Student Applications, Enrollments and Degrees Conferred Reports | AACP

www.aacp.org

The number of PharmD grads peaked in 2018 at 14905. The year with the highest total enrollment was 2014 at 63927; it dropped to 57375 in 2020. The attrition rate (12.5%) stayed near its 2019 peak (12.6%).

Actual number of degrees awarded:
2015 13994
2016 14556
2017 14502
2018 14905
2019 14800
2020 14320

Size of class of 20XX (as of Sept 2020):
2021 14532
2022 14336
2023 13915

The number of applications to PharmD programs by year:
2017 72941
2018 60042
2019 50842
2020 40392
Note: Each applicant submits about 2.5 applications. (So about 16000 people applied to pharmacy school last year.)

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[mentos]

A little progress but still a long long way to go before reaching zero, the number of new pharmDs actually needed in the workforce.

 

[watchfulwaiting1957]

AACP released the Sept 2020 data, confirming the slow and continual contraction in the number of PharmD graduates. The data is always a year behind.

Student Applications, Enrollments and Degrees Conferred Reports | AACP

www.aacp.org

The number of PharmD grads peaked in 2018 at 14905. The year with the highest total enrollment was 2014 at 63927; it dropped to 57375 in 2020. The attrition rate (12.5%) stayed near its 2019 peak (12.6%).

Actual number of degrees awarded:
2015 13994
2016 14556
2017 14502
2018 14905
2019 14800
2020 14320

Size of class of 20XX (as of Sept 2020):
2021 14532
2022 14336
2023 13915

The number of applications to PharmD programs by year:
2017 72941
2018 60042
2019 50842
2020 40392
Note: Each applicant submits about 2.5 applications. (So about 16000 people applied to pharmacy school last year.)

so we can take the degrees awarded and mulitply them against the NAPLEX pass rate to get a good idea about how much worse / better the saturation is getting? My understanding is that many grads only get MPJEs in a few states so I feel like some states will be feeling the saturation more than others. (NY, NJ have high saturation, WV has lower saturation)

 

[VA77]

Can't wait to see the new official acceptance rate. Should be above 95%.

BTW, WV is saturated.

 

[watchfulwaiting1957]

Can't wait to see the new official acceptance rate. Should be above 95%.

BTW, WV is saturated.

According to my research WV is one of the least saturated states along with Alabama and Louisiana and Mississippi . I used Pharmacists , specifically the Location Quotient by state for May 2020 along with other resources.
And it makes since. WV lost the most people of any state according to the 2020 census data. People simply do not want to live there, pharmacists included. West Virginia had the largest population drop in the US from 2010 to 2020, the census shows

OFC all states may be considered saturated but i'm talking about Relative Saturation, that is how saturated WV is compared relatively to NY and NJ (the two worst states to be in as a pharmacist)

 

[VA77]

It is true that WV has higher location quotient. I live 13 miles from the state line and I can tell you that there are no jobs. I'm in the southern part so maybe there are a plethora in the panhandle or up in Morgantown but maybe WVUPharm can chime in since he went to school there and can compare to the NE market.

 

[PharmtoCS]

Still far too many grads when job growth is negative.

 

[Rybko90]

Can't wait to see the new official acceptance rate. Should be above 95%.

BTW, WV is saturated.

Applications have dropped so much -- anyone with half a brain has steered clear.
... I can only imagine, in grim anticipation, the intellectual capacity of the average pharmacy school graduate in four years...

 

[watchfulwaiting1957]

Applications have dropped so much -- anyone with half a brain has steered clear.
... I can only imagine, in grim anticipation, the intellectual capacity of the average pharmacy school graduate in four years...

the higher the acceptance rate, the lower the NAPLEX pass rate will be I speculate.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Applications have dropped so much -- anyone with half a brain has steered clear.
... I can only imagine, in grim anticipation, the intellectual capacity of the average pharmacy school graduate in four years...

Which is also why I don't fear competition from these people.

 

[lord999]

Applications have dropped so much -- anyone with half a brain has steered clear.
... I can only imagine, in grim anticipation, the intellectual capacity of the average pharmacy school graduate in four years...

I have fairly politically incorrect observations, but what I can say is that I would want less than 10% to dispense me a generic ZPak. I have more professional confidence in the techs these days.

We’ve finally made the perfect chain pharmacist, desperate for work, too inept to be able to qualify for higher labor, and disposably forgettable. This must be the best era ever to be a Supervisor except that the Big Three are making them fight for their territory.

 

[Sine Cura]

I can't even count on techs to fill out CDC vaccination cards 99% correctly. I myself have caught 15 errors out of 700+ shots including misspelled last name, inverted first and last name, misspelled first name, completely wrong DOB, completely wrong person

At least if you've gone to a half-decent school (big if I suppose) that acts as a minimum-standards filter.

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

I can't even count on techs to fill out CDC vaccination cards 99% correctly. I myself have caught 15 errors out of 700+ shots including misspelled last name, inverted first and last name, misspelled first name, completely wrong DOB, completely wrong person

The right vaccine every time at least? Had a near miss at my pharmacy last night where the patient signed up for Pfizer but tech wrote Moderna on the card. Rph caught it when she had the vaccine in hand.

 

[Sine Cura]

We had some rando foreign nationals seem to act surprised that they were getting the Janssen vaccine when the pharmacist comes out to stick them. So there are English barriers there already and techs not necessarily adept at explaining the diff between J+J versus the mRNA vaccines......

Even had someone write down the customer's phone number where it says what is the IIS number. JFL. Wouldn't you ask yourself WTF is IIS if you don't know that acronym? Nope, always have to have a pharmacist spoon-feed you

 

[APN-59 rph]

I can't even count on techs to fill out CDC vaccination cards 99% correctly. I myself have caught 15 errors out of 700+ shots including misspelled last name, inverted first and last name, misspelled first name, completely wrong DOB, completely wrong person

At least if you've gone to a half-decent school (big if I suppose) that acts as a minimum-standards filter.

And the practical result of this is..what? I have carried an international record of vaccine booklet with me for many moons and no one has ever asked to see it...... (The worst ones are gamma globulin...you GI's will remember)

 

[Sine Cura]

And the practical result of this is..what? I have carried an international record of vaccine booklet with me for many moons and no one has ever asked to see it...... (The worst ones are gamma globulin...you GI's will remember)

It's not about the end result of does some ****ty easily forged card matter. It's the fact that are you expecting techs to process and transcribe simple information correctly and errors like the above fall through the cracks without pharmacist intervention or the customer complaining.

And people bomb on marginal cannon fodder pharmacists even though at least they managed to complete a bachelor's (where required), eke out pharmacy school and pass some licensing exams, and have some interest in keeping their license clean.

What did some techs manage to achieve? Single motherhood? At what price point do you expect techs to care? $20/hr? $30? $40?

Meanwhile this information entered by sloppy techs is being submitted to a state registry (wherever it exists) and the customer would expect to be able to obtain that information via request. Hard to do when DOB and name are entered incorrectly.

 

[AONLINE]

I have fairly politically incorrect observations, but what I can say is that I would want less than 10% to dispense me a generic ZPak.

I'm really curious as to why you don't trust the majority of licensed pharmacists to dispense you a common drug like ZPak? Isn't there a prescription from a provider with dosage and everything and all the pharmacist needs to do is to check that and fill?

 

[quickpic007]

Can't wait to see the new official acceptance rate. Should be above 95%.

BTW, WV is saturated.

doubt anyone is really turned away, if applicant knows they are marginal and apply to two schools, guaranteed taken by one.

 

[mentos]

doubt anyone is really turned away, if applicant knows they are marginal and apply to two schools, guaranteed taken by one.

Who would turn down $200,000 in easy money?

 

[BenJammin]

We're going to see a lot of programs shut down over the next 5-10 years. Big names too.

 

[mentos]

We're going to see a lot of programs shut down over the next 5-10 years. Big names too.

Not as long as the government keeps giving out mortgages like candy. And Liz Warren keeps talking about loan forgiveness.

 

[watchfulwaiting1957]

Not as long as the government keeps giving out mortgages like candy. And Liz Warren keeps talking about loan forgiveness.

This. Law is around ten years ahead of pharmacy in saturation. ( An Expensive Law Degree, and No Place to Use It (Published 2016) ) yet still only a few law schools have actually went out of business or had to merge with more successful universities. The root cause of the issues is the easy fed money. As long as any American student can qualify for loans of 200,000 USD + there will be incentive for educational enterprises to get that money. As competition increases for the limited and shrinking student populations, universities will engage in a race to the bottom, lower standards, lowering standards, lowering standards.

One way to limit this would be for the NAPB to require pharmacy schools to have incoming students pass the PCAT with a 90% or higher composite score. Another way would be to update the BLS pharmacist information with the average salary of ALL pharmDs. That would bring the average salary down from 100k+ to around 55k which would help reduce incoming students. Neither of these will happen because the universities lobby the controlling bodies.

My prediction is that pharmacy will begin to mirror the law industry more. maybe 60% of the top students get jobs while the other 40% fight like animals in a pit for scraps.

 

[mentos]

This. Law is around ten years ahead of pharmacy in saturation. ( An Expensive Law Degree, and No Place to Use It (Published 2016) ) yet still only a few law schools have actually went out of business or had to merge with more successful universities. The root cause of the issues is the easy fed money. As long as any American student can qualify for loans of 200,000 USD + there will be incentive for educational enterprises to get that money. As competition increases for the limited and shirking student populations, universities will engage in a race to the bottom, lower standards, lowering standards, lowering standards.

One way to limit this would be for the NAPB to require pharmacy schools to have incoming students pass the PCAT with a 90% or higher composite score. Another way would be to update the BLS pharmacist information with the average salary of ALL pharmDs. That would bring the average salary down from 100k+ to around 55k which would help reduce incoming students. Neither of these will happen because the universities lobby the controlling bodies.

My prediction is that pharmacy will begin to mirror the law industry more. maybe 60% of the top students get jobs while the other 40% fight like animals in a pit for scraps.

Exactly, law schools haven't gone anywhere.

BLS should only publish average pharmacist salary from 2019 and beyond. The average salaries from before that are much higher and untouchable for new grads.

 

[Gombrich12]

This. Law is around ten years ahead of pharmacy in saturation. ( An Expensive Law Degree, and No Place to Use It (Published 2016) ) yet still only a few law schools have actually went out of business or had to merge with more successful universities. The root cause of the issues is the easy fed money. As long as any American student can qualify for loans of 200,000 USD + there will be incentive for educational enterprises to get that money. As competition increases for the limited and shirking student populations, universities will engage in a race to the bottom, lower standards, lowering standards, lowering standards.

One way to limit this would be for the NAPB to require pharmacy schools to have incoming students pass the PCAT with a 90% or higher composite score. Another way would be to update the BLS pharmacist information with the average salary of ALL pharmDs. That would bring the average salary down from 100k+ to around 55k which would help reduce incoming students. Neither of these will happen because the universities lobby the controlling bodies.

My prediction is that pharmacy will begin to mirror the law industry more. maybe 60% of the top students get jobs while the other 40% fight like animals in a pit for scraps.

The difference is that law is a much more glamorous profession with the potential to make you wealthy and famous. The average outcome for graduating law students may be worse than pharmacy students but teenagers don't think they are average. Think about how many rich and powerful people went to law school and do the same for pharmacy school. A dreaming law student can imagine themselves being president of the united states. The dreaming pharmacy student imagines themselves being a clinical pharmacist working a 9-5 with no weekends.

Also, I keep repeating this but wages are rising for blue collar and lower tier jobs. This article about finding restaurant workers says due to the worker shortage caused by the pandemic an entry level sous chef now makes between 60-70k. How are you going to find applicants for a profession that takes 6-8 years to enter along with a huge pile of debt to make $80k under horrible work conditions? Eventually rising wages in other fields will even start to drain the existing pool of pharmacists as they exit the profession for lower paying but easier fields. With work from home becoming widely accepted you'll see a lot of people question why they are standing on their feet 8-14 hours a day when they could be sitting at home making $70-80k in a much less stressful job.

 

[BenJammin]

This. Law is around ten years ahead of pharmacy in saturation. ( An Expensive Law Degree, and No Place to Use It (Published 2016) ) yet still only a few law schools have actually went out of business or had to merge with more successful universities. The root cause of the issues is the easy fed money. As long as any American student can qualify for loans of 200,000 USD + there will be incentive for educational enterprises to get that money. As competition increases for the limited and shirking student populations, universities will engage in a race to the bottom, lower standards, lowering standards, lowering standards.

One way to limit this would be for the NAPB to require pharmacy schools to have incoming students pass the PCAT with a 90% or higher composite score. Another way would be to update the BLS pharmacist information with the average salary of ALL pharmDs. That would bring the average salary down from 100k+ to around 55k which would help reduce incoming students. Neither of these will happen because the universities lobby the controlling bodies.

My prediction is that pharmacy will begin to mirror the law industry more. maybe 60% of the top students get jobs while the other 40% fight like animals in a pit for scraps.

Honestly I think this is apples and oranges. There is no growth potential for a pharmacist while lawyers have limitless options after graduation.

 

[VA77]

This. Law is around ten years ahead of pharmacy in saturation. ( An Expensive Law Degree, and No Place to Use It (Published 2016) ) yet still only a few law schools have actually went out of business or had to merge with more successful universities. The root cause of the issues is the easy fed money. As long as any American student can qualify for loans of 200,000 USD + there will be incentive for educational enterprises to get that money. As competition increases for the limited and shirking student populations, universities will engage in a race to the bottom, lower standards, lowering standards, lowering standards.

One way to limit this would be for the NAPB to require pharmacy schools to have incoming students pass the PCAT with a 90% or higher composite score. Another way would be to update the BLS pharmacist information with the average salary of ALL pharmDs. That would bring the average salary down from 100k+ to around 55k which would help reduce incoming students. Neither of these will happen because the universities lobby the controlling bodies.

My prediction is that pharmacy will begin to mirror the law industry more. maybe 60% of the top students get jobs while the other 40% fight like animals in a pit for scraps.

Good article. Very accurate on what admissions is facing with lowering the bar vs lowering class size. Skip down to the part about them doing panic meetings because this is scary accurate.

 

[mentos]

I considered going to law school back in 2006-2007 but found out there were no jobs back then. Good thing I Googled it.

 

[steveysmith54]

I considered going to law school back in 2006-2007 but found out there were no jobs back then. Good thing I Googled it.

I think it’s easier for lawyers to freelance and get at least some kind gigs... I’ve known a few who ended up opening up a little office that they share with another lawyer and then advertise on some niche practice online... pharmacists don’t have those kind of opportunities...

 

[CarpetTable45]

Which is also why I don't fear competition from these people.

Assuming the purchasers of pharmacy labor are valuing the ability to offload liability onto someone else sufficiently more than the proficiency of doing pharmacy work, then as long as they are licensed, they would be competition.

 

[mentos]

Assuming the purchasers of pharmacy labor are valuing the ability to offload liability onto someone else sufficiently more than the proficiency of doing pharmacy work, then as long as they are licensed, they would be competition.

Chains just want a warm body, they don't care how good their clinical skills are. Hire a new grad for $43/hr or keep paying this old timer $65+/hr? Tough choice.

 

[APN-59 rph]

Chains just want a warm body, they don't care how good their clinical skills are. Hire a new grad for $43/hr or keep paying this old timer $65+/hr? Tough choice.

This is not a pimp question..I'm genuinely interested..does anyone who works a chain ever use "clinical skills"? Can you take say..10 minutes to puzzle out a situation...hold up a dispensing to wait for a call back?

 

[VA77]

I think the chain want a 'name' they can put the risk back on if something goes wrong. The question is, 'How low of a price is someone willing to take to assume that risk?'. I think younger pharmacist have very little clue on how much liability they have and believe corporate or even their personal insurance will take care of them.

Thus makes me wonder, 'Would HPSO or another liability company begin to look at BoP records and determine which chains might impose a higher risk and therefore increase a pharmacists premium for working there?' Most insurance companies (property and vehicle) are very granular at looking at everything before they give you a policy.

Just makes me think.

 

[mentos]

lawyers have limitless options after graduation.

Tell that to people at TLS.

This is where all the unemployed lawyers go to cry

The “Vale of Tears” is an epic thread on the Top-Law-Schools forum that chronicles the lawyer unemployment crisis.

theoutline.com

There is a dedicated thread for unemployed lawyers. It's 470 pages long.

The Vale of Tears (3L Job Hunting) (No advice for 0/1/2Ls) Forum - Page 470 - Top Law Schools

www.top-law-schools.com

There was a similar thread started for unemployed pharmacists here called "the safe place", but of course the mods shut it down. No negativity for pharmacy allowed.

 

[BidingMyTime]

The right vaccine every time at least? Had a near miss at my pharmacy last night where the patient signed up for Pfizer but tech wrote Moderna on the card. Rph caught it when she had the vaccine in hand.

Here is a vaccine pharmacist horror story. This story is from several years ago, and I heard of it from a friend, who had heard it from a friend....so I can't vouch for its veracity. So the pharmacist worked at a chain, and for months, they had ended up with Zostavax, but no diluent for it., even though they were buying equal amounts of both. They couldn't figure it out. Then one day, during overlap, they caught the floater pharmacist drawing up the diluent and was just going to go inject it. They stopped the floater pharmacist who acted surprised, claimed he didn't know the diluent wasn't the actual vaccine. This was a regular floater pharmacist, so it answered the question of why they were ending up with more Zostavax than diluent.

Was the pharmacist really that completely incompetent? (I like to think no.....but yes, I can imagine a rare pharmacist being that incompent.)

Was the pharmacist an anti-vaxxer doing this on purpose? (I also like to think no.....but then there is the Christmas Eve pharmacist who deliberately set out COVID vaccines.)

Maybe this story is just an urban legend? (I like to think yes.....but who would make up such an asinine story?)

 

[WorthlessOxygen]

Maybe this story is just an urban legend?

Aw man I don't know with this one. I'm leaning towards urban legend but it is a plausible story.

I graduated during the Great Shingrix Shortage so I've only given a couple Zostavax, but I remember the diluent being pretty clearly marked as diluent only. Plus it wasn't frozen so it was generally stored near the freezer but not actually obviously marked as Shingrix, right? I can't see too many people mistaking it for active vaccine. Then again it only takes one and like you said, could be intentional.

 

[Sine Cura]

This is not a pimp question..I'm genuinely interested..does anyone who works a chain ever use "clinical skills"? Can you take say..10 minutes to puzzle out a situation...hold up a dispensing to wait for a call back?

I tell these ****ty hospitalist offices what's covered all the time so at least the person being discharged can go home with a covered anticoagulant or insulin

Other people's idea of intervention is "please clarify the strength and dosing of Biktarvy" JFL. Sometimes I have to get on prescribers to complete their basic triple therapy.

Worst case scenario I have to pull up a journal article or two for some psych med PA ("treatment authorization request" that is supposed to be submitted for Medi-Cal claims) because the psych clinic responds to **** all.

 

[StockPharmD2020]

At least it's coming down. Getting closer to my retirement, just need to last another 5-8 years before 20 hours a week

 

[GrandTheftAutumn]

Here is a vaccine pharmacist horror story. This story is from several years ago, and I heard of it from a friend, who had heard it from a friend....so I can't vouch for its veracity. So the pharmacist worked at a chain, and for months, they had ended up with Zostavax, but no diluent for it., even though they were buying equal amounts of both. They couldn't figure it out. Then one day, during overlap, they caught the floater pharmacist drawing up the diluent and was just going to go inject it. They stopped the floater pharmacist who acted surprised, claimed he didn't know the diluent wasn't the actual vaccine. This was a regular floater pharmacist, so it answered the question of why they were ending up with more Zostavax than diluent.

Was the pharmacist really that completely incompetent? (I like to think no.....but yes, I can imagine a rare pharmacist being that incompent.)

Was the pharmacist an anti-vaxxer doing this on purpose? (I also like to think no.....but then there is the Christmas Eve pharmacist who deliberately set out COVID vaccines.)

Maybe this story is just an urban legend? (I like to think yes.....but who would make up such an asinine story?)

I did have a pharmacist who asked me if Nystop needs to be reconstituted.