AdComs of SDN, I read that schools give more acceptances than they can matriculate? How does this really work?

[ayjaystudent]

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Let's say there's 100 seats, do schools initially offer 100 acceptances and each time a candidate turns it down, the schools just then offer an acceptance to the next applicant on their waitlist?

OR, does the school just offer 200 acceptances initially with the expectation half would turn them down and meet the goal of 100?

EDIT: for clarity.

 

[gyngyn]

Schools calculate the number needed to fill, offer a bit less than that and back-fill with the waitlist.

 

[LizzyM]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

 

[ayjaystudent]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 2500 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

Thank you for the awesome explanation!

 

[TwoHighways]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 2500 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

Fascinating insight. This seems to be how all the TMDSAS schools operate. Man, it would really be tough to get an acceptance, but have to wait another year before starting.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

Fascinating insight. This seems to be how all the TMDSAS schools operate. Man, it would really be tough to get an acceptance, but have to wait another year before starting.

I know someone in that spot right now. I feel so bad for him, but the only bright side is that he knows he will be going to his top choice.

 

[electropartyogram]

Fascinating insight. This seems to be how all the TMDSAS schools operate. Man, it would really be tough to get an acceptance, but have to wait another year before starting.

I would think it would happen less for TMDSAS because of the match system? Being matched in early February also gives a lot more time for applicants to accept or move on if going OOS/non-TMDSAS. I've seen from previous threads there is decent WL movement earlier for TMDSAS schools.

 

[TwoHighways]

I would think it would happen less for TMDSAS because of the match system? Being matched in early February also gives a lot more time for applicants to accept or move on if going OOS/non-TMDSAS. I've seen from previous threads there is decent WL movement earlier for TMDSAS schools.

I just meant accepting more than you actually can seat. Match does sort a lot of it out.

 

[Engrailed]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

This was so thorough, and also fun to read.
Did not realize that enrollment time is THAT stressful of a time for deans.

#TUMS xD

 

[cyanotoxin]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

As stressful as this process is for applicants, it frankly makes me a little happy that it's also stressful on the other side.

 

[deleted688779]

This was so thorough, and also fun to read.
Did not realize that enrollment time is THAT stressful of a time for deans.

#TUMS xD

For some reason I don't feel sorry. Hmmmmmm 🤔

 

[TwoHighways]

I can’t imagine the life of someone on an adcom being any easier than a premed’s, particularly when it comes down having to make the tough choices of who to invite for an interview and who to offer an acceptance to. There are great people that have to be turned away each and every year, differences of opinions on particular applicants that have to be resolved, stories of hardship that make you want to give a spot to badly, but can’t based on any number of objective or subjective criteria.

 

[ayjaystudent]

As stressful as this process is for applicants, it frankly makes me a little happy that it's also stressful on the other side.

Though, applicant's don't get paid throughout this stressful process and most get into debt. On the other hand, the other side gets paid and compensated.

Nonetheless, stress is stress. I just wish no one would get in debt.

 

[Goro]

Let's say there's 100 seats, do schools initially offer 100 acceptances and each time a candidate turns it down, the schools just then offer an acceptance to the next applicant on their waitlist?

OR, does the school just offer 200 acceptances initially with the expectation half would turn them down and meet the goal of 100?

EDIT: for clarity.

It's much like airline overbooking. How my wily old Admissions Dean actually manages to pull this off year after year without overbooking is one of the Dark Arts.

At my school, we get some 5000 apps
Interview ~500
Accept ~350
Seat ~100

 

[RedTurpentine]

Out of curiosity, has there been any success using statistical models to predict candidates' likelihood of accepting offers? There seems to be so much juicy primary app info that's relevant to a person's decision -- geography, age, hobbies, etc. -- that it'd seem like worth a try. I guess extracting some of the data from essay-form responses could be a pain in the butt.

 

[LizzyM]

Out of curiosity, has there been any success using statistical models to predict candidates' likelihood of accepting offers? There seems to be so much juicy primary app info that's relevant to a person's decision -- geography, age, hobbies, etc. -- that it'd seem like worth a try. I guess extracting some of the data from essay-form responses could be a pain in the butt.

I don't know if it is being done. Just by zip code (first 3 digits), undergrad institution, GPA, MCAT it should be easy to group past admitted students into categories and look at the yield for given categories. We hear that students from state X that graduate from school Y never matriculate here but I don't know if that is true. As is often the case, we have more data than we have time.

 

[Goro]

Out of curiosity, has there been any success using statistical models to predict candidates' likelihood of accepting offers? There seems to be so much juicy primary app info that's relevant to a person's decision -- geography, age, hobbies, etc. -- that it'd seem like worth a try. I guess extracting some of the data from essay-form responses could be a pain in the butt.

At my school, the rule of thumb is that the closer the candidate lives to our school, the more likely that they'll attend.

Based upon what I hear from my wise Adcom colleagues at MD schools, it's the other way around, they're more like to be able to predict who won't come, based upon particular parameters.

 

[LizzyM]

The data that schools used to have that they no longer have is if the applicant has other offers (if not, they are almost for sure going to matriculate) and if they have other offers, who made those offers. We might know that in a pool of applicants who have offers from us and the school down the road, 80% will choose us and in another pool between us and our state school, 30% of that pool will choose us, we could know how things might shake out. Now AMCAS does not release that information in a time period when it would be useful.

 

[Goro]

The data that schools used to have that they no longer have is if the applicant has other offers (if not, they are almost for sure going to matriculate) and if they have other offers, who made those offers. We might know that in a pool of applicants who have offers from us and the school down the road, 80% will choose us and in another pool between us and our state school, 30% of that pool will choose us, we could know how things might shake out. Now AMCAS does not release that information in a time period when it would be useful.

Welcome to our world of the DO schools!

 

[tessellations]

Fascinating insight. This seems to be how all the TMDSAS schools operate. Man, it would really be tough to get an acceptance, but have to wait another year before starting.

I knew someone who was asked by her school to defer for a year. She ended up working as a bartender and did a ton of traveling. Apparently she had a ton of fun and a great year off without having to worry about getting in somewhere.

What other time of your life would you have the freedom to basically do whatever you want (assuming you are single, etc.)? I think there could be a positive way to experience that year, especially if the school is giving you a great offer.

 

[mwsapphire]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

For me it's more like Advil for severe headaches or Dramamine for Nausea. ( When I is stress)

 

[LizzyM]

I knew someone who was asked by her school to defer for a year. She ended up working as a bartender and did a ton of traveling. Apparently she had a ton of fun and a great year off without having to worry about getting in somewhere.

What other time of your life would you have the freedom to basically do whatever you want (assuming you are single, etc.)? I think there could be a positive way to experience that year, especially if the school is giving you a great offer.

People often cite the fact that you miss out on a year of attending salary... but I bet some newly minted attendings with a load of debt would gladly trade a year of attending salary for the opportunity to be seven (or 17) years younger with the opportunity to do that kind of working and traveling for a year.

 

[CoitusInterruptus]

I’m admittedly biased as I’m 30 years old. Time for me to get on with it so to speak.

ok boomer. Jk

 

[deleted859689]

ok boomer. Jk

I know you said jk, but 30 not close to being a boomer.

 

[ayjaystudent]

I know you said jk, but 30 not close to being a boomer.

Psh. Boomers always keep changing the cutoff.

 

[LizzyM]

For some reason I don't feel sorry. Hmmmmmm 🤔

You lack empthy! Not sure your'll ever be a good doctor. /jk

 

[GloballyMed]

Psh. Boomers always keep changing the cutoff.

Millenials represent!

 

[star-lily]

People often cite the fact that you miss out on a year of attending salary... but I bet some newly minted attendings with a load of debt would gladly trade a year of attending salary for the opportunity to be seven (or 17) years younger with the opportunity to do that kind of working and traveling for a year.

I also don't totally understand the "missing out on one year of attending salary" argument because, for instance, some people decide to retire later than others (cancelling out the effect) (some attendings seem to never retire until they absolutely have to!), some people don't want to have kids (helping to reduce financial pressure), etc.

 

[Cornfed101]

I’m admittedly biased as I’m 30 years old. Time for me to get on with it so to speak.

some people don't want to have kids (helping to reduce financial pressure)

Some people (me) are 30 and have too many kids

 

[rx001]

The data that schools used to have that they no longer have is if the applicant has other offers (if not, they are almost for sure going to matriculate) and if they have other offers, who made those offers. We might know that in a pool of applicants who have offers from us and the school down the road, 80% will choose us and in another pool between us and our state school, 30% of that pool will choose us, we could know how things might shake out. Now AMCAS does not release that information in a time period when it would be useful.

Not having acceptance data does create change in the way you send out acceptances.
Also Starting March/April lot of acceptees start withdrawing their acceptances. Per my guess 30 to 40 percent acceptances could be given out after March. Again this percentage varies for instate candidates, T20 schools where withdrawal rate is low as compared to a private school.

 

[mwsapphire]

Not having acceptance data does create change in the way you send out acceptances.
Also Starting March/April lot of acceptees start withdrawing their acceptances. Per my guess 30 to 40 percent acceptances could be given out after March. Again this percentage varies for instate candidates, T20 schools where withdrawal rate is low as compared to a private school.

The average matriculant age is 24 so I beg to differ. 2016 stats showed that since then most applicants take at least 1 gap year. Straight through path is becoming out of the norm.

 

[IlDestriero]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

Hmmm... give up a year of $250-600k in income for ~40k tuition waiver. I think I’ll go with no thanks. See you in August.

 

[mwsapphire]

That assumption is incorrect and in fact average age is increasing as well those taking at least 1 gap year
AAMC 2018 Matriculating Student Questionnaire
The Age of MSQ Participants at Matriculation Continues to Rise. The percentage of respondents aged 23 to 25 increased to 49.9% in 2018 (up from 46.9% in 2016 and 48.7% in 2017), and respondents aged 20 to 22 upon matriculation dropped from 34.5% in 2017 to 33.8% in 2018. Similarly, well over half (63.4%) of new matriculants reported that more than a year had passed since graduating from college (up from 60.6% in 2016 and 62.6% in 2017)

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I was saying gap years are the norm! rx001 was saying going straight through is more common.

 

[Ms Procrastinator]

Millenials represent!

Your time is over. It's Gen z's time to rise.

 

[Ms Procrastinator]

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

I guess whoever that is needs an extra bottle of TUMS 🤣

 

[Supisak]

Do you know of those huge bottle of TUMS you see at the drugstore? Every medical school admissions dean is issued a bottle on April 1 in preparation for the five weeks that follow.

Based on historic data, each schools knows its yield. That is the proportion of applicants who accept the offer. So, if we know that we need to make 250 offers to fill 100 seats, we make 250 offers and hope to God that we get 150 applicants who withdraw and go elsewhere. When it gets to be April 28th and there are still 200 applicants who have not turned down the offer, the bottle of TUMS comes out. A school could make 120 offers and back fill from the waitlist but some applicants will say "screw you Bigdeal School of Medicine, you should have taken me straight away rather than waitlisting me... I've decided to go to Hotstuff Med School instead because they didn't disrespect me." I think that depending too much on the waitlist results in a weaker class than giving offers to the top 250 and hoping for the best.

So, you are going to ask, "what happens if too many applicants accept?" This is a tremendous fear and thus the TUMS to help with that indigestion that comes from the spring season worry that is endemic in admissions offices. It happens very rarely. A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Oh, and a school that has an over-enrollment generally has a new dean of admissions the following year.

Didn't this happen to Ohio State Univ Med School a few years back? I think they ended up having to offer free tuition to A LOT of students

 

[DocsSaveLives]

A school will try to make an attractive offer (like a year of school at no charge) in exchange for sitting out a year and matriculating a year later. Some applicants will stay at a good job or go back to school for another degree during that gap year, others will decline the offer because it means starting as an attending a year later than would happen otherwise.

Great info. I have a more specific question: Let's say that the Dean is left with 3 students who are NOT willing to sit out for a year even if they are offered a full ride. Those 3 are the adamant bunch who doesn't want to be left out. What happens in that case? Can the schools force you out for a year?

I am betting there will be lawsuits to force the school to admit the students. Did this ever happen?

 

[LizzyM]

Great info. I have a more specific question: Let's say that the Dean is left with 3 students who are NOT willing to sit out for a year even if they are offered a full ride. Those 3 are the adamant bunch who doesn't want to be left out. What happens in that case? Can the schools force you out for a year?

I am betting there will be lawsuits to force the school to admit the students. Did this ever happen?

A school has at least 83 students to work with in an attempt to turn away 3. So it is not the last 3 but the last 83 (or 153 depending on the size of the school's M1 class) Given that 3 students is 1-3% over enrollment, and given that the rate limiting step usually occurs in year 3 of the training period, it might be okay to take 3 more students that would be most desirable and to hustle to find sufficient clerkship slots for those students 2 years hence. It might also be possible to move 3 of those students back a year by offering a year off for a "free ride" masters degree after M2 year.

Is there anyone here who would turn down an offer of the cost of attendance times four years (a 100% free ride including living expenses) in exchange for showing up a year later than planned? I've got to figure that such an offer could be very costly but might be appealing to at least 3% of the class.

 

[DocsSaveLives]

A school has at least 83 students to work with in an attempt to turn away 3. So it is not the last 3 but the last 83 (or 153 depending on the size of the school's M1 class)

Is there anyone here who would turn down an offer of the cost of attendance times four years (a 100% free ride including living expenses) in exchange for showing up a year later than planned? I've got to figure that such an offer could be very costly but might be appealing to at least 3% of the class.

Thank you for the info and it really helps me to understand how the process works. I was under the impression that they might pick the least ranked candidates from the acceptees and offer them something to sit out for a year. If they consider the whole M1 class and I am sure some will go for the free ride if they do offer it.