So do people actually get emails saying "you are ranked to match," or are emails saying "you are in a rank position that will result in a successful match based on our match history" as good as it gets?
It varies too much to say reliably. I send letters to the top of my list that state that they will match with us if they want to, but I do not send it to anyone beyond the ones that are guaranteed. The rest get very encouraging letters, but no commitment.
The issue is that ranked to match can mean different things to different people. To me, it means that if I have 15 spots and you are in the top 15, you are ranked to match. That is a purist approach. To others it means, we typically go to number 80 to fill 15 spots and you're in our top 80, so, you are RTM. So, if they have a really good match and only go to 60, it appears that they have lied to you. That is the non-purist approach.
I have heard of one PD who believed in full disclosure and told people to email them later if they wanted to know where they are on the rank list. He would then give the previous years' match stats and assign a probability of matching at the program based on that information. That's the full disclosure approach. I think those are rare, just as the candidates that give full disclosure are not the norm.
I truly believe that the non-purist PD's do not try to intentionally deceive, so if they tell you that you are RTM, they likely believe it.
All of that being said, you, as the applicant, have no way of knowing which approach the PD is taking when they make that statement unless you have a very frank conversation with them or with someone else who
does know their history (for example, if a resident tells you that it is a
big deal that you got that letter because most do not). So, applicants are left in the dark as far as knowing whose words to trust and whose not to trust. You will likely not have a sense of this type of information (if the PD's word is to be trusted or not) until you are well into or almost finished with your residency.