Dear Advisors,
The delivery of 2014 AMCAS data to medical schools has been delayed while we work with our IT counterparts to conduct additional testing and analysis to ensure the accuracy of the data. Data delivery will be delayed by a minimum of one week, so the earliest date medical schools will begin receiving data is Friday, July 5.
During this period, applicants may continue to complete and submit applications to AMCAS. We will also continue to accept Letters of Evaluation via the Letter Writer Application, VirtualEvals, Interfolio and U.S. mail. Our team of verifiers is working steadily to process applications, and their work remains uninterrupted. As of today, we have received close to 15,000 applications and over 3,000 of those have been verified. If you have questions or concerns, please don't hesitate to contact us at
[email protected] or 202-828-0950.
We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this delay. We will provide an additional update early next week.
Thank you,
AMCAS Manager, Applications and Communications
This is interesting for many reasons.
1) Last year there were ~45000 applicants. Assuming a similar number this year (there will almost certainly be 500-2000 more though) that means that before the end of June 1/3rd of applicants have already submitted.
2) Of those applicants, at least 1/5th submitted on the first day (or really by day 5 due to the delay on AMCAS opening)
3) AAMC's average rate of verification is ~176 applications/day
4) With a 12,000 application backlog, that means that a person who submitted today is looking at a verification time of 68 days or 9 weeks.
It looks like it's time to rethink what qualifies an application as "early". Apparently the days of an early July submission still being early are history. It may be the case that from now on you're only early if you submit within the first week of applications opening, and you're late if you don't submit by week 2.
As an aside, god pity the poor soul who waits until July or later to submit their application. If we're already looking at 9 week verification times this early, it's not crazy to think that someone who submits mid-July is looking at 12+ weeks. It'll be interesting to see what happens if the remaining 2/3rds of applicants can't even get their apps in before most schools' deadlines pass. It may be the case that this year we're going to see a lot of deadline extensions.
edit 2: So to give a rough (read: faulty) estimate of when you can expect your application to be reviewed:
Taking an average of 12,000 applications submitted since the 10th (16 days since I'm sure AAMC wasn't including today in those figures they cited) that gives 750 applications received per day. 3000 applications were received on day 1, but since that was really equivalent to day 5 in past cycles, we'll say 3000 / 5 for an average of 600 applications received per day at the start. That roughly agrees with the first estimate, and you would expect more apps to be received each day than on any previous day (which is why this estimate is faulty). Thus, with AAMC's rate of verification combined with the rate they receive new applications at,
each passing day adds 4 more days to verification time.
To calculate a crappy estimate of how long you have to wait (not applicable for people who submitted on the 10th), use this formula:
[ ( 705 * [days since AMCAS opened when you submitted] ) / 176 ] - [days since AAMC finished with June 10th applications] = amount of time left until verified
So since I submitted on 6/19 that means I can expect to be verified 38 days from whenever AAMC finally finishes up with the June 10th applications.