Any pathologists looking to FIRE?

[Pathological_Liar]

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Seems like I'm an anomaly in a field with an average (expected) retirement age of 66.8. I like my job well enough, but am looking to retire ASAP (probably 12-14 years of post-fellowship work) to spend my time skiing in Hokkaido, trekking Annapurna/Camino de Santiago, and enjoying modern life in East Asian metropolises.

I figure assuming historically average market returns, I can peace out with $3mm yielding an inflation-adjusted $105-120k/year at 3.5-4% SWR in perpetuity, and make my exit right before socialized medicine starts paying $5 per 88305.

Anyone else just banking on maxing 401k/backdoor Roth/HSA/taxable brokerage + some rental income?

Are pensions still a thing outside of Kaiser?

Anyone retire with an arrangement to work 2-3 months a year to maintain health insurance and reduce sequence of returns risk?

 

[LoaLoa]

Seems like I'm an anomaly in a field with an average (expected) retirement age of 66.8. I like my job well enough, but am looking to retire ASAP (probably 12-14 years of post-fellowship work) to spend my time skiing in Hokkaido, trekking Annapurna/Camino de Santiago, and enjoying modern life in East Asian metropolises.

I figure assuming historically average market returns, I can peace out with $3mm yielding an inflation-adjusted $105-120k/year at 3.5-4% SWR in perpetuity, and make my exit right before socialized medicine starts paying $5 per 88305.

Anyone else just banking on maxing 401k/backdoor Roth/HSA/taxable brokerage + some rental income?

Are pensions still a thing outside of Kaiser?

Anyone retire with an arrangement to work 2-3 months a year to maintain health insurance and reduce sequence of returns risk?

Assuming you’ll be 40ish when you quit and might live to be 100: I might be too conservative, but I’d worry I’d run out of dough before I die with a 3.5% SWR. The fog of war is too thick. Don’t think it’s wise to count on social security being there, and healthcare costs are big question mark. You could always scale back your lifestyle or go back to work if things don’t go well, I guess.

For me, I don’t really mind the day-to-day. I will probably work until I fall out of my chair one day, transitioning from being part of the solution to part of the problem some time around age 60.

 

[octopusprime]

Assuming you’ll be 40ish when you quit and might live to be 100: I might be too conservative, but I’d worry I’d run out of dough before I die with a 3.5% SWR. The fog of war is too thick. Don’t think it’s wise to count on social security being there, and healthcare costs are big question mark. You could always scale back your lifestyle or go back to work if things don’t go well, I guess.

For me, I don’t really mind the day-to-day. I will probably work until I fall out of my chair one day, transitioning from being part of the solution to part of the problem some time around age 60.

Agree. While I like the idea of "retiring", the lifestyle is pretty doable now...for PP anyway...no sense of urgency to start withdrawing...even a few more years of working when you've got 3-4mil invested extends your SWR a ton.

 

[mario2010]

Seems like I'm an anomaly in a field with an average (expected) retirement age of 66.8. I like my job well enough, but am looking to retire ASAP (probably 12-14 years of post-fellowship work) to spend my time skiing in Hokkaido, trekking Annapurna/Camino de Santiago, and enjoying modern life in East Asian metropolises.

I figure assuming historically average market returns, I can peace out with $3mm yielding an inflation-adjusted $105-120k/year at 3.5-4% SWR in perpetuity, and make my exit right before socialized medicine starts paying $5 per 88305.

Anyone else just banking on maxing 401k/backdoor Roth/HSA/taxable brokerage + some rental income?

Are pensions still a thing outside of Kaiser?

Anyone retire with an arrangement to work 2-3 months a year to maintain health insurance and reduce sequence of returns risk?

I am with you on this. I am already lean FIRE at 7th year post fellowship. With current pace I will be fat FIRE in next 3-5 years. When I started, my goal was to exit completely at 10-12 years and do something different, however, I realized that I genuinely love pathology and won't be happy if I stop practicing. I have started to slow down though, taking more vacations now and I have cut down on volume. In my forecast models, I have used 2.5- 3 % SWR. I think in my case, the likely scenario will be long term part-time work around 0.5 FTE and let the principle grow untouched for next 10-15 years. I am at 100% equities with a big cash cushion for buying opportunities and recession hedge.

 

[LADoc00]

I think this is very dependent on your personal situation: if you stay unmarried and have no kids, you could easily retire from a semi-good job in less time than it takes to do undergrad+med school+residency.

I could have retired years ago if I wasnt towing a family. Probably living part-time in Mexico and maybe signing out for fun as a locum provider for a 2 months a year?

I didnt know the average pathologist retirement age is 66.8, I would have sadly guessed much higher...

 

[Vicinal]

Impossible to be Financially Independent and Retire Early living in certain parts of the country. Especially if you have Med school loans, mortgage, and family. Surprising how many highly intelligent people will never be out of debt because of ego and stupid decisions post training. The only way I can see it happening is to live in a low cost of living state with low income tax, high relative pay. Then pay off all debt as soon as you can, save, invest.... rinse repeat.

 

[Guest8]

No plans on retiring early here. I like what I do, wife likes what she does, and haven't even had kids yet so the big expenses haven't even happened. I do love investing and love the third income it gives us, but I don't plan on giving up my sweet PP pay any time soon.

 

[deleted314957]

Not a bad idea. But, one thing stands out to me-your concern with health insurance coverage. Good coverage should cost you no more than $1500/mo.
If your decisions revolve around a sum that trivial in the “big picture” of
retirement savings and you have no kids, debt, etc. you do not have enough.
You want to do some pretty nice stuff without a lot of money(if you want to do
it in style and comfort and not hostels and economy flights).

My personal goal was very conservative and I retired at my 62nd b-day.
I wanted to replace my income with interest, dividends and CG distributions
and, of course, no longer be in accumulation mode.

 

[Dave CX]

Minimum 7 million needed with the plans described and retirement in early or mid 40's. I think you need to work 6-8 years longer than you described, assuming no kids.

 

[deleted314957]

Damn, you guys are conservative. $7 million to generate inflation-adjusted $10k/mo assumes a SWR of like 1.7% (basically an Ally savings account). Even a 100% fixed income (bond and TIPS) portfolio should cut target assets for that withdrawal sum in half. I'd probably do a bond tent / rising equity glide path with up to 50% bonds/treasuries/high yield equities during the retirement year, then draw down from there.

Trinity study suggests 3.5% is safe essentially 100% of the time for 30 years. And $10k/mo provides a pretty nice lifestyle in Asian cities with lax zoning and cheap apartments/food (Tokyo, BKK, Taipei).

I suppose it's possible with $3mm I'll eventually draw down to zero as Asia modernizes around me into a chic version of Bladerunner with $12,000 iphones. But I think I'd rather have those extra 6-8 years of freedom during my 40s than that extra disposable income during my 80s-90s.

To each his own! Best of luck!

 

[LoaLoa]

Trinity study suggests 3.5% is safe essentially 100% of the time for 30 years.

For 30 years, yes. But, depending on one's age, one could easily have a retirement in the 40 to 50-year range, which is why I am a bit more conservative. It would be terrible to run out of money at age 85 and have to be a burden on my children or live on government assistance.

 

[Adrian Cocot]

One: Past performance of markets is not indicative of future performance. It will really suck for a lot of the FIRE types when their cunning plans are destroyed by a recession.

Two: In most of the FIRE discussions, there's always too much focus on the how, and not enough on the why. Spend more time on planning your life after early retirement, because there's a high probability you'll end up either bored or with decision paralysis. Also, be prepared for some envy from friends and family. There's a surprising amount of people out there that disrespect or flat out hate on early retirees.

If you're really woke, you don't retire early. You just become a "freelance consultant."

 

[Pingu]

Trinity study suggests 3.5% is safe essentially 100% of the time for 30 years. And $10k/mo provides a pretty nice lifestyle in Asian cities with lax zoning and cheap apartments/food (Tokyo, BKK, Taipei).

If that's all you are planning to do is live, then 10k should be fine. But when you're talking Annapurna and other treks I can tell you your monthly budget will be gone unless you want to stay in grotty hostels. As someone who enjoys adventure travel (e.g. just climbed Kilimanjaro), I can tell you I would rather be enjoying my travel in comfort than fighting a bunch of 20 year old trustafarians for hot water after 6 days of climbing.

Find a job with lots of vacation. Become a partner and take more vacation the older you get.

 

[path24]

I would say that working past 60 in any career means your doing life wrong. Tons to learn, explore, experience in this world (some takes cash, some doesn't). Can't buy more time. Don't die rich in the cemetery.

Agree, healthcare is the current wild card.

 

[Pingu]

I would say that working past 60 in any career means your doing life wrong. Tons to learn, explore, experience in this world (some takes cash, some doesn't). Can't buy more time. Don't die rich in the cemetery.

I completely agree. But I also believe you should not wait until retirement to do the things you dream of doing. I've seen too many people get cancer, lose a spouse, get disabled a few years before retirement and never get to do anything they had planned for.

 

[Guest8]

I completely agree. But I also believe you should not wait until retirement to do the things you dream of doing. I've seen too many people get cancer, lose a spouse, get disabled a few years before retirement and never get to do anything they had planned for.

Yep. One of my parents has really bad knees and arthritis and can't walk far at all. Pretty much all travel requires walking some, so they don't go anywhere. We've made a point to travel where we want now and not pretend that we have to wait for retirement to do it. My bet is during retirement I'll be far lazier than I am today.

 

[path24]

I completely agree. But I also believe you should not wait until retirement to do the things you dream of doing. I've seen too many people get cancer, lose a spouse, get disabled a few years before retirement and never get to do anything they had planned for.

Finding a happy/realistic balance is key.

I plan/hope to move to part-time in my fifties. If I buy a lottery ticket today, maybe a lot sooner.

 

[Pathbusiness]

Invest in income generating real estate as you grow your wealth. Then you can retire early. Most people I know who have done it successfully tend to be asset rich initially.

 

[LoaLoa]

Invest in income generating real estate as you grow your wealth. Then you can retire early. Most people I know who have done it successfully tend to be asset rich initially.

I’ve always thought investing in securities was simpler and more accessible for beginners, with comparable returns for the average investor. But I keep hearing these stories of people and their rental property empires that make me wonder.......

 

[Guest8]

I’ve always thought investing in securities was simpler and more accessible for beginners, with comparable returns for the average investor. But I keep hearing these stories of people and their rental property empires that make me wonder.......

I'm sure it can work very well and I'm sure people can be very successful at it. But real estate looks like work to me, like a second job. You can invest in securities, even REITs, with minimal effort and do very well. No calls late at night about burst pipes. No problem tenants. No paying a management company to handle all that if you don't want to. I can play the stock market on my computer while signing out cases, or I could just auto-invest in index funds and do great barely lifting a finger. To each his/her own.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

I've been buying rental properties and farms for many years. It is quite lucrative. I like actually owning stuff instead of seeing a statement that creates the illusion I own something.

I started a Doggie Daycare recently that is making a lot of money as well. Start businesses. DO NOT RELY ON PATHOLOGY as your sole income. Get going early.