925 DO grads unmatched this year. Stop school expansion?

[deleted950463]

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6001 DO grads applied in the match, 925 didn’t match. A further 169 ranked no programs.

Almost 1 in 6 DOs applied for the ACGME match this year didn’t match.

Can our leaders do something?

 

[BorntobeDO?]

6001 DO grads applied in the match, 925 didn’t match. A further 169 ranked no programs.

Almost 1 in 6 DOs applied for the ACGME match this year didn’t match.

Can our leaders do something?

You have to wait and see about those students. We won't know for a couple months how they actually turned out. I would bet that about 250 of them don't place. Which is still a travesty, but its not 1/6.

 

[hallowmann]

Real match rate is probably same as usual, upper 80s. I’ll let @hallowmann break it down for you, as he does yearly

Prelim numbers here: Net gain of 1600 positions in former AOA programs during merger transition. Discuss.

Waiting for some more report breakdowns so we can get better numbers, but it likely hasn't budged.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

Okay so I found a post where I actually predicted what I thought the losses would be based on previous years finally:
Whoot! Whoot! Total Enrollment 28981, Number of Schools Up

You the man!

I am moving this post over here cause its more appropriate:

A side note I was sent a slide with the gradation placement rates for this year and last. So I had some fun with numbers.

There were 6350 grads this year. 121 didn't match/place. Last year there were 5984, and 39 didn't match/place. So with 366 more DOs, 82 additional didn't place/match. Thats 22% of new 'spots' not placing if we are projecting.

Assuming there remained an 366 increase again in 2019, (we already know that approximately 400 students were added each year in 2019 and 2020, so I think its a reasonable assumption), approx 203 wouldn't place out of projected 6716 for a 96.98% placement.
For 2020 out of 7062 projected 285 wouldn't match (95.96% placement).

2021 using our same assumptions 7428 would graduate, and 367 would not place bringing it down to 95.06% placement.

2022 is where the magic happens, and we dip below 95%, cause this class added like 800 spots, so double the normal '400.' So 8160 would graduate and 531 wouldn't place (93.49%).

So that's my prediction, is some stomping will get done after 2022, because some new DO school out there will drop below 95% by then.

***Clarity - everything is about placement in this post, placement = getting a residency either in or out of match

So I predicted 6716, but there were actually 6876 grads per hallowmanns post,* so using my old projections I would predict that of the 160 extra students beyond what I predicted, that about 36 (22%) of them didn't place. Meaning I am projecting that 239 won't place, or that only 96.5% will place based on the drop from the last couple of years. So I am actually predicting below 97%.

I do see the irony that I predicted that 'some school' would drop below 95% placement by 2022, when it actually happened last year. I bet you never knew I was an optimist?
*Net gain of 1600 positions in former AOA programs during merger transition. Discuss..

 

[hallowmann]

Okay so I found a post where I actually predicted what I thought the losses would be based on previous years finally:
Whoot! Whoot! Total Enrollment 28981, Number of Schools Up

So I predicted 6716, but there were actually 6876 grads per hallowmanns post,* so using my old projections I would predict that of the 160 extra students beyond what I predicted, that about 36 (22%) of them didn't place. Meaning I am projecting that 239 won't place, or that only 96.5% will place based on the drop from the last couple of years. So I am actually predicting below 97%.

I do see the irony that I predicted that 'some school' would drop below 95% placement by 2022, when it actually happened last year. I bet you never knew I was an optimist?
*Net gain of 1600 positions in former AOA programs during merger transition. Discuss..

For clarity, the number I'm using is based on the NATmatch data. Actual grads may be different, but generally that info is the most up-to-date, because its what schools tell the NMS regarding their students that are on track to graduate and start residency.

Also, some schools have always had issues placing students (WCU has struggled from what I recall, and I doubt last year was the first with <95% placement), but we only started actually getting data from schools in like 2014/2015, and even then some didn't release the data until later (even though it was required).

I will say, I think your assumptions are a bit pessimistic. Of the new students, I doubt we will see a constant rate of poor placement outcomes. That assumes that schools won't improve in placement rates as time goes on, which for the most part (with some exceptions), has not historically been the case. I think our real test will be next year when there is no AOA match.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

For clarity, the number I'm using is based on the NATmatch data. Actual grads may be different, but generally that info is the most up-to-date, because its what schools tell the NMS regarding their students that are on track to graduate and start residency.

Also, some schools have always had issues placing students (WCU has struggled from what I recall, and I doubt last year was the first with <95% placement), but we only started actually getting data from schools in like 2014/2015, and even then some didn't release the data until later (even though it was required).

I will say, I think your assumptions are a bit pessimistic. Of the new students, I doubt we will see a constant rate of poor outcomes. That assumes that schools won't improve in placement rates as time goes on, which for the most part (with some exceptions), has not historically been the case. I think our real test will be next year when there is no AOA match.

There are always bears and bulls. I prefer to be bearish and have pleasant surprises. But in that case, I was just using the numbers I had. 22% was the amount of 'new grads' that ended up not placing between 2017 and 2018. Obviously no ones crystal ball is perfect 😛

 

[hallowmann]

There are always bears and bulls. I prefer to be bearish and have pleasant surprises. But in that case, I was just using the numbers I had. 22% was the amount of 'new grads' that ended up not placing between 2017 and 2018. Obviously no ones crystal ball is perfect 😛

I think 2017-2018 was a tough year for people. There was a lot in the air with programs being pretty split between the NMS and NRMP matches. I think we'll have a better sense if we aggregate the data after next year. DO schools have been expanding for a while. I'll try to keep making those match threads at least while I'm still in residency, so hopefully we'll have at least a few years to add up and maybe look for some trends (who knows when stuff will disappear from the AOA websites).

Just like every year, the US House is looking into a proposal for expanding GME, we'll see about any traction (always been shot down in the past). Individual state governments are also slowly allocating funding for handfuls of spots here and there, but they tend to be primary care and psychiatry (i.e. the most in demand residencies) more than anything else.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

I think 2017-2018 was a tough year for people. There was a lot in the air with programs being pretty split between the NMS and NRMP matches. I think we'll have a better sense if we aggregate the data after next year. DO schools have been expanding for a while. I'll try to keep making those match threads at least while I'm still in residency, so hopefully we'll have at least a few years to add up and maybe look for some trends (who knows when stuff will disappear from the AOA websites).

Just like every year, the US House is looking into a proposal for expanding GME, we'll see about any traction (always been shot down in the past). Individual state governments are also slowly allocating funding for handfuls of spots here and there, but they tend to be primary care and psychiatry (i.e. the most in demand residencies) more than anything else.

In that thread that my post came from butter butters post was very interesting as he showed which residency's where gaining:

Total PGY-1 spots for 2017: 28,849
Total PGY-1 spots for 2018: 30,232, 4.8% increase

Total FM (2017): 3,356
Total FM (2018): 3,629, 8% increase

Total EM (2017): 2,047
Total EM (2018): 2,278 , 11% increase

Total IM (2017): 7,233
Total IM (2018): 7,542 , 4.2% increase

 

[Goro]

6001 DO grads applied in the match, 925 didn’t match. A further 169 ranked no programs.

Almost 1 in 6 DOs applied for the ACGME match this year didn’t match.

Can our leaders do something?

There are still more slots than there are bodies to fill them

 

[deleted950463]

There are still more slots than there are bodies to fill them

I assume you mean less DOs than the total spots in the match? Because there are more applicants in the match than spots.

 

[Goro]

I assume you mean less DOs than the total spots in the match? Because there are more applicants in the match than spots.

I'm talking about overall slots.

EDIT: NRMP has ~35000 slots? and 5% of these did not fill.

But add to that add whatever AOA slots are still left, and Mil Match. There are about ~8000 DO grads now and some 21000 US seniors, so, by my reckoning, still more slots exists for DO and MD grads than there are bodies to fill them.

I apologize if my numbers are wrong.

I'll also wager that WCU and maybe two other schools contributed the most to those who went unmatched.

 

[Lawpy]

I'm talking about overall slots.

NRMP had about what, some 30000 slots? But add to that add whatever AOA slots are still left, and Mil Match. There are about ~8000 DO grads now and some 21000 US seniors, so, by my reckoning, still more slots exists for DO and MD grads than there are bodies to fill them.

I apologize if my numbers are wrong.

I'll also wager that WCU and maybe two other schools contributed the most to those who went unmatched.

Hopefully the DO expansion stops in the future

 

[deleted950463]

I'm talking about overall slots.

NRMP had about what, some 30000 slots? But add to that add whatever AOA slots are still left, and Mil Match. There are about ~8000 DO grads now and some 21000 US seniors, so, by my reckoning, still more slots exists for DO and MD grads than there are bodies to fill them.

I apologize if my numbers are wrong.

I'll also wager that WCU and maybe two other schools contributed the most to those who went unmatched.

You have forgot about the FMGs ans US IMGs who compete with DOs. According to the NRMP press release, their match rate actually went UP.

I suspect this is due to opening of formerly AOA programs to those MD applicants.

Here are the numbers.

Press Release: Thousands of Resident Physician Applicants Celebrate NRMP Match Results - The Match, National Resident Matching Program

It maybe useful to review the NRMP press release prior to making a sweeping claim like “there are still more slots than bodies to fill them.”

 

[Dr.Bruh]

You have forgot about the FMGs ans US IMGs who compete with DOs. According to the NRMP press release, their match rate actually went UP.

I suspect this is due to opening of formerly AOA programs to those MD appl

Here are the numbers.

Press Release: Thousands of Resident Physician Applicants Celebrate NRMP Match Results - The Match, National Resident Matching Program

It maybe useful to review the NRMP press release prior to making a sweeping claim like “there are still more slots than bodies to fill them.”

context matters here. Based on this data things were objectively better for DOs compared to IMGs. IMG applicant numbers were essentially identical to last year with the same number of applicant without a rank list and withdrawal rate. DOs had 1300 more applicants than last year and actually had a substantial decrease in the number of applicant that withdrew and that had no rank list and still had a higher match rate than ever before.

 

[WhereMyLiberalsAt]

The number of unmatched includes all osteopathic applicants including previous grad

context matters here. Asked on this data things were objectively better for DOs compared to IMGs. IMG applicant number were essentially identical to last year with the same number of applicant with without a tank list and withdrawal rate. DOs has 1300 more applicants than last year and actually had a substantial decrease in the number of applicant that withdrew and that had no ra k list and still had a higher match rate than ever before.

Obi-Wan Kenobi voice (the Alec Guinness one of course.)

“These are not the facts he’s looking for.”

 

[DO2015CA]

There are still more slots than there are bodies to fill them

If the 28.9k American grads is accurate and there are 30k total slots, which include all the prelims, then no there are not enough slots for bodies. Prelim spots don’t mean jack. We need to keep our numbers lower than the residencies that can lead to BC

 

[Dr. Death]

Sure seems like the squeeze will be on next year. Does anyone have a number of how many DO students there are in class of 2020 vs. class 2019? And I suspect that a good chunk (15%+) of the programs that went AOA this year won't survive.

 

[OwurayawMD]

Sure seems like the squeeze will be on next year. Does anyone have a number of how many DO students there are in class of 2020 vs. class 2019? And I suspect that a good chunk (15%+) of the programs that went AOA this year won't survive.

why wont they survive

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

I'm talking about overall slots.

NRMP had about what, some 30000 slots? But add to that add whatever AOA slots are still left, and Mil Match. There are about ~8000 DO grads now and some 21000 US seniors, so, by my reckoning, still more slots exists for DO and MD grads than there are bodies to fill them.

I apologize if my numbers are wrong.

I'll also wager that WCU and maybe two other schools contributed the most to those who went unmatched.

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

 

[UnoMas]

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

Wow sorry to hear that. I have seen your posts on here for years, nobody would have foreseen this outcome with your stats.

I completely agree. Things are only going to get harder, on both sides MD and DO. I share rotations with MD students and a few of them with good stats, good number of interviews also had to SOAP. This year is insane.

 

[sab3156]

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

Sorry about the tough situation. Glad it worked out in the SOAP, though! I have heard some horror stories from this year. I am interested to see the data when it comes out.

 

[Goro]

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

I'm not saying that everything is unicorns and rainbows.

I've long maintained that the merger may very well push more DO graduates deeper into Primary Care, and into residencies at more rural and small city hospital locations, like Jonesboro, Arkansas or Kalispell, Montana.

In addition, if the crunch is truly upon us in residency numbers versus Total Medical School graduates , then the weakest students are the ones most at risk. There will probably be pushback on this by movement to dismiss those students well before second year. So as a consequence schools, will have a greater attrition rate. Personally, I'd rather a school have a higher attrition rate than a high unmatched rate.

I still get the sense that the weakest schools will be bearing the brunt of all of the negatives I have mentioned. So far, I think that maybe ~7% of my students failed to match but at least half of these were able to scramble.

That means about 3-4% failed to match, but, and this is a big BUT, they were the usual suspects for whom we were not surprised that they failed to match.

 

[OwurayawMD]

Glad to know that if you put in the effort and work hard you will match.

 

[sab3156]

Glad to know that if you put in the effort and work hard you will match.

Everyone knows that what you just said is completely false.

 

[OwurayawMD]

Everyone knows that what you just said is completely false.

i hear you.i will keep my knowledge to myself.

 

[DexterMorganSK]

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

It's shocking that with your stats...you had to rely on the SOAP! Congrats for the match though! 👍

 

[Osteosaur]

as an M1 how do i not become one of those 925?

It surely cannot come down to simply "1/6 chance of having a bad time"

 

[DoReMiFaSo]

people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties

True in my own n=1 case, and also consistent with the stories of my peers' experience in this match. I wish there will be data on % of DOs applicatns who matched top3 ranks vs. 3+, and not just the match as a whole.

@Drrrrrr. Celty, glad to learn that things worked out for ya in the end 👍

 

[Dr. Death]

as an M1 how do i not become one of those 925?

It surely cannot come down to simply "1/6 chance of having a bad time"

1. Do well on Step 1
2. Do well on clinical rotations
3. Be realistic about your chances. Some guys in the class above me that didn't match had poor-mediocre scores, were below average on rotations and were applying gen surg or ENT. If you get 220s on step 1 or less than 600 in COMLEX, apply smarter.
4. Interview well

 

[Dr. Death]

why wont they survive

They didn't get accreditation in time and won't be able to accept residents in 2020

 

[Goro]

as an M1 how do i not become one of those 925?

It surely cannot come down to simply "1/6 chance of having a bad time"

Go to a stronger, older school.
Don't fail.
Don't repeat a year unless it's for medical reasons
Have a well thought out list
Do aways and wow people
Network

 

[BorntobeDO?]

Goro, while I have always been keen on avoiding being dramatic and or claiming that the sky is falling. Things are going to be getting worse for DO applicants. I think we need to be realistic and reasonable about the fact that in the coming future DOs are going to need to apply more and more defensively and have higher and higher stats to match specialties which will themselves begin to grow in competition across the board.

I can say that from my own experience, I did not match this year. I ended up having to soap. And while I am quite happy with how things worked out in the end and matched at a wonderful hospital program, I am regretful in ignoring rising competition. I think it takes a person who has applied to really recognize that in many cases most match lists this year having less coastal programs, that people went down very far on their rank order lists or matched back up specialties, and that as a whole there were a lot of people unmatched.

Simply put anything with an inkling of lifestyle is going to get harder to match.

You soaped? Holy crap. I think I am applying to 2 backup specialties.

 

[Goro]

6001 DO grads applied in the match, 925 didn’t match. A further 169 ranked no programs.

Almost 1 in 6 DOs applied for the ACGME match this year didn’t match.

DDD, My math challenged brain is having trouble finding how you arrived at this number. Can you kindly elaborate?
925 DO grads unmatched this year. Stop school expansion?

 

[Stagg737]

If the 28.9k American grads is accurate and there are 30k total slots, which include all the prelims, then no there are not enough slots for bodies. Prelim spots don’t mean jack. We need to keep our numbers lower than the residencies that can lead to BC

I ran the numbers in some other thread, but there are still significantly more spots than US grads in the match even if you don't count pre-lime positions (29k to 33k including pre-lim spots if I remember correctly). That's only PGY-1 positions too and many of those pre-lim spots are people doing into derm/rads/PM&R/etc. So not black and white but still plenty of excess spots. Problem is there is an excess of FMG/IMGs who enter the match and push US grads out which creates a shortage of overall positions compared to overall applicants and that won't change anytime soon.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

I'm talking about overall slots.

EDIT: NRMP has ~35000 slots? and 5% of these did not fill.

But add to that add whatever AOA slots are still left, and Mil Match. There are about ~8000 DO grads now and some 21000 US seniors, so, by my reckoning, still more slots exists for DO and MD grads than there are bodies to fill them.

I apologize if my numbers are wrong.

I'll also wager that WCU and maybe two other schools contributed the most to those who went unmatched.

Only 32,194 where PGY1 and that includes prelims.

Now onto more interesting stuff:
For anyone wondering what is competitive vs not: Specialties with more than 30 positions that filled less than 45 percent with U.S. allopathic seniors were Family Medicine (39.0%), Internal Medicine (categorical) (41.5%), Pathology (33.4%), Pediatrics – Primary (40.0%), and Surgery – Preliminary (23.9),

Allopathic Seniors + Osteopathic seniors = 18,925 + 6876 = 25,801. There were 107 more MD's than last year vs 526 new DO Seniors. (see my above post for references). Next year will see a similar gain to this year, and the 2022 class will add double the previous two. If anyone would like to have the 'DO schools aren't adding more than MD debate' again, you have lost, its over.

Some other tidbits I found interesting:
Psych was crazy again:
Psychiatry programs offered 1,740 positions, 184 more than in 2018, and filled all but 20. The overall fill rate was 98.9 percent, and 60.6 percent were filled by U.S. allopathic seniors. Since 2015, the number of Psychiatry positions has increased by 387, or 28.6 percent.

PM&R filled during the match:

• Specialties with more than 30 positions that filled all available positions were Integrated Interventional Radiology (categorical and advanced), Otolaryngology, Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (categorical), Integrated Plastic Surgery, Surgery (Categorical), and Thoracic Surgery

For the list of specialties you should definitely give up your DO and go MD for:

• Specialties with more than 30 positions that filled more than 90 percent with U.S. allopathic seniors were Integrated Plastic Surgery (91.9%), Neurological Surgery (91.8%), Orthopedic Surgery (91.8%), Otolaryngology (93.9%), and Thoracic Surgery (91.9%).

Source:Press Release: Thousands of Resident Physician Applicants Celebrate NRMP Match Results - The Match, National Resident Matching Program

 

[deleted950463]

DDD, My math challenged brain is having trouble finding how you arrived at this number. Can you kindly elaborate?
925 DO grads unmatched this year. Stop school expansion?

DO Students that didn’t match: 925.

Students that did not rank any program in the match but did not withdraw: 169

169 + 925 = 1094

1094 / 6001 = 0.18

1/6 = 0.1667

So more than 1 in 6 didn’t quite match.

I hope you find this math satisfactory.

 

[deleted950463]

I ran the numbers in some other thread, but there are still significantly more spots than US grads in the match even if you don't count pre-lime positions (29k to 33k including pre-lim spots if I remember correctly). That's only PGY-1 positions too and many of those pre-lim spots are people doing into derm/rads/PM&R/etc. So not black and white but still plenty of excess spots. Problem is there is an excess of FMG/IMGs who enter the match and push US grads out which creates a shortage of overall positions compared to overall applicants and that won't change anytime soon.

US grads arent created equal. Us DOs are viewed at similar to US IMG/ FMG by many PDs.

 

[Dr. Death]

DO Students that didn’t match: 925.

Students that did not rank any program in the match but did not withdraw: 169

169 + 925 = 1094

1094 / 6001 = 0.18

1/6 = 0.1667

So more than 1 in 6 didn’t quite match.

I hope you find this math satisfactory.

Do the 925 and 169 account for people who are trying to match for the 2nd, 3rd time, etc? Could skew the data

 

[Angus Avagadro]

as an M1 how do i not become one of those 925?

It surely cannot come down to simply "1/6 chance of having a bad time"

I agree with the above. I would like to add that you cant get locked in to a geographic location and only apply to that city or area. You have to be willing to relocate, or risk not matching.

 

[Goro]

DO Students that didn’t match: 925.

Students that did not rank any program in the match but did not withdraw: 169

169 + 925 = 1094

1094 / 6001 = 0.18

1/6 = 0.1667

So more than 1 in 6 didn’t quite match.

I hope you find this math satisfactory.

But what is the source of the numbers? I'm not seeing anything specific to DOs in the NRMP report; just US SRs vs everyone else.

 

[deleted950463]

But what is the source of the numbers? I'm not seeing anything specific to DOs in the NRMP report; just US SRs vs everyone else.

Table 4 of the advanced data table in NRMP 2019.

 

[deleted950463]

Do the 925 and 169 account for people who are trying to match for the 2nd, 3rd time, etc? Could skew the data

Yes and yes

 

[Osteosaur]

Won't the AOA merger be adding a number of highly DO friendly programs to that match that will probably have some DO preference relative to Caribbean grads?

 

[Stagg737]

US grads arent created equal. Us DOs are viewed at similar to US IMG/ FMG by many PDs.

That wasn't the point of the comment. Point was that there are plenty of positions for US grads and that if you're a strong enough applicant who applies properly it won't be a problem unless you're extremely unlucky. If you want to talk about how degrees are viewed, that varies highly and a (very) few PDs actually view IMGs more highly than DOs. Not something worth worrying about.

 

[deleted950463]

That wasn't the point of the comment. Point was that there are plenty of positions for US grads and that if you're a strong enough applicant who applies properly it won't be a problem unless you're extremely unlucky. If you want to talk about how degrees are viewed, that varies highly and a (very) few PDs actually view IMGs more highly than DOs. Not something worth worrying about.

Except statistics doesn’t support that right now. IMG match rate is going up despite infusion of DOs. This is only possible if the old AOA spots are taking those folks. You can make the argument that maybe new non AOA spots are being opened but it doesn’t explain the jump this year.

Next year’s match will be very revealing.

 

[Stagg737]

Except statistics doesn’t support that right now. IMG match rate is going up despite infusion of DOs. This is only possible if the old AOA spots are taking those folks. You can make the argument that maybe new non AOA spots are being opened but it doesn’t explain the jump this year.

Next year’s match will be very revealing.

How much did the IMG match rate go up? 1-2% or 5-10%? The former is normal variation. The latter could be more concerning for DOs. Plus as Hallowman and others said in another thread, the ACGME match rate for DOs actually went up and is in the upper 80% for ACGME this year. Who knows what next year will be like. The merger was always going to hurt DOs in terms of sheer numbers, it's just a matter of how much and if it will be in all fields or just the really competitive fields.

 

[hallowmann]

DO Students that didn’t match: 925.

Students that did not rank any program in the match but did not withdraw: 169

169 + 925 = 1094

1094 / 6001 = 0.18

1/6 = 0.1667

So more than 1 in 6 didn’t quite match.

I hope you find this math satisfactory.

6001 shouldn't be used as the denominator. That number includes only "active participants," meaning those that have submitted an ROL with at least one rank. If you added them to the denominator as well then its 17.7%, but those are people that didn't apply ACGME, they just opted to submit no ROL, so no matter what they would have increased the "unmatched" rate.

Without having all the numbers its impossible to say what the match/unmatched DO rates are, but it's broken down elsewhere as between 82.3-90.5% match, and most likely is close to the middle around 87% given the past DO grads.

@hallowmann broke it down in another thread. It’s berween 85-87%

Its not official yet, but that's the middle of the range and a reasonable estimate. I'm still hoping AACOM releases their numbers so I can narrow it down a bit.

 

[Trollest]

Sorry but what are his stats?

Wow sorry to hear that. I have seen your posts on here for years, nobody would have foreseen this outcome with your stats.

I completely agree. Things are only going to get harder, on both sides MD and DO. I share rotations with MD students and a few of them with good stats, good number of interviews also had to SOAP. This year is insane.

 

[Solodyn]

Unlike Goro, I have always been in the "sky is falling" camp. All the derm acceptance by DOs are mostly at previous AOA programs (Ohio and Florida). Our previously DO derm program this year participated in NRMP for the first time and we accepted one resident; she is an MD. At the rate of new schools opening, there will come a day that placement rate start dropping and desirable specialties become out of reach for most DOs.

Combining this with AOA Board Certification changes, I see possibility of DO profession ending within 10 years time. I know this is an outrageous claim. But who would have believed 10 years ago that there will be no more DO residency programs of any kind?

 

[deleted951662]

Unlike Goro, I have always been in the "sky is falling" camp. All the derm acceptance by DOs are mostly at previous AOA programs (Ohio and Florida). Our previously DO derm program this year participated in NRMP for the first time and we accepted one resident; she is an MD. At the rate of new schools opening, there will come a day that placement rate start dropping and desirable specialties become out of reach for most DOs.

Combining this with AOA Board Certification changes, I see possibility of DO profession ending within 10 years time. I know this is an outrageous claim. But who would have believed 10 years ago that there will be no more DO residency programs of any kind?

I agree. It seems like the only logical conclusion