AAMC Annual Statistics

[KnightDoc]

In case anyone is interested, I just noticed that AAMC has published its latest treasure trove of statistical tables.

The highlight for me, from Table A-1, is that applications for the class that just entered rose to 62,432 unique applicants submitting an average of 18 applications each, up from 53,030 applicants submitting an average of 17 applications each the previous cycle. This means the national matriculation rate dropped to 22,665/62,432 = 36.3%.

Any drop in the number of applicants this year, as is being speculated about in another thread, will be very welcome relief for us.

Anyone interested should just Google AAMC 2021 Facts for links to all of their tables.

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[deleted1027026]

In case anyone is interested, I just noticed that AAMC has published its latest treasure trove of statistical tables.

The highlight for me, from Table A-1, is that applications for the class that just entered rose to 62,432 unique applicants submitting an average of 18 applications each, up from 53,030 applicants submitting an average of 17 applications each the previous cycle. This means the national matriculation rate dropped to 22,665/62,432 = 36.3%.

Any drop in the number of applicants this year, as is being speculated about in another thread, will be very welcome relief for us.

Anyone interested should just Google AAMC 2021 Facts for links to all of their tables.

Why is there expected to be a drop in applicants for 2022?

 

[KnightDoc]

Why is there expected to be a drop in applicants for 2022?

Not so much expected, but a poster has observed that several schools have reported a drop compared to what they were showing at this time last year, which is a surprise to some because the early reports were that applications were up again this year.

 

[candbgirl]

Not so much expected, but a poster has observed that several schools have reported a drop compared to what they were showing at this time last year, which is a surprise to some because the early reports were that applications were up again this year.

I was surprised by that post. I really can’t imagine the schools would even release that information this early. It will be interesting to see if this plays out like it was predicted in that thread.

 

[KnightDoc]

I was surprised by that post. I really can’t imagine the schools would even release that information this early. It will be interesting to see if this plays out like it was predicted in that thread.

I was surprised as well. Not by the existence of the information, since some schools, like Vanderbilt and Michigan, are known for transparently sharing information via their websites throughout the cycle, but by the fact that the numbers are actually down. I was relying on the earlier information shared by @gonnif, and, quitely frankly, didn't even consider the possibility that it wouldn't hold through the duration of the cycle.

Ultimately, just a little drop in the bucket for us as applicants. It's still going to be more competitive than 2 years ago, but at least it will be a little better than last year. Especially for first time applicants, which accounted for almost all of the surge last year, meaning that reapplicants are probably going to be up a lot this year while first time applicants will likely be down more than the headline number will indicate.

 

[KnightDoc]

Lets start a pool. I expect total number of applicants this cycle (matriculation 2022) will be between 66,500-67,000.

Absolutely!! Based on the other thread, I think it's going to dip below 60,000.

What will I win if I am right? A free session with you for my reapplication cycle? 😎

 

[TheGranolaKing]

Absolutely!! Based on the other thread, I think it's going to dip below 60,000.

What will I win if I am right? A free session with you for my reapplication cycle? 😎

TMDSAS shares application numbers each month on the TXHES website and it appears that, at least in Texas, submitted applications are closer to 2020 numbers than 2021 numbers so I think right around 57k is my guess. That being said, Texas certainly does its own thing in many ways so who knows how our numbers scale to AMCAS ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Applications by the Numbers - October 2021

Take a look at how Entry Year 2022 compares to other application cycles. All numbers below represent applications started and submitted as of October 1, 2021 and on the same date for each application cycle represented.

www.txhes.com

edit: changed a bit of the wording

 

[KnightDoc]

TMDSAS shares application numbers each month on the TXHES website and it appears that, at least in Texas, submitted applications are closer to 2020 numbers than 2021 numbers so I think right around 57k is my guess. That being said, Texas certainly does its own thing in many ways so who knows how our numbers scale to AMCAS ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Applications by the Numbers - October 2021

Take a look at how Entry Year 2022 compares to other application cycles. All numbers below represent applications started and submitted as of October 1, 2021 and on the same date for each application cycle represented.

www.txhes.com

edit: changed a bit of the wording

Nice catch! 🙂 The total is skewed by a big spike in vet applications. Medical is actually down quite a bit from last year.

 

[DoctorFate]

Nice catch! 🙂 The total is skewed by a big spike in vet applications. Medical is actually down quite a bit from last year.

Plus, Baylor joining TMDSAS might make the numbers even more inflated. I have a few friends that applied via TMDSAS solely to apply to Baylor. I almost did the same. Idk how big the change is, but it definitely has some, at least small, impact.

 

[MyOdyssey]

Plus, Baylor joining TMDSAS might make the numbers even more inflated. I have a few friends that applied via TMDSAS solely to apply to Baylor. I almost did the same. Idk how big the change is, but it definitely has some, at least small, impact.

Does Baylor joining the TMDSAS signal an increased commitment to IS candidates going forward?

 

[KnightDoc]

Does Baylor joining the TMDSAS signal an increased commitment to IS candidates going forward?

Absolutely. That was covered in an announcement they made ahead of the move. Why else would they make it easier for IS AND more difficult for OOS at the same time? 😀

Just compare last year's UTSW numbers to Baylor's to get an idea of what the impact is going to be going forward.

 

[MyOdyssey]

Absolutely. That was covered in an announcement they made ahead of the move. Why else would they make it easier for IS AND more difficult for OOS at the same time? 😀

Just compare last year's UTSW numbers to Baylor's to get an idea of what the impact is going to be going forward.

Interesting. UT/San Antonio seems to be seizing the high stats/research brass ring in TX. Its MCAT avg of 517 is substantially higher than its historical numbers. This implies an increased emphasis on admitting high stats candidates of all stripes - both OOS and IS.

I predict Baylor's national standing will take a hit as it turns away from OOS students in its admissions process.

 

[KnightDoc]

Interesting. UT/San Antonio seems to be seizing the high stats/research brass ring in TX. Its MCAT avg of 517 is substantially higher than its historical numbers. This implies an increased emphasis on admitting high stats candidates of all stripes - both OOS and IS.

I predict Baylor's national standing will take a hit as it turns away from OOS students in its admissions process.

I don't see that happening. OOS is already a small part of the class. It's just going to get a little smaller. Highly motivated people who really want to be in TX will find them, and they are still not subject to the 90% IS requirement that the public schools are.

Those that only applied because it was a T20ish school with super low state subsidized tuition who don't want to bother with a TMDSAS application will move on. Which is probably the idea.

Their national ranking now is similar to UTSW. That's not going to change.

 

[DoctorFate]

Absolutely. That was covered in an announcement they made ahead of the move. Why else would they make it easier for IS AND more difficult for OOS at the same time? 😀

Just compare last year's UTSW numbers to Baylor's to get an idea of what the impact is going to be going forward.

Did utsw only join tmdsas last year.

On a side note, does anyone know how tmdsas originated? Why does only Texas have its own system?

 

[DoctorFate]

Interesting. UT/San Antonio seems to be seizing the high stats/research brass ring in TX. Its MCAT avg of 517 is substantially higher than its historical numbers. This implies an increased emphasis on admitting high stats candidates of all stripes - both OOS and IS.

I predict Baylor's national standing will take a hit as it turns away from OOS students in its admissions process.

UWash shows that even schools thats recruiting from very small subsets of America can still have very high rankings.

 

[KnightDoc]

Did utsw only join tmdsas last year.

On a side note, does anyone know how tmdsas originated? Why does only Texas have its own system?

Nope. All TX schools other than Baylor were always in it.

As to how and why, I'm sure @wysdoc is much more qualified than I am to answer. I'd guess the answer is similar to why they don't have a power grid that's connected to the rest of the country.

They are large enough to have the critical mass necessary to make it work (100 year ice storms notwithstanding). They have a reputation for fierce independence and like to do things their own way. They actually want their schools to primarily benefit their residents, so making harder for OOS to apply is a feature rather than a bug.

Finally, you have to admit that their match system works pretty well, so, why not?

Clearly, the rest of the country enjoys the uniformity and convenience of a single unified system that they can tweak to their liking.

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

but it covers a very large territory, therefore it got a lot of fundings from the NIH. Essentially the only med school in the Northwest region.

UWash shows that even schools thats recruiting from very small subsets of America can still have very high rankings.

 

[DoctorFate]

but it covers a very large territory, therefore it got a lot of fundings from the NIH. Essentially the only med school in the Northwest region.

True, a lot land wise, but in terms of population, only Washington is of note. The remaining 4 states barely have people haha. Maybe doesn't matter for usnwr rankings tho

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

True, a lot land wise, but in terms of population, only Washington is of note. The remaining 4 states barely have people haha. Maybe doesn't matter for usnwr rankings tho

very selective for OOS people. Snatching a secondary as an OOS is like winning a lottery there.