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There's a lot of misinformation on this topic on SDN. Most of it originates from a handful of biased, untruthful individuals who consistently pass on nonsensical personal opinion as fact. This drivel then gets propagated and gradually becomes accepted as true, even though it has no basis in reality. One of these bull****ters loves to say in a derogatory way, "cue Argus saying 'but, but, NRMP...'" because he must actually think it's a bad thing to back up assertions with, you know, data. Anyway, I've posted this info in many different threads, but figured I would put it in a single place.
And as always, this is not meant to try and convince people to go to the Caribbean. People should exhaust all options of going USMD/DO (i.e. multiple admissions cycles) before thinking about going to the Caribbean. I do this because once you are at that point, I think you should have the data to make an informed decision.
http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2011-14-matprofilereport.pdf?sfvrsn=4
https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/factstable17.pdf
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2015_final.pdf
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...tional-Medical-Graduates-Revised.PDF-File.pdf
US-IMG match rates
People like to say the match rate for US-IMGs is 53%, because that's what is listed in the NRMP reports. This number does not refer to first-time match rate (i.e. recent graduates applying to residency for the first time), which is what people are commonly referring to when saying "match rate." This is exemplified by the fact that the NRMP data reports actually breaks up US allopathic applicants into US seniors vs. US grad.
If you look at the ECFMG report from 2013, you will see that the average time since graduation for the unmatched cohort of US-IMGs is 5.7 years.
When quoting that 53% you are not actually describing US-IMGs in the match for the first time, you are describing all US-IMGs in the match regardless of how many times they have applied. The NRMP data reports don't differentiate US-IMG senior vs US-IMG grad. There is without a doubt a percentage (~10%) of US-IMGs that manage to graduate from school, but are poor applicants (semester failures, step failures, etc) and are not able to ever match. This small yearly cohort continues to apply every year, builds up over time (hence the 5.7 years above), and drastically skews the US-IMG "match rate".
If you want to include those reapplicants when describing true US-IMG "match rates", then you also have to include all the applicants from those previous years that did successfully match. If you don't do this (like the NRMP data reports), you are way oversampling the poor applicant/unmatched cohort. The NRMP does actually recognize this because they split US allopathic applicants into those 2 groups, they just don't do it for IMGs for some reason.
People try to say the US MD vs US-IMG match rates are 94% vs 53%, which is in fact comparing 2 completely different data sets. The yearly match rates for NRMP defined US grads (i.e. non-matched applicants from previous years) are actually 40-50%, showing that poor applicants, regardless of where they come from, do not do very well in the match.
The first-time match rate for all US-IMGs is ~75%, and from the big 3 caribbean medical schools is between 80-90%. Granted this does not take into account students lost to attrition before graduation, which is no doubt substantial.
But when people say caribbean grads have a ~50% chance of matching, they are grossly misinterpreting the data.
Future US-IMG match prospects
The bull****ters love to say that by 2020 there will be no more spots for IMGs in the match because of new USMD/DO schools opening, existing school expansion, and the coming residency merger. The only problem with this is that there is absolutely no data to support this.
~6,300 IMGs matched through the NRMP in 2015. The 2011 1st year matriculation numbers were USMD 19,230 and DO 5,363. That's a grand total of 24,593 AMGs who potentially applied for the match in 2015, and 6,300 IMGs matched.
The 2014 first year AMG matriculant numbers are USMD 20,343 and DO 6,465, for a grand total of 26,808. Thats an increase of 2,215 from 2011 to 2014 over 4 years.
The average yearly increase in PGY1 positions through the NRMP is ~500 (not counting 2012 to 2013 and the institution of the all-in policy). So over 4 years, we can expect ~2,000 new positions to be created in the NRMP.
Additional schools opening increase AMG enrollment by hundreds, not thousands. Pre-existing schools are not increasing their class sizes that dramatically, adding only a couple hundred positions a year total. These increases basically just offset the yearly increase in PGY1 positions.
So if you actually look at the data, you will see that AMG enrollment is actually increasing at approximately the same rate as the yearly increase in PGY1 positions through the NRMP. In 2018, ~6,000 IMGs will match, just like they did this year. Additional AMG expansion in 2015/2016 is not going to be anywhere near an amount that will significantly change the number of IMGs that match in 2020.
And as always, this is not meant to try and convince people to go to the Caribbean. People should exhaust all options of going USMD/DO (i.e. multiple admissions cycles) before thinking about going to the Caribbean. I do this because once you are at that point, I think you should have the data to make an informed decision.
http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2011-14-matprofilereport.pdf?sfvrsn=4
https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/factstable17.pdf
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2015_final.pdf
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...tional-Medical-Graduates-Revised.PDF-File.pdf
US-IMG match rates
People like to say the match rate for US-IMGs is 53%, because that's what is listed in the NRMP reports. This number does not refer to first-time match rate (i.e. recent graduates applying to residency for the first time), which is what people are commonly referring to when saying "match rate." This is exemplified by the fact that the NRMP data reports actually breaks up US allopathic applicants into US seniors vs. US grad.
If you look at the ECFMG report from 2013, you will see that the average time since graduation for the unmatched cohort of US-IMGs is 5.7 years.
When quoting that 53% you are not actually describing US-IMGs in the match for the first time, you are describing all US-IMGs in the match regardless of how many times they have applied. The NRMP data reports don't differentiate US-IMG senior vs US-IMG grad. There is without a doubt a percentage (~10%) of US-IMGs that manage to graduate from school, but are poor applicants (semester failures, step failures, etc) and are not able to ever match. This small yearly cohort continues to apply every year, builds up over time (hence the 5.7 years above), and drastically skews the US-IMG "match rate".
If you want to include those reapplicants when describing true US-IMG "match rates", then you also have to include all the applicants from those previous years that did successfully match. If you don't do this (like the NRMP data reports), you are way oversampling the poor applicant/unmatched cohort. The NRMP does actually recognize this because they split US allopathic applicants into those 2 groups, they just don't do it for IMGs for some reason.
People try to say the US MD vs US-IMG match rates are 94% vs 53%, which is in fact comparing 2 completely different data sets. The yearly match rates for NRMP defined US grads (i.e. non-matched applicants from previous years) are actually 40-50%, showing that poor applicants, regardless of where they come from, do not do very well in the match.
The first-time match rate for all US-IMGs is ~75%, and from the big 3 caribbean medical schools is between 80-90%. Granted this does not take into account students lost to attrition before graduation, which is no doubt substantial.
But when people say caribbean grads have a ~50% chance of matching, they are grossly misinterpreting the data.
Future US-IMG match prospects
The bull****ters love to say that by 2020 there will be no more spots for IMGs in the match because of new USMD/DO schools opening, existing school expansion, and the coming residency merger. The only problem with this is that there is absolutely no data to support this.
~6,300 IMGs matched through the NRMP in 2015. The 2011 1st year matriculation numbers were USMD 19,230 and DO 5,363. That's a grand total of 24,593 AMGs who potentially applied for the match in 2015, and 6,300 IMGs matched.
The 2014 first year AMG matriculant numbers are USMD 20,343 and DO 6,465, for a grand total of 26,808. Thats an increase of 2,215 from 2011 to 2014 over 4 years.
The average yearly increase in PGY1 positions through the NRMP is ~500 (not counting 2012 to 2013 and the institution of the all-in policy). So over 4 years, we can expect ~2,000 new positions to be created in the NRMP.
Additional schools opening increase AMG enrollment by hundreds, not thousands. Pre-existing schools are not increasing their class sizes that dramatically, adding only a couple hundred positions a year total. These increases basically just offset the yearly increase in PGY1 positions.
So if you actually look at the data, you will see that AMG enrollment is actually increasing at approximately the same rate as the yearly increase in PGY1 positions through the NRMP. In 2018, ~6,000 IMGs will match, just like they did this year. Additional AMG expansion in 2015/2016 is not going to be anywhere near an amount that will significantly change the number of IMGs that match in 2020.