I think 80% or something of all applicants are put in the CAP. I interviewed in September and I am in the CAP. So you are 80% interviewing for the CAP. People who interviewed this year have been getting in, but not the majority. I don't think your chances are any worse than someone who interviewed in the fall, I think they are actually interviewing you with hopes that you will be better than some of us CAPers. If you like the school, go for it!
This doesn't make sense. They only interview less than 10% of all applicants. Of that 10% they accept about 40% but only half take the acceptance leaving a class size of 20% of the people interviewed. If only half take an acceptance that means about half came from the cap list. So if you were to recalculate that... I guess you could choose a maximum of 80% of all interviewed get on cap assuming they don't reject postinterview (giving a true max). This would mean that they accept 2% of all applicants and cap 8%. 8% is high because they do reject many post interview.