2012 Verification Data Graphed

[DAPI]

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So after posting this in the official thread where everyone actually posted their dates, I realized no one is actually going to see this in there so I decided to make a new thread.

I had some time to kill today so I gathered the current data and made a graph.

Outliers due to EDP have been taken out and if transcripts were not in before submission, I used the day the transcript was received as the submission date.

Here is last year's data too:

My trendline gave me an equation of y = -0.015x^2 + 1231x - 3*10^7 but I could not for the life of me figure out how to compare the two trendlines.. like what is excel using for x? Cause it can't use a date so I have no idea. If someone knows, maybe you can plot the two trendlines on a single graph to give them a real comparison. I tried overlaying the two graphs in photoshop, but could not get it to work.

 

[NickNaylor]

So after posting this in the official thread where everyone actually posted their dates, I realized no one is actually going to see this in there so I decided to make a new thread.

I had some time to kill today so I gathered the current data and made a graph.

Outliers due to EDP have been taken out and if transcripts were not in before submission, I used the day the transcript was received as the submission date.

Here is last year's data too:

My trendline gave me an equation of y = -0.015x^2 + 1231x - 3*10^7 but I could not for the life of me figure out how to compare the two trendlines.. like what is excel using for x? Cause it can't use a date so I have no idea. If someone knows, maybe you can plot the two trendlines on a single graph to give them a real comparison. I tried overlaying the two graphs in photoshop, but could not get it to work.

As far as the value of x, it may assign x=1 to the first date you use and increase it incrementally from there.

Nice work - looks good.

 

[lobo.solo]

Thanks, this looks very helpful.

 

[Praefectus]

Solid work, DAPI.

 

[DAPI]

Now this is a much more interesting graph to look at.

 

[lpp06]

I did something like this awhile ago to figure out how many apps they can process in a day, i think i came up with some number around 500. It didnt sound right so I scrapped the work.

 

[ShenanigansMD]

Too much substrate, not enough enzyme.

Oh... right, amcas verification times.

 

[IslandStyle808]

Too much substrate, not enough enzyme.

Oh... right, amcas verification times.

Too much competitive inhibition (IMO)...

Hence the longer verification times.

 

[cheechootrain]

Great work! It really shows how applying early is to your advantage. As they said, the first on the train gets the window seat.

 

[lpp06]

As far as the value of x, it may assign x=1 to the first date you use and increase it incrementally from there.

Nice work - looks good.

I think Excel converts the date some other way, if you plug in a number like 45, it gives you something wayyyyyyy off.

 

[DAPI]

I think Excel converts the date some other way, if you plug in a number like 45, it gives you something wayyyyyyy off.

I read excel assign 01/01/1990 as 1 and counts up from there. Even that does not work to replot the data though as 1x10^7 is such a large generic number with huge rounding error which is why I just extracted the data from 2011, which was actually really easy cause it was all formatted the same in the official thread. The 2012 data was a mess on the other hand...

 

[Lucky Louie]

Wow, that's a huge difference in getting an application verified year-to-year. Wonder why the time to verify has increased. Last year's cycle, if you submitted everything 30 days after the opening bell, it would take then 25 days to verify, but in 2012, it would take 35 days. Do you think there are more applicants this year? Do you think this changes anything at the med schools?

 

[NickNaylor]

Wow, that's a huge difference in getting an application verified year-to-year. Wonder why the time to verify has increased. Last year's cycle, if you submitted everything 30 days after the opening bell, it would take then 25 days to verify, but in 2012, it would take 35 days. Do you think there are more applicants this year? Do you think this changes anything at the med schools?

Who knows. The number of applications shouldn't impact on the speed at which they're verified. It won't affect med schools at all because there are more than enough verified apps to review when they are released to schools. Not to mention the real bottleneck is in completing the secondary.

(sent from my phone)

 

[DAPI]

Another graph for you guys to ponder 😀

This does not bode well for next year...

 

[PNW]

I posted this elsewhere, before DAPI showed me his own excellent work on the topic. My plot is fairly redundant, though nicely corroborates DAPI's 2012 trace.

I would just add the comment that there are effectively three phases:

(1) During the first month after submission opens (June 5th to early July), verification time increases rapidly with each passing day.

(2) During the second month (early July to early August), verification time is steady at about 5-6 weeks.

(3) Verification time decreases gradually beginning in early August.

******



I have attempted to summarize submission data (using the AMCAS twitter postings for apps received) and verification data (using this thread information) in a single graphic. It may be useful for future applicants.

The black trace shows the cumulative number of apps submitted, which increases somewhat linearly over the course of the application season before tapering off slightly late in the admissions season (not shown).

More interesting is the red trace, which approximates the maximum verification time for primary app submissions on a given date (assumes transcripts have been received by AAMC before that date). Maximum AMCAS verification time increases rapidly from about one week for June 5th submissions to four weeks for June 25th submissions. From late June through mid August, the verification time is about 5 to 6 weeks, before declining for late submissions.

Submission --- Verification
June 5th ----- June 5 - June 12
June 12th ----- June 26 - July 2
June 19th ----- July 14 - July 17
June 26th ----- July 25 - July 30
July 3rd ----- August 7 - August 9
July 10th ----- August 15 - August 17

 

[Catalystik]

This does not bode well for next year...

Nicely depicted.

 

[phikapdoctor]

Nicely depicted.

nice avatar. It's about that time of the year.
😀

 

[JBOB]

Does anyone have the data on how many students submitted in June vs July vs August, ect? I just wanna know how late my app was relative to the rest of the application pool, not that there's anything I can do about it anyway.

 

[DAPI]

Does anyone have the data on how many students submitted in June vs July vs August, ect? I just wanna know how late my app was relative to the rest of the application pool, not that there's anything I can do about it anyway.

So we have a graph... that has lots of data on it... including time points that say how many apps had been submitted.... What do you think we can do with that graph?

Some quick math results in:
June: ~16,000
July: ~10,000
August: ~6,500
September: ~5,000

If you want exact numbers you can do your own legwork here or send PNW a PM that is a little more thought out than this post.





Yeah, I know I'm a dick, but seriously 🙄

 

[JBOB]

So we have a graph... that has lots of data on it... including time points that say how many apps had been submitted.... What do you think we can do with that graph?

Some quick math results in:
June: ~16,000
July: ~10,000
August: ~6,500
September: ~5,000

If you want exact numbers you can do your own legwork here or send PNW a PM that is a little more thought out than this post.





Yeah, I know I'm a dick, but seriously 🙄

Well... to defend myself just a little, the graphs on the original thread don't show how many applications were submitted, they only show # of days to be verified vs date of submission. The graph you just posted gives the information I was asking for, but that wasn't in the OP, which is why I asked for it. You are a dick, DAPI, but you took the time to put this data together and post it on SDN, so you're cool with me, bra.

 

[DAPI]

Well... to defend myself just a little, the graphs on the original thread don't show how many applications were submitted, they only show # of days to be verified vs date of submission. The graph you just posted gives the information I was asking for, but that wasn't in the OP, which is why I asked for it. You are a dick, DAPI, but you took the time to put this data together and post it on SDN, so you're cool with me, bra.

Yes, but it was exactly 3 post above your first post.

 

[JBOB]

Yes, but it was exactly 3 post above your first post.

True... but it is too small to read how the Y-axis is labeled, you see, so I would have had no way of knowing that it gave the # of applicants (not just the time to be verified) without some crazy zooming action. Sure, I could have gone through and read all the text instead of looking at the figures, but who does that?

 

[Narmerguy]

Great work!