2010 - 2011 MSAR Admission Statistics

[homestar]

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I was just flipping through the MSAR and I am baffled by the applied to matriculated ratio--even for state schools. I calculated 3% - 14%. These numbers are downright scary. I feel that if individuals have already completed their premedical requirements, graduated college, landed recommendations, and were even bold enough to take the MCAT, that those numbers should be higher. Now, I realize that some applicants may be sending applications to 10 - 12 schools, and some of those may be reach schools. An earlier posting said that these numbers are inflated.

My question is this: Are there individuals applying to medical school that just have no business applying? Further, does anyone know of total US applicant/matriculant ratios for all schools? (or a source of this info?)

Thanks.

 

[WhizoMD]

I was just flipping through the MSAR and I am baffled by the applied to matriculated ratio--even for state schools. I calculated 3% - 14%. These numbers are downright scary. I feel that if individuals have already completed their premedical requirements, graduated college, landed recommendations, and were even bold enough to take the MCAT, that those numbers should be higher. Now, I realize that some applicants may be sending applications to 10 - 12 schools, and some of those may be reach schools. An earlier posting said that these numbers are inflated.

My question is this: Are there individuals applying to medical school that just have no business applying? Further, does anyone know of total US applicant/matriculant ratios for all schools? (or a source of this info?)

Thanks.

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2008/2008summary2.htm
this one shows about 42% of applicants matriculating in 2008(45% were accepted), so it's not that bad.

 

[wanderer]

Average applicant sends primaries to 13 schools. 43% of applicants get in somewhere. So that would mean there are ~30 primaries sent for every seat....

 

[hqt331]

Average applicant sends primaries to 13 schools. 43% of applicants get in somewhere. So that would mean there are ~30 primaries sent for every seat....

Forgive me, but could you explain the math in a little more detail? I'm not following.

 

[Planet Earth]

Somewhat off the topic question. When does the next edition of the MSAR come out? Is the 2010-2011 MSAR for those applying this cycle (class of 2014) or for next cycle (class of 2015)?? Thanks.

 

[FloatOn]

My question is this: Are there individuals applying to medical school that just have no business applying? Further, does anyone know of total US applicant/matriculant ratios for all schools? (or a source of this info?)

Thanks.

Yes! I don't want to judge people without knowing their story, but sometimes you have to wonder if they are truly interested in investing the time and money to become a doctor.

 

[BBender716]

Don't go by "matriculated" to determine selectivity. You have to realize that this does NOT account for the tons of people who receive acceptances and choose not to attend. This drastically improves the odds.

Let's say that 10% of students matriculate who apply. If even half of all acceptances choose to matriculate (half is very high for most schools, it's usually lower), than that means the actual acceptance rate (off the waitlist + straight up acceptance) is 20%. If you pick a more reasonable matriculation:acceptance ratio, you could have an acceptance rate closer to 30%, even 40%. And these numbers seem a lot more in line with the general AAMC statistics combining all schools.

 

[wanderer]

Forgive me, but could you explain the math in a little more detail? I'm not following.

13/.43 = 30
Or another way to look at it: For every 30 primaries that are sent there are 2.3 people sending them (because average person sends 13). 43% of applicants matriculate, and 2.3 * .43 = 1.0.

 

[randombetch]

13/.43 = 30
Or another way to look at it: For every 30 primaries that are sent there are 2.3 people sending them (because average person sends 13). 43% of applicants matriculate, and 2.3 * .43 = 1.0.

Isn't this assuming each person only gets accepted to exactly 1 school?

If 30 primaries per seat were accurate, wouldn't the average med school acceptance rate be 3%? I think the average is at least 5-6%.

 

[homestar]

Forgive me, but could you explain the math in a little more detail? I'm not following.

What part of the math?

My conjecture, and it seems to be confirmed by the responses, was that if one applicant sent out 20 applications (even to schools for which they were not necessarily qualified or had little intention of attending), then the ratio of applications to matriculants would look inflated. Given the fact that the mean applications per applicant is 13 (if this number is indeed correct), than that conjecture would seem to hold water.

So, if you just look at the MSAR, it looks like Johns Hopkins, for instance, receives 5,000 (approximate) applications and only 120 (approximate) seats are ultimately filled from that pool. The responses are indicating that they're not necessarily outright rejecting 4,880 applicants though--the situation is more complicated than that.

The number that I was really after, and the number in which I was really interested, is the: 30 - 40% of total applicants get in somewhere, which still seems low (after all that struggle), but a lot less frightening than 2.4%.

I suppose that if the rest are really serious, then there are spots for RNs, LPNs, PAs, Licensed Social Workers, Psychologists, Technicians, Allied Health, and other Health Care workers.

I'm assuming that the 30 - 40% is includung D.O. schools, although I don't think that all D.O. schools are covered by AAMC.

 

[wanderer]

Isn't this assuming each person only gets accepted to exactly 1 school?

If 30 primaries per seat were accurate, wouldn't the average med school acceptance rate be 3%? I think the average is at least 5-6%.

Yea that's why the second time I used the word matriculant instead of applicant. In the grand scheme of things % matriculated and % accepted are pretty similar. So the "matriculant rate" is around 3.3%. Trying to figure out the specifics of number of acceptances offered per seat would be pretty complicated. There are several acceptances offered for each seat, so one's odds are a lot better than these numbers would indicate.

 

[futuredoctor10]

Somewhat off the topic question. When does the next edition of the MSAR come out? Is the 2010-2011 MSAR for those applying this cycle (class of 2014) or for next cycle (class of 2015)?? Thanks.

The 2010-2011 MSAR is for those applying for this cycle, who will matriculate in 2010 for the Class of 2014.

The latest MSAR is released each year in the Spring (April I believe).

That being said, I am sure the information won't change that drastically from this year's book to the one released in April 2010.