From my experience, after engaging in this process a second year in a row, I strongly agree with erg that this is a variable process and you can't make too many assumptions based on what you know about one site. Also, things change for individual sites from year to year too. For example, my application is much stronger this year, there is no doubt about it, but a site that interviewed me last year rejected me this year. I knew an intern at the site, and they let me know that the application review procedures were changed this year. Even though my application was stronger than last year, they simply weighted components of applications differently this year and decided to interview fewer applicants, and those two factors had me missing the cut. Conversly, sites that sent me rejections last year are now choosing to interview me. I also choose to believe that some sites must weed out people before looking closely at applications, because how could they not see I was a perfect fit for the site after looking at my awesome CV and essays 😛. The bottom line is, it's really a crapshoot and you just have wait and see what happens. Focus on preparing for the interviews you get, because that will be something in your control, rather than trying to predict you chances at other sites you haven't heard from or make sense of rejections.
