Gavin,
I agree with you. However, there are several factors that have to be considered here. Every school knows that there is a good chance that not all of the people accepted will pay the deposit to reserve their seat. For this reason, schools wil interview and at a interval decide which individuals to accept, hold, and reject. After Dec. 1 they will send out the first batches of acceptances and see how many people reply with their deposit, then they will readjust their plans and send out more or less acceptances. It is a very bewildering project and every year is different, but there are schools that do have astronomical acceptance rates after interview, UOP, NYU, Tufts..etc. Yes, a school is in big trouble if they have room for 125 people and they accept 200 and all 200 accept, but that is a risk many schools are willing to take. Sending out an acceptance for only enough seats is foolish, since if only half of those reply then the school will waste time and risking not filling enough seats. My friend who denied NYU at first, got a $80,000 scholarship after rejecting NYU's acceptance offer, schools do come out shorthanded and have to desperately try to recruit more and more people to be certain to fill their seats. Very confusing process indeed.
All I can guarantee about this cycle is two things:
1.) Have faith in God
2.) Apply early
And hopefully you don't have to think about how many people get accepted since you will be one of those. ;-)
DesiDentist