2005 Match Predictions

[mpp]

Now that the interview season is about done, any predictions for the 2005 match?

%U.S. Seniors Matched, Average Step 1

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[Idiopathic]

84% matched, 235 average step 1. Fewer apps due to draw of interventional rads.

 

[ecpiii]

84% matched, 235 average step 1. Fewer apps due to draw of interventional rads.

Sorry man, most likely incorrect per the sfmatch rumor mill and the PD's/secretaries.
-Average step 1 probably 238-240.
-Number of true apps about 310-320. (Close to last year)
-# apps per applicant are up, making it seem busier than it really is to the program
-Less FMG's, more US seniors, so this probably means match rate will go down to 75% for US seniors
-Interventional rads probably has NO effect on neurosurgery applications.

 

[Idiopathic]

Oh well, its just a guess. Some of us dont have access to the sfmatch 'rumor mill'

 

[GobindSingh]

My prediction:

238-240
69-71% US seniors match rate

 

[mpp]

I know at least one person that made the switch from Neurosurgery to Interventional Radiology late in their 3rd year of medical school....so maybe that's not all wrong.

 

[ecpiii]

Oh well, its just a guess. Some of us dont have access to the sfmatch 'rumor mill'

Yeah, that was a stupid comment. It's not like I am really "in" on the mill either. I was going off of a call I made to the sfmatch a month ago. Its funny, when you go through this next year, you'll find the same guy answers the help line phone at sf match every time you call, and he is pretty cool if you are nice to him. I was asking him about the last supplemental filing for my application, and just happened to ask about how busy they were, and he said, "The total apps look like they are the same as last year, but you guys are applying to every program in the book."

You know what is funny about the number of applicants is that some med schools crank out students interested in neurosurgery, e.g. Hopkins has 10 applicants this year. That's almost 8% of the graduating class for a specialty that is about 0.4% of doctors. Indiana has 6. They must have a serious mentor/recruitment system in place.

 

[mpp]

You know what is funny about the number of applicants is that some med schools crank out students interested in neurosurgery, e.g. Hopkins has 10 applicants this year. That's almost 8% of the graduating class for a specialty that is about 0.4% of doctors. Indiana has 6. They must have a serious mentor/recruitment system in place.

And some schools just never have applicants. Mayo Medical School has had only two applicants to Neurosurgery in the last 8 years. Although we have one this year, I'll be the one next year, and there is a current 2nd year with plans as well.

 

[mpp]

All the inbreeding is kind of scary too (although you can't blame programs for taking their own since they'll know best that their getting a great candidate).

In the last four matches, more than 3/4 of the matches to both Columbia and Hopkins have been from their respetive medical schools. And most of the ones that weren't from their respective schools were from Columbia or Hopkins.

 

[bigfrank]

I think the 80-hour work week is really helping out applications to Neurosurg.

 

[doc05]

I think the 80-hour work week is really helping out applications to Neurosurg.

too bad the 80-hour week is a myth.

 

[Idiopathic]

Hell Im only an MS-III and I worked 100 hours last week, without taking any call.

 

[mpp]

Well, the ENT match was last week and the results are as follows:

Registrations 465
CAS Partcipants 429
Rank Lists - 350
Ranked - 357

Matched 251
-US Seniors 220
-US Grads 27
-IMGs 4

Avg USMLE
Matched 236
Unmatched 220
Pct Matched AOA 37%
Offered 254
Filled 251
LEFT UNFILLED 3
Avg Applications: 42
Avg Interviews: 9
Avg offers 4.3

Pct Matching:
-US Seniors 77%
-US Grads 63%
-IMGs 18%

Which is very similar to the 2004 statistics:

2004 ENT Match
Rank Lists: 359
Matched: 256
US Seniors: 241 (76%)
US Grads: 6 (43%)
IMGs: 9 (33%)
No unfilled spots
Avg USMLE matched : 237
Avg USMLE unmatched : 222
AOA matched: 35%

Fewer rank lists this year is actually surprising since there were so many that didn't match last year you would think many of those would have been applying again this year, but perhaps not...even the U.S Grads match percentage is higher in both number and percentage.

Does this change anybody's predictions for January 27 (Neurosurgery match day)?

The fields (ENT and neurosurgery) tend to attract a somehwat similar crowd and it seems some people go back and forth between the two.

 

[Idiopathic]

I stand by mine

 

[syrinx]

Avg USMLE
Matched 236
Unmatched 220
Pct Matched AOA 37%
Offered 254
Filled 251
LEFT UNFILLED 3
Avg Applications: 42
Avg Interviews: 9
Avg offers 4.3

Can you explain how the "Average Offers" is calculated?

 

[mpp]

Not sure. It might mean how many rank lists each candidate was on. Seems kind of low to me, but I don't know.

 

[mpp]

2005 Match Statistics

registered 346
cas participants 296
rank lists + W/D 257
ranked 222
matched 154
US seniors 134
US grads 4
IMG 15
Unmatched 84
Positions offered 156
filled 154
left 2
avg step 1 matched 235
unmatched 214
% matched AOA 21%
% matched PhD 13%
avg apps 38
avg interviews 10.3
avg offers 3.8
% matched 60%
% US Seniors matched 85%
% US Grads matched 22%
% IMGs matched 25%

Idiopathic was right on the money. Fewer rank lists submitted (282 last year vs 252 this year), higher U.S. seniors match percentage (79% last year, 85% this year), same Step 1 average (235).

 

[mpp]

2006 match is in 2 days. Any predictions??

 

[Blake]

Good luck with the match, mpp !


Nsmatch got hacked ? Or is it just my web-browser acting weird ?

 

[mpp]

It looks like it got hacked. And just two days before match....

 

[USCTex]

Are you guys going to learn tomorrow from a phone call from your matched program or are they mailing out letters tomorrow or do you find out online? How's this work?

On an entirely seperate note - did ENT use to be early and now no longer is?

 

[mpp]

The medical school dean's offices and the program director's offices get a fax tonight with their results. The applicants get contacted by their dean or their new program by phone, e-mail, page, etc.

Yes, ENT used to be early (San Francisco Match) but is now regular match. I would not doubt if the rest (neurology, neurosurgery, ophthalmology) go this way in the next several years.

 

[triquetras]

Does anyone have the 2006 match stats?

 

[mpp]

They are not out until tomorrow.