925 DO grads unmatched this year. Stop school expansion?

[FourniersGreenGang]

Sadly, NBOME will fight tooth and nail to prevent the red from happening. I just hope to live long enough to see COMLEX go the way of the dodo.

Agreed. What has been very interesting is that despite the writing on the wall, NBOME seems to have doubled down on the COMLEX. Perhaps this could be a case of the candle flickering brightest before it is extinguished but, unfortunately, I think not.

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[BlueBleck]

Regarding the bolded, in absolute number of spots, MD schools have expanded almost as many as DO schools in the last 15 yrs. That's the reason there used to be 15k US MD grads, and now there are 21k.

however from 85' to 2010, there was virtually no increase in slots on the MD side. Whereas on the DO side, there was an expansion from a little under 2k to 6k.

Osteopathic medicine in the United States - Wikipedia

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/S8p3XotZRpI/AAAAAAAANQ4/9Bn63-6lmgs/s1600/medschool.jpg from CARPE DIEM: Med School Grads Haven't Increased Since 1980; Nurses Can Help, But the AMA Protects Its Turf

and Total Number of Medical School Graduates to confirm blogpost data as best I could, as the blog cited data has expired (from aamc site). also another quick thing. i was somewhat cursorily googling, and couldn't find osteo grad numbers, as opposed to 1st yr enrollment. i realize there's a difference, but even at an extreme attrition rate of 20%, the main point holds. Having been at some AOA stuff, I was told our recent numbers, but can't remember the exact figures. But that I don't remember suggests that it wasn't noteworthy. I'm assuming that the current attrition rate is lower than 20%.

 

[azygos the grey]

One year of IMG improvement is not a trend, especially after numerous years of things getting worse. I think IMGs/FMGs prospects will be largely unchanged with a slight net change to positive or negative, but we won't be able to discern actual trends for another 3-4 years.



DO was never a slam dunk for specialties or truly weak students who don't shotgun their application or apply to mostly undesirable programs. Anyone who thought this is either ignorant or delusional.

If all you care about is matching, then it's still not a problem. This year there were 30,232 PGY-1 positions available and 29,040 total matches. Meaning there were 1,192 positions available for SOAP and I can guarantee plenty that didn't fill (which people can try and call around about after SOAP). If all you care about is being a doctor, you can almost certainly do it unless you're red flags are so bad that all programs would literally rather not fill their position than take you. In which case one should re-evaluate whether they should actually enter the profession.

As someone with no red flags, took both USMLE's, failed to Match and SOAP, and was incredibly lucky to land a TRI position, I'm going to have to stop you here.

I seriously thought I'd never have issues matching, but it happened to me and classmates with better boards than mine. All those spots after SOAP go to people with connections. If you go to a no name school like mine, you have no way to get into these programs. I couldn't even get a surgical prelim to look at me. There's too many students and not enough spots, DO is gonna be the new carribbean.

 

[Goro]

As someone with no red flags, took both USMLE's, failed to Match and SOAP, and was incredibly lucky to land a TRI position, I'm going to have to stop you here.

I seriously thought I'd never have issues matching, but it happened to me and classmates with better boards than mine. All those spots after SOAP go to people with connections. If you go to a no name school like mine, you have no way to get into these programs. I couldn't even get a surgical prelim to look at me. There's too many students and not enough spots, DO is gonna be the new carribbean.

Maybe for a few years, but COCA has sanctions , and the AOA is not the ABA.

 

[asnontraditionalasitgets]

Maybe for a few years, but COCA has sanctions , and the AOA is not the ABA.

I know that you do not agree with the path COCA has chosen to follow, so this is not directed at you. However, I believe it has been mentioned on SDN how lawsuits could be on the horizon due to negligence. It should not take a few years of student suffering for academic leaders, schools, or businesses to plan for sustainability. Of course, maybe the medical school bubble is modeling itself after the massive fraud that occurred in the mortgage and real estate industry a decade ago. Despite SDN‘s popularity, there are still plenty of students blindly marching into debt while schools, branch campuses, and class size expansion continues relatively unimpeded.

 

[Goro]

I know that you do not agree with the path COCA has chosen to follow, so this is not directed at you. However, I believe it has been mentioned on SDN how lawsuits could be on the horizon due to negligence. It should not take a few years of student suffering for academic leaders, schools, or businesses to plan for sustainability. Of course, maybe the medical school bubble is modeling itself after the massive fraud that occurred in the mortgage and real estate industry a decade ago. Despite SDN‘s popularity, there are still plenty of students blindly marching into debt while schools, branch campuses, and class size expansion continues relatively unimpeded.

The problem with your logic is that people go to med school willingly, and there is no fraud behind the admissions or education process .

There are still more residency slots than bodies to fill them. A lawyer for A OA and COCA could simply say that the students weren't good enough to convince a PD to hire them .

I DO like the idea of a lawsuit though. They might fold, like AAMC did with the business of the Multiple Acceptance Report.

 

[libertyyne]

I know that you do not agree with the path COCA has chosen to follow, so this is not directed at you. However, I believe it has been mentioned on SDN how lawsuits could be on the horizon due to negligence. It should not take a few years of student suffering for academic leaders, schools, or businesses to plan for sustainability. Of course, maybe the medical school bubble is modeling itself after the massive fraud that occurred in the mortgage and real estate industry a decade ago. Despite SDN‘s popularity, there are still plenty of students blindly marching into debt while schools, branch campuses, and class size expansion continues relatively unimpeded.

All of education is like this. There is no guarantee of employment after graduation from college, law school or any other professional school. Only an education that qualifies you to obtain said positions.

 

[Dr.Bruh]

As someone with no red flags, took both USMLE's, failed to Match and SOAP, and was incredibly lucky to land a TRI position, I'm going to have to stop you here.

I seriously thought I'd never have issues matching, but it happened to me and classmates with better boards than mine. All those spots after SOAP go to people with connections. If you go to a no name school like mine, you have no way to get into these programs. I couldn't even get a surgical prelim to look at me. There's too many students and not enough spots, DO is gonna be the new carribbean.

Sorry that happened but your n=1 anecdote doesn’t speak to the aggregate. There’s a million other DO anecdotes that can go against yours. For instance my old roommate had 3 preclinical failures, 30%ile step/comlex, and was one of the most unlikeable people and constant with bickering with her preceptors. Matched university IM. Also there are MDs with sky high board score that don’t match. Some people are victims of the algorithm. Also I know someone who didn’t match OB but soaped into university family med program. So soap programs are probably harder for DOs to get but they do get them

 

[Wjldenver]

It is a simple supply and demand issue. As other posters have mentioned, there is no guarantee of employment after you attend a graduate program. Here is the disclaimer Western University constantly uses on their websites and other recruitment materials:

Completion of a program of study does not guarantee placement into a residency program, future employment, licensure or credentialing.

But, as the supply of medical school grads exceeds the number of residency positions, all applicants should choose wisely. There are only a handful of high performing DO schools which I recommend to potential students.

 

[NecrotizingFasciitis]

FWIW:

Total Applications: 44,603

USMD: 18,925 (+107)
Previous USMD Grads: 1485 (-26)
DO: 6001 (+1,384 --> 29.9% increase)
Canadian: 15 (+2)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 1 (-1)
IMG (US citizen): 5080 (+5)
IMG (non-US citizen): 6869 (-198)

Matched: 30,550 (79.6%)

USMD: 93.9% ( -0.4%)
Previous MD Grads: 45.4% (+1.6%)
DO: 84.6% (+2.9%)
Canadian: 80% (+41.5%)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 0% (no change)
IMG (US Citizen): 59% (+1.9%)
IMG (non-US Citizen): 58.6% (+2.5%)

Unmatched: 7,826 (20.4%)

USMD: 1,162 (+84)
Previous MD Grads: 811 (-38)
DO: 925 (+79)
Canadian: 3 (-5)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 1 (no change)
IMG (US Citizen): 2083 (-92)
IMG (non-US Citizen): 2,841 (-264)

Summary:

USMD: No significant change.**
Previous MD Grad: No significant change.**
Canadian: Good year for them I suppose; small applicant pool, eh?
DO: Despite a 29.9% increase in total applicants, there was still a 2.9% increase in match rate.
Fifth Pathway Programs: wtf.
IMG (US Citizen): No dramatic change in applicant number (-5); increased match rate (+1.5%)
IMG (non-US Citizen): Decreased applicant pool (198); increased match rate (+2.5%; -264 un-matched); pretty significant** actually; honestly a pretty good improvement for this group. Overall match rate is still garbage tho (58.6%.)

** = IMO; didn't do any mathz for this.

Source (table 4): https://mk0nrmpcikgb8jxyd19h.kinsta...oads/2019/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2019_WWW.pdf

 

[asnontraditionalasitgets]

The problem with your logic is that people go to med school willingly, and there is no fraud behind the admissions or education process .

There are still more residency slots than bodies to fill them. A lawyer for A OA and COCA could simply say that the students weren't good enough to convince a PD to hire them.

I agree. Also, the mortgage industry is an extreme example where people were willingly overextending themselves. Unfortunately, there is no short sale or bankruptcy for a graduate degree.

The schools have it in their best interest to have a rigorous admission process and I believe they do a good job vetting incoming students. There is no fraud perpetrated by the schools. Except for the rare inability to accurately calculate GME placement stats displayed on a school website. Few can argue that COCA has done enough to show they are looking out for the students—especially after removing the GME placement rate requirement. Even more so after allowing branch expansion for schools already facing heightened monitoring.

Lawsuits against the ABA and law schools have been unsuccessful. Not sure if anyone has tried to stop the ACPE or pharmacy school overexpansion. Which is why there will continue to be few legal repercussions and individuals will be left holding the debt.

All of education is like this. There is no guarantee of employment after graduation from college, law school or any other professional school. Only an education that qualifies you to obtain said positions.

No one is asking for a guarantee. They are asking for school expansion to be reined in before there is a problem with placement. This should not be done be in a reactionary manner only after the appearance of poor placement rates. Maybe SDN regulars just enjoy the doomsday prophecies. But many seem to feel that COCA and educational leaders are not doing enough in anticipation of the residency crunch so that it does not end up like other graduate degrees. Not everyone should pursue a professional degree. They should be stopped at the gates before investing time and incurring significant debt.

 

[libertyyne]

I agree. Also, the mortgage industry is an extreme example where people were willingly overextending themselves. Unfortunately, there is no short sale or bankruptcy for a graduate degree.

The schools have it in their best interest to have a rigorous admission process and I believe they do a good job vetting incoming students. There is no fraud perpetrated by the schools. Except for the rare inability to accurately calculate GME placement stats displayed on a school website. Few can argue that COCA has done enough to show they are looking out for the students—especially after removing the GME placement rate requirement. Even more so after allowing branch expansion for schools already facing heightened monitoring.

Lawsuits against the ABA and law schools have been unsuccessful. Not sure if anyone has tried to stop the ACPE or pharmacy school overexpansion. Which is why there will continue to be few legal repercussions and individuals will be left holding the debt.



No one is asking for a guarantee. They are asking for school expansion to be reined in before there is a problem with placement. This should not be done be in a reactionary manner only after the appearance of poor placement rates. Maybe SDN regulars just enjoy the doomsday prophecies. But many seem to feel that COCA and educational leaders are not doing enough in anticipation of the residency crunch so that it does not end up like other graduate degrees. Not everyone should pursue a professional degree. They should be stopped at the gates, not investing time and incurring significant debt.

Asking coca/AOA to regulate themselves is like handing a crack pipe full of crack to an addict for safe keeping. Their entire power/ income, stems from the fact that they allowed rampant expansion. The only way this will end is with decreased placement and match rates down the line, maybe that will trigger some self restraint, but I doubt that since they will start lobbying for increases in residency spots.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

Regarding the bolded, in absolute number of spots, MD schools have expanded almost as many as DO schools in the last 15 yrs. That's the reason there used to be 15k US MD grads, and now there are 21k.

hallowmann, you may have noticed I addressed this in an earlier post, we added over 500 students this year, while MD added just over 100. We are expanding much faster than they are now. Especially in the next couple of years.

 

[PickleRickelus]

Many of us are walking examples of benefitting from an expansion of DO slots. We're all likely better off at a DO school than at a carib. And many wouldn't be med students whatsoever if DOs didn't expand when they did, as the MD side has been exceptionally, and possibly overly, stagnant.

As an aside to your metaphor, I would argue that the people at my local cal state got a better education than me at my UC alma mater. Smaller class sizes and having a required lab component in all upper division science classes where you actually apply what you learn is a valuable experience. I couldn't help but feel like my education was like a pre packaged microwaved food court and they had a home cooked meal.

 

[FourniersGreenGang]

As an aside to your metaphor, I would argue that the people at my local cal state got a better education than me at my UC alma mater. Smaller class sizes and having a required lab component in all upper division science classes where you actually apply what you learn is a valuable experience. I couldn't help but feel like my education was like a pre packaged microwaved food court and they had a home cooked meal.

As another aside, I disagree completely. I felt that the education I received at my UC was top notch, and for an insanely low price. I was able to get into a big time research lab, access to incredible resources, access to professors who are some of the top in their fields, all of which are components of my education that aren't possible at Cal States. There's a lot at UC that goes beyond the classroom in terms of education but you have to seek it out. Maybe that is truly the difference, Cal States are more spoon fed and UCs encourage you to seek the knowledge yourself.

 

[Deecee2DO]

US grads arent created equal. Us DOs are viewed at similar to US IMG/ FMG by many PDs.

If youre talking about Carrib here then thats just completely false

 

[PickleRickelus]

As another aside, I disagree completely. I felt that the education I received at my UC was top notch, and for an insanely low price. I was able to get into a big time research lab, access to incredible resources, access to professors who are some of the top in their fields, all of which are components of my education that aren't possible at Cal States. There's a lot at UC that goes beyond the classroom in terms of education but you have to seek it out. Maybe that is truly the difference, Cal States are more spoon fed and UCs encourage you to seek the knowledge yourself.

Right, I don't disagree with the resources presented outside the classroom at a UC which are vastly superior to a Cal State. However, just because a professor is so and so top of the field in quantum physical ethereal genetical anomolies doesn't mean he/she knows how to teach let alone be a research mentor. More often than not I learned far more by going to discussion from the TAs or the supplemental instructors. Some professors were also so invested in their research that they basically just delegated all of the grading to the TAs and all they really did at that point was just lecture from a recycled set of out of date PowerPoint slides. However, I'm willing to see the big picture by recognizing it all has to do with a severe shortage of funding during my undergrad years so UC schools were hit especially hard and had to increase class sizes to get us all to graduate on time. I could not help but feel like cattle going to the slaughter house in this whole process so yes I will also agree that at the UC I felt like I wasn't spoon fed at all and had to be resourceful with how I learned the material.

Regardless, I'm glad you had a great experience, but mine (as it deals with the education itself) was just "meh" like a cheap food court microwave dinner. Now those ivy league people? That's something akin to a fancy a filet mignon on rye.

Anyways, I'm always happy to discuss pros and cons with you regarding to UC system. Feel free to PM me, I don't want to sabotage this thread.

 

[hallowmann]

however from 85' to 2010, there was virtually no increase in slots on the MD side. Whereas on the DO side, there was an expansion from a little under 2k to 6k.

Osteopathic medicine in the United States - Wikipedia

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/S8p3XotZRpI/AAAAAAAANQ4/9Bn63-6lmgs/s1600/medschool.jpg from CARPE DIEM: Med School Grads Haven't Increased Since 1980; Nurses Can Help, But the AMA Protects Its Turf

and Total Number of Medical School Graduates to confirm blogpost data as best I could, as the blog cited data has expired (from aamc site). also another quick thing. i was somewhat cursorily googling, and couldn't find osteo grad numbers, as opposed to 1st yr enrollment. i realize there's a difference, but even at an extreme attrition rate of 20%, the main point holds. Having been at some AOA stuff, I was told our recent numbers, but can't remember the exact figures. But that I don't remember suggests that it wasn't noteworthy. I'm assuming that the current attrition rate is lower than 20%.

The data is out there, you just have to dig (more so than I had to back when I started med school). Your numbers are a bit off, while you're right, US MD graduates stayed relatively stable from 1985-2005, in 2006 to the present US MD expansion had initially increased slowly, but accelerated in order for them to meet their goal of increasing US MD seats by 30% by 2016 (modest goal of 4500, which they barely missed by 500 seats, but have since surpassed). In 1985 US MD grads were`~15,000 and in 2010 they increased to 16835 (increase of ~1800), and this trend has continued with 19553 graduates in 2018 (but over 21k matriculants). Based on this, total expansion of US MD seats from 1985 to 2018 was in the realm of 4500-4600 (can't get the exact number for 1985).

As for DOs, there were 1476 graduates in 1985, and this certainly did increase, but did so only modestly initially with an increase to 2708 by 2005 (meaning while US MD schools remained stagnant, DO schools increased by ~1230 seats), but again comparing 1985 to 2010 DO grads went from 1476 to 3631 (increase of 2155, compared to a US MD increase of ~1800 in that time). If we look at 1985 to 2018, the total number of DO graduates increased from 1476 to 6416 (increase of 4940 seats). So actually, we are talking about a discrepancy of only 300-400 seats over the last 33 yrs.

For the numbers on these I used these below:
-NRMP report from 1985: https://mk0nrmpcikgb8jxyd19h.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata1985.pdf
-AAMC total graduates report: https://www.aamc.org/download/321530/data/factstableb2-1.pdf & https://www.aamc.org/download/321532/data/factstableb2-2.pdf
-AACOM total graduates report: https://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/1985-2018-gradre.xlsx?sfvrsn=45724597_106

Also regarding attrition rate, historically it has been ~8%, but some have argued its closer to 10%. They haven't released an attrition report in many years, so its hard to know for sure, especially with adding seats every year, but someone with more time could look into it and get a crude number based on matriculant and graduate numbers.

hallowmann, you may have noticed I addressed this in an earlier post, we added over 500 students this year, while MD added just over 100. We are expanding much faster than they are now. Especially in the next couple of years.

500 seats is certainly a lot, and I believe if that is the new trend (essentially adding 3 new schools every year, which first happened in 2013 - grads in 2017 - but seems to be happening more and more) that is a problem.

But its also difficult to look at any individual year. Its a gradual process. I have no idea if there are US MD schools in the pipeline, but it certainly seems like we are on track to further exceed their expansion. Again though, if you look at the time that US MDs were actively expanding (2005 to the present) we're pretty much neck and neck still in terms of absolute numbers (~4000 and matriculants ~6000). It may change in the next 4-5 yrs, but as of right now, those are the numbers.

 

[BlueBleck]

If we look at 1985 to 2018, the total number of DO graduates increased from 1476 to 6416 (increase of 4940 seats). So actually, we are talking about a discrepancy of only 300-400 seats over the last 33 yrs.

thanks for the extra cites and context.

Perhaps framed another way, DOs contributed half of the new seats in US medical schools in the last 33 years. A natural and kind of meaningless question. Is it harder to expand 3x or 1.3x? In either case, it looks like both DOs and MDs added ~30 schools each since 1985. List of medical schools in the United States - Wikipedia

Cursory googling has again failed me, but chatting with you has jogged another thought: it would be nice to take a look at the # of caribbean school grads in the match over time as well. If we're finding a sustained shunting of a large number of students over there, it indicates demand over here. Then the question to ask would be: Even if DO becomes the new carribean (which I don't think it will become even with continued expansion) would a student rather be in the US or in the carribeans? Even at 60%, it would appear that students continue to migrate over in droves. And half of them were sufficiently adequate to place somewhere in the US. That suggests to me a surplus of adequate students, and therefore space for expansion. Unless we don't believe in our own rhetoric that a resident, regardless of origin, deserves comparable respect.

 

[hallowmann]

thanks for the extra cites and context.

Perhaps framed another way, DOs contributed half of the new seats in US medical schools in the last 33 years. A natural and kind of meaningless question. Is it harder to expand 3x or 1.3x? In either case, it looks like both DOs and MDs added ~30 schools each since 1985. List of medical schools in the United States - Wikipedia

Cursory googling has again failed me, but chatting with you has jogged another thought: it would be nice to take a look at the # of caribbean school grads in the match over time as well. If we're finding a sustained shunting of a large number of students over there, it indicates demand over here. Then the question to ask would be: Even if DO becomes the new carribean (which I don't think it will become even with continued expansion) would a student rather be in the US or in the carribeans? Even at 60%, it would appear that students continue to migrate over in droves. And half of them were sufficiently adequate to place somewhere in the US. That suggests to me a surplus of adequate students, and therefore space for expansion. Unless we don't believe in our own rhetoric that a resident, regardless of origin, deserves comparable respect.

Theoretically its harder to expand by 200% than 30%, but realistically as you pointed out, they both had 30 new schools added, and honestly, its often easier to expand already established schools, and it could be argued that US MD schools would be able to do that much more easily (which they have done - its the only way to get the numbers, because their new schools typically have only 60-100 students in the first class compared to 150 for DO).

When it comes to expansion of both US MD and DO schools, its a positive change for medical students that would otherwise be going Carib, because it would be arguable cheaper (cost of flights, imports, food, etc. on the islands), people generally prefer staying closer to home, attrition is lower, and honestly despite what others say our clinical training is still more reliable than that of Carib grads. That said, its an issue, especially if we don't see GME expansion or a placement rate requirement.

The truth is its really hard to get exact numbers for the Carib, because for one thing outside of the Big 4+AUA, there's like 40+ other schools out there that target US and Canadian pre-meds. On top of that, you've got other schools like in Australia, Ireland, Israel, etc. that also target US pre-meds, and their enrollment also tends to vary. Its a lot of variables, but that said, one change in the Big 4 that I have noticed is that in the last 10-15 yrs they too were expanding their class sizes, but now they have been stable for the last 4-5 yrs (anecdotally).

If we're talking US IMGs in the NRMP match, here are those numbers:

US IMGs:

1985:
-Total/Active? Applicants: ~2600

2005:
-Total Applicants: 3507
-Active Applicants: 2091

2013: After NRMP all-in requirement (increased by like 80% as a result of this)
-Total Applicants: 6882
-Active Applicants: 5095

2018:
-Total Applicants: 6986
-Active Applicants: 5075

So basically, while they saw significant increases during the initial time, they have since stayed stable over the last 5 yrs, and will like remain there or decrease over time.

 

[BlueBleck]

Also regarding attrition rate, historically it has been ~8%, but some have argued its closer to 10%. They haven't released an attrition report in many years, so its hard to know for sure, especially with adding seats every year, but someone with more time could look into it and get a crude number based on matriculant and graduate numbers.

Seemed like an interesting question, and I'm procrastinating some more board studying, so I took the "Applicants by Gender 1977-2018" data from Graduates and GME which had both grad and first year enrollment, to make this:

It looks like our attrition rate has remained rather steady at 8%.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

The data is out there, you just have to dig (more so than I had to back when I started med school). Your numbers are a bit off, while you're right, US MD graduates stayed relatively stable from 1985-2005, in 2006 to the present US MD expansion had initially increased slowly, but accelerated in order for them to meet their goal of increasing US MD seats by 30% by 2016 (modest goal of 4500, which they barely missed by 500 seats, but have since surpassed). In 1985 US MD grads were`~15,000 and in 2010 they increased to 16835 (increase of ~1800), and this trend has continued with 19553 graduates in 2018 (but over 21k matriculants). Based on this, total expansion of US MD seats from 1985 to 2018 was in the realm of 4500-4600 (can't get the exact number for 1985).

As for DOs, there were 1476 graduates in 1985, and this certainly did increase, but did so only modestly initially with an increase to 2708 by 2005 (meaning while US MD schools remained stagnant, DO schools increased by ~1230 seats), but again comparing 1985 to 2010 DO grads went from 1476 to 3631 (increase of 2155, compared to a US MD increase of ~1800 in that time). If we look at 1985 to 2018, the total number of DO graduates increased from 1476 to 6416 (increase of 4940 seats). So actually, we are talking about a discrepancy of only 300-400 seats over the last 33 yrs.

For the numbers on these I used these below:
-NRMP report from 1985: https://mk0nrmpcikgb8jxyd19h.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata1985.pdf
-AAMC total graduates report: https://www.aamc.org/download/321530/data/factstableb2-1.pdf & https://www.aamc.org/download/321532/data/factstableb2-2.pdf
-AACOM total graduates report: https://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/1985-2018-gradre.xlsx?sfvrsn=45724597_106

Also regarding attrition rate, historically it has been ~8%, but some have argued its closer to 10%. They haven't released an attrition report in many years, so its hard to know for sure, especially with adding seats every year, but someone with more time could look into it and get a crude number based on matriculant and graduate numbers.



500 seats is certainly a lot, and I believe if that is the new trend (essentially adding 3 new schools every year, which first happened in 2013 - grads in 2017 - but seems to be happening more and more) that is a problem.

But its also difficult to look at any individual year. Its a gradual process. I have no idea if there are US MD schools in the pipeline, but it certainly seems like we are on track to further exceed their expansion. Again though, if you look at the time that US MDs were actively expanding (2005 to the present) we're pretty much neck and neck still in terms of absolute numbers (~4000 and matriculants ~6000). It may change in the next 4-5 yrs, but as of right now, those are the numbers.

I have posted about this before. We are clearly outstripping the MDs. See my post, and the linked post:

Allopathic Seniors + Osteopathic seniors = 18,925 + 6876 = 25,801. There were 107 more MD's than last year vs 526 new DO Seniors. (see my above post for references). Next year will see a similar gain to this year, and the 2022 class will add double the previous two. If anyone would like to have the 'DO schools aren't adding more than MD debate' again, you have lost, its over.


Source:Press Release: Thousands of Resident Physician Applicants Celebrate NRMP Match Results - The Match, National Resident Matching Program
Whoot! Whoot! Total Enrollment 28981, Number of Schools Up

 

[Stagg737]

As someone with no red flags, took both USMLE's, failed to Match and SOAP, and was incredibly lucky to land a TRI position, I'm going to have to stop you here.

I seriously thought I'd never have issues matching, but it happened to me and classmates with better boards than mine. All those spots after SOAP go to people with connections. If you go to a no name school like mine, you have no way to get into these programs. I couldn't even get a surgical prelim to look at me. There's too many students and not enough spots, DO is gonna be the new carribbean.

As someone who has looked at the actual data, I'm going to have to stop you there too. If you want to look at total applicants compared to total positions, then yes there's a problem. If you look at the data for the past 4-5 years though there have been >100 positions unfilled AFTER the SOAP in the ACGME. Also, the bold and underlined very likely played a role for you if you were only looking into surgical fields. If someone applies to their chosen field but also applies to several FM or low-tier IM programs, they should still be able to match or SOAP into a program. I understand where your thought process is coming from, but keep in mind that it seems like you're shooting for a specific goal which is different from the statement of mine that you responded to about being able to become a physician (in any field at any location).

So as I said before, if all that matters is becoming a physician then almost everyone who isn't a terrible applicant should still be able to match somewhere if they apply properly. There are no guarantees for certain fields or locations, but that's a separate argument.

If youre talking about Carrib here then thats just completely false

Not completely false. There are some programs that heavily favor IMGs over DOs. From what I've seen these are largely in the NYC region where there are a high volume of IMG rotation sites and a relatively low volume of DOs. There's other places this is true too (one of the programs in my city is somewhat like this, as they have a core rotation site for St. George and specifically give preference to their students who do well), but NYC is the primary locus of this from what I've seen.

I have no idea if there are US MD schools in the pipeline, but it certainly seems like we are on track to further exceed their expansion

Per Wikipedia there are 13 USMD schools currently "in development" (one in the Virgin Islands) and 12 DO schools. The difference seems to be that most of the DO schools are farther along and several are green-lighted to open while the USMD schools are in earlier stages. Some of the upcoming MD schools include Kaiser Permanente, University of Alaska, NOVA Southeastern allopathic, LSU-Lafayette, Syracuse, NYU-Long Island (first class being filled now), and University of Houston. So significant expansion on both sides (though my guess is the trend of MD schools having classes of ~100 or less and DO schools being >150 will likely continue).

 

[fldoctorgirl]

NOVA Southeastern allopathic

They started this year (2018) with their first class.

 

[Deecee2DO]

As someone who has looked at the actual data, I'm going to have to stop you there too. If you want to look at total applicants compared to total positions, then yes there's a problem. If you look at the data for the past 4-5 years though there have been >100 positions unfilled AFTER the SOAP in the ACGME. Also, the bold and underlined very likely played a role for you if you were only looking into surgical fields. If someone applies to their chosen field but also applies to several FM or low-tier IM programs, they should still be able to match or SOAP into a program. I understand where your thought process is coming from, but keep in mind that it seems like you're shooting for a specific goal which is different from the statement of mine that you responded to about being able to become a physician (in any field at any location).

So as I said before, if all that matters is becoming a physician then almost everyone who isn't a terrible applicant should still be able to match somewhere if they apply properly. There are no guarantees for certain fields or locations, but that's a separate argument.



Not completely false. There are some programs that heavily favor IMGs over DOs. From what I've seen these are largely in the NYC region where there are a high volume of IMG rotation sites and a relatively low volume of DOs. There's other places this is true too (one of the programs in my city is somewhat like this, as they have a core rotation site for St. George and specifically give preference to their students who do well), but NYC is the primary locus of this from what I've seen.



Per Wikipedia there are 13 USMD schools currently "in development" (one in the Virgin Islands) and 12 DO schools. The difference seems to be that most of the DO schools are farther along and several are green-lighted to open while the USMD schools are in earlier stages. Some of the upcoming MD schools include Kaiser Permanente, University of Alaska, NOVA Southeastern allopathic, LSU-Lafayette, Syracuse, NYU-Long Island (first class being filled now), and University of Houston. So significant expansion on both sides (though my guess is the trend of MD schools having classes of ~100 or less and DO schools being >150 will likely continue).

In response to mine regarding St Georges are you referring to Sinai because they matched some people there in IM this past year

 

[Stagg737]

In response to mine regarding St Georges are you referring to Sinai because they matched some people there in IM this past year

Nope, different site outside of the NY area. Generally speaking my region is FAR more DO friendly than IMG. This program just has a lot of IMG residents because they're a core rotation site for St. George.

 

[hallowmann]

Figured I'd update this

DO Match Rate 2019

A few things: -Here are the 2016-2018 threads for reference - DO match rate 2016, DO match rate 2017, DO match rate 2018 -These numbers are all based on published reports. Reports sometimes have errors. Either way, hopefully this is useful. -This says nothing about the type of GME attained. Some...

forums.studentdoctor.net

2019 wasn't too bad all for DOs

FWIW:

Total Applications: 44,603

USMD: 18,925 (+107)
Previous USMD Grads: 1485 (-26)
DO: 6001 (+1,384 --> 29.9% increase)
Canadian: 15 (+2)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 1 (-1)
IMG (US citizen): 5080 (+5)
IMG (non-US citizen): 6869 (-198)

Matched: 30,550 (79.6%)

USMD: 93.9% ( -0.4%)
Previous MD Grads: 45.4% (+1.6%)
DO: 84.6% (+2.9%)
Canadian: 80% (+41.5%)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 0% (no change)
IMG (US Citizen): 59% (+1.9%)
IMG (non-US Citizen): 58.6% (+2.5%)

Unmatched: 7,826 (20.4%)

USMD: 1,162 (+84)
Previous MD Grads: 811 (-38)
DO: 925 (+79)
Canadian: 3 (-5)
Fifth Pathway Programs: 1 (no change)
IMG (US Citizen): 2083 (-92)
IMG (non-US Citizen): 2,841 (-264)

Summary:

USMD: No significant change.**
Previous MD Grad: No significant change.**
Canadian: Good year for them I suppose; small applicant pool, eh?
DO: Despite a 29.9% increase in total applicants, there was still a 2.9% increase in match rate.
Fifth Pathway Programs: wtf.
IMG (US Citizen): No dramatic change in applicant number (-5); increased match rate (+1.5%)
IMG (non-US Citizen): Decreased applicant pool (198); increased match rate (+2.5%; -264 un-matched); pretty significant** actually; honestly a pretty good improvement for this group. Overall match rate is still garbage tho (58.6%.)

** = IMO; didn't do any mathz for this.

Source (table 4): https://mk0nrmpcikgb8jxyd19h.kinsta...oads/2019/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2019_WWW.pdf