About the "magic' formula...GPA*10+MCAT...issues and questions:

[LizzyM]

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According to this data it's about 2 standard deviations when looking at matriculants.

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007mcatgpa.htm


I'm sure that's a difference one could make up for with a night or two of studying...


I'm just kidding, but I do agree that there is a lot more that can be done with an MCAT score than a GPA in the same amount of time if you already have a number of classes under your belt, albeit not without a lot of work.

Please quit while you're ahead, your ignorance of biostatistics is showing... none the less, for someone who has already completed 90 credits or more it is far quicker to improve the MCAT than to boost the gpa.

 

[0Complications]

Please quit while you're ahead, your ignorance of biostatistics is showing... none the less, for someone who has already completed 90 credits or more it is far quicker to improve the MCAT than to boost the gpa.

Wow. If you don't like my statistics then please show me how you believe I'm incorrect. I'm not above saying that I'm wrong, but it sure would make it a lot easier if you were to show me how I'm wrong on this one. The standard deviations are ~2 pts, so it's suffice to say that a 4 point difference is ~2 standard deviations. Also, AAMC states that scores are set with the mean at ~8 in each section and a standard deviation of ~2.

Now as far as reiterating what I said in my previous post, that's exactly what you did in reference to the MCAT. So, maybe you think my stats are terrible (which until you show me why I'm going to beg to disagree), but at least it appears that you agree with my logic.

 

[LizzyM]

OComplications, have you studied statstics. Do you understand the concept of the bell curve?

If the variable has a normal distribution (bell curve) and mean is 8 and the standard deviation is 2 this means that 67% of those who take the test score between 6 and 10 (8 +/- 2). Also, half of that group(33.5%) score between 8 and 10 (within one standard deviation above the mean) and 33.5% score between 6 and 8 (within one standard deviation below the mean). In a normal distribution, 95% score within 2 standard deviations of the mean and these two are equially divided between those above and those below the mean. Furthermore, 2.5% score more than 2 standard deviations above the mean and 2.5% score score more than 2 standard deviations below the mean.

So, in this case, 14% score between 11 and 12, 14% score between 4 and 5, 2.5% score 13 or more and 2.5% score 3 or less.

Now, in general, we do not sum means and sum standard deviations. The standard deviation for the sum of the three MCAT sections is not necesarily 6because the test is normed to have each subscore have a standard deviation of 2.

within 2 standard deviations above the mean lies 47.5% of the population. Going from an 11 or 12 in each section to a 12 or 13 in each section (1 point increase in each section) is a jump of about 6-7 percentage points, not 47.5 percentage points as would be represented by 2 standard deviations. Tip of the hat to amwatts for explaining this earlier.

 

[0Complications]

OComplications, have you studied statstics. Do you understand the concept of the bell curve?

If the variable has a normal distribution (bell curve) and mean is 8 and the standard deviation is 2 this means that 67% of those who take the test score between 6 and 10 (8 +/- 2). Also, half of that group(33.5%) score between 8 and 10 (within one standard deviation above the mean) and 33.5% score between 6 and 8 (within one standard deviation below the mean). In a normal distribution, 95% score within 2 standard deviations of the mean and these two are equially divided between those above and those below the mean. Furthermore, 2.5% score more than 2 standard deviations above the mean and 2.5% score score more than 2 standard deviations below the mean.

So, in this case, 14% score between 11 and 12, 14% score between 4 and 5, 2.5% score 13 or more and 2.5% score 3 or less.

Now, in general, we do not sum means and sum standard deviations. The standard deviation for the sum of the three MCAT sections is not necesarily 6because the test is normed to have each subscore have a standard deviation of 2.

within 2 standard deviations above the mean lies 47.5% of the population. Going from an 11 or 12 in each section to a 12 or 13 in each section (1 point increase in each section) is a jump of about 6-7 percentage points, not 47.5 percentage points as would be represented by 2 standard deviations. Tip of the hat to amwatts for explaining this earlier.

I see what you're saying. Unless I knew the individual scored a 4 point increase in a single section then just giving the difference from a 34 to a 38 wouldn't necessarily indicate the standard deviation is still held constant at 2 when looking at all the sections factored together, unless I knew what the standard deviation was for the entire exam. Thanks for explaining that.

 

[MossPoh]

I am thinking these 3.8 and 34+ are somewhat unrealistic. I don't believe there is a true magic formula. In my case, I am aiming for a high mcat to negate the crappy years where I had no goals. (I only have a 3.3 cum gpa...as a white male from a "rural area" but hey...I got a 30 on my practice today with 3 months to go) When comparing in the 3.5 and 30 range then the formula may be a bit more accurate. Either way, if you are invited for an interview then they think you are academically ok and want to see if your personality is what they want. Don't take too much stock in the formula. Just do the best you can, apply, and be a genuine/good person during the interview. If I could relive my past and actually try then I would...I was too busy tanking courses and trying to commit suicide freshman year and sophomore year I discovered alcohol. I've learned from adversity, but on paper it does not make me look too impressive.

 

[LizzyM]

I am thinking these 3.8 and 34+ are somewhat unrealistic. I don't believe there is a true magic formula. In my case, I am aiming for a high mcat to negate the crappy years where I had no goals. (I only have a 3.3 cum gpa...as a white male from a "rural area" but hey...I got a 30 on my practice today with 3 months to go) When comparing in the 3.5 and 30 range then the formula may be a bit more accurate. Either way, if you are invited for an interview then they think you are academically ok and want to see if your personality is what they want. Don't take too much stock in the formula. Just do the best you can, apply, and be a genuine/good person during the interview. If I could relive my past and actually try then I would...I was too busy tanking courses and trying to commit suicide freshman year and sophomore year I discovered alcohol. I've learned from adversity, but on paper it does not make me look too impressive.

The formula combines your gpa and MCAT, the two quick and dirty measures of your academic acumen, and gives you an idea of how you compare to the average matriculant at a particular school. So, for example, Albany Medical College has a average gpa of 3.6 and average MCAT of about 30 for a Lizzy score of 66 (I'd subtract 1 and say you are average for that school if your score is 65 or more). Cornell's Lizzy score is 72.2. Obviously, if your Lizzy score is 63 you should choose schools that are at the lower end, score wise, than applying to Hopkins and Washington U and hoping that they see your sparking personality during the interview. The sad fact is that you are highly unlikely to get to the interview if the school doesn't get beyond your far below average (for them) scores and gpa. This process is going to cost you several thousand dollars. What I'm trying to do is to increase the odds that the effort and expense will not be for naught.

 

[Vihsadas]

I see what you're saying. Unless I knew the individual scored a 4 point increase in a single section then just giving the difference from a 34 to a 38 wouldn't necessarily indicate the standard deviation is still held constant at 2 when looking at all the sections factored together, unless I knew what the standard deviation was for the entire exam. Thanks for explaining that.

I won't rehash the discussion of the gaussian distribution that LizzyM illustrated, but I'll expand on the implications of each section being individually curved and normed:

This is why a balanced score is almost always better. For instance, an MCAT score of 40 is more powerful if it is 14 14 12 or 14 13 13. This is because when considering scores of '40' in terms of percentiles, 15 15 10 is statistically the weakest; he only scored in the 95th percentile on two tests, while the third test is much lower (something like 85th percentile). The person who scored 14 13 13 was in the 95th percentile or higher on every test.

More simply, the percentile difference between a 10 and an 11 is far bigger and therefore much more meaningful than the difference between scaled scores of 13 or higher. This is why I tell MCAT takers that they should be aiming for 13s on every section. After that point the test is so marginal in terms of the difference between a 13 and a 14 that it becomes an effort of diminishing returns.

In reality, a score of about 36 or 37 (depending on the individual section scores) is pretty darned close in terms of percentile points to any score higher than that. This is why when I started studying for the MCAT I decided that if I didn't get a 37 or higher I was going to retake it.

 

[Mandek]

I won't rehash the discussion of the gaussian distribution that LizzyM illustrated, but I'll expand on the implications of each section being individually curved and normed:

This is why a balanced score is almost always better. For instance, an MCAT score of 40 is more powerful if it is 14 14 12 or 14 13 13. This is because when considering scores of '40' in terms of percentiles, 15 15 10 is statistically the weakest; he only scored in the 95th percentile on two tests, while the third test is much lower (something like 85th percentile). The person who scored 14 13 13 was in the 95th percentile or higher on every test.

More simply, the percentile difference between a 10 and an 11 is far bigger and therefore much more meaningful than the difference between scaled scores of 13 or higher. This is why I tell MCAT takers that they should be aiming for 13s on every section. After that point the test is so marginal in terms of the difference between a 13 and a 14 that it becomes an effort of diminishing returns.

In reality, a score of about 36 or 37 (depending on the individual section scores) is pretty darned close in terms of percentile points to any score higher than that. This is why when I started studying for the MCAT I decided that if I didn't get a 37 or higher I was going to retake it.

A 13 on a each section is around ~95th percentile?

 

[Vihsadas]

A 13 on a each section is around ~95th percentile?

Yup, but it depends on the section. Verbal seems to always have a really high curve. I think that a 13 is 98th percentile in verbal. In PS and BS it's around 94-98th.

 

[Mandek]

Yup, but it depends on the section. Verbal seems to always have a really high curve. I think that a 13 is 98th percentile in verbal. In PS and BS it's around 94-98th.

I like your approach and view on aiming for a 13 on each section. The way you described makes sense. A 40 doesnt necessarily mean the tester was in 95th percentile all across the board (although, most likely he/she is).

 

[Mandek]

From your experience, do you think a 13 on a section (atleast for BS and PS) and a 11+ on VR is doable for most people if they put in the work/effort/time/practice into preparing for the MCAT?

 

[Vihsadas]

From your experience, do you think a 13 on a section (atleast for BS and PS) and a 11+ on VR is doable for most people if they put in the work/effort/time/practice into preparing for the MCAT?

The 11 on VR is definitely doable. The 13 on each section I believe is also doable. However, when studying you must always remember that the test is curved and normed. So, no matter how well you do, if 5% of people did better, you won't be getting a 13. With that in mind, I'd say that generally there are enough people who will not put their entire mind and soul to reaching this goal, that if you work as hard as you can, and you are smart about how you are studying a 12 or 13 is attainable.

 

[Myuu]

From your experience, do you think a 13 on a section (atleast for BS and PS) and a 11+ on VR is doable for most people if they put in the work/effort/time/practice into preparing for the MCAT?

It was doable for me. Whether the adcoms like that and the rest of my application remains to be seen.😳

 

[dienekes88]

Tartheheel, the "Score" seems like a pretty good heuristic for determining how competitive you are. I get the feeling that the "Score" is the easiest way to keep the Adcoms interested (naturally there are other ways, e.g. curing cancer, winning Olympic gold, etc.). It'll make sure certain doors are still open, i.e. the adcoms won't just chuck your file after the half-second required for them to put the "score" together themselves. However, it's the rest of your file that will get you the interview. For that reason, you can't forget about the other factors that you can control... e.g. applying early in the cycle, making sure you have good ECs/volunteer experiences, etc.

Sorry I'm using myself as an example (I swear I'm not that egotistical), but I know very little about other candidates... Like Valacious, my "Score" (74.4-75.0, is this BCPM or overall GPA?) should have made me competitive at every school. However, I left my apps a little later than ideal, because I was finishing classes (I was hit by a car, had to take a light course load my senior year, and didn't finish classes 'til August). I also spent way too much time racing Ironman triathlons. Apparently, triathlon is unrelated to medicine... 🙂 It's just about the end of interview season, and I got a grand total of 6 interviews for 22 apps.

Keep the "score" in mind when you're selecting schools for your application, but don't marry yourself to it.

Mandek, I'm sure you've heard this a hundred times about the MCAT: study your butt off, familiarize yourself with the question types, and take a few practice exams. If there's anything in the review book you don't recognize, make sure to hit up a textbook for the depth you need to understand the topic. Anything's doable.