Anyone buying Facebook yet?

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cchoukal

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I don't buy much in the way of individual stocks, and I certainly wouldn't look at this as a way to invest responsibly for my future, but it's tempting to get in while the price is affordable (there's little to lose) on a stock that could be a juggernaut like Google and Apple.

At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.

What say the SDN-Anesthesiology investment gurus?
 
Facebook will not be a juggernaut. People used the IPO as a way to cash out before the bubble bursts.

It has no promising future revenue streams. Desktop ads are poorly targeted and mobile ads are non-existent (and mobile is the future of social networking).

The only real revenue stream left is selling data, which would cause a huge efflux of the company's only asset (its users).

DO NOT BUY.
 
cchoukal said:
At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.
Click to expand...

I am no guru. I'll leave that up to Doze and Blade....

But I think you answered your own question.

In a down market, buy good solid stocks at cheap prices. In this market, buy solid stocks with good dividends.... but wait until the dust settles. Dollar cost averaging on the way down after your preset threshold. Tax-free bonds offer a safe alternative in our tax bracket.

My home runs for the year:

CRUS: picked up @ 12...holding despite it's down 10% today (from 29)
APPLE: 250 and then again @ 310...holding
FTK: picked up at 5 (told you guys about this one) cashed out at 12
Google: picked up at 505...holding

Oil is starting to look good too. CVX is super solid if it goes down to around 85. It also gives out a decent dividend.

One thing is for sure... you do your own individual stocks... and it becomes a job. I can only track about 15 @ a time and it IS time consuming... (and fun...🙂)
 
cchoukal said:
I don't buy much in the way of individual stocks, and I certainly wouldn't look at this as a way to invest responsibly for my future, but it's tempting to get in while the price is affordable (there's little to lose) on a stock that could be a juggernaut like Google and Apple.

At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.

What say the SDN-Anesthesiology investment gurus?
Click to expand...

Facebook has nothing but the inertia of it's many users and the dependence of social networking on number of users.
All it takes is for google+ or someone to get a critical number of users and facebook will disappear just like myspace, which fb ripped off.
 
All these social media ipo's are very dangerous games the little investor should trade with caution.

Look at linkedin last year. It doubled on the first day...duh these underwriters did not allow any shorting of the stock (frankly they made no shares available for shorts).

Facebook will be profitable but it was simply oversold. Many of the individual's cashed out. I say they will be profitable once they figure out better targeted ads especially in the mobile ad space. The problem is both Apple and Google own the mobile OS and want a big cut of the advertising profits.

So Facebook needs to figure a way to get around Google and Apple's strict advertising requirements. That's why they are figuring out a way for a facebook phone.

It's not like the old tech bubble days where owners of companies who went public kept their shares for at least 6 months.

These days, all the early guys at Facebook...all of them sold out many of their shares.

RenRen is the chinese facebook. Last year Renn went IPO at around $18....went up to $24 in first day or two. Than started tanking like Facebook. It went all the way down to $3. I think it's around $5 now.
 
GypsySongman said:
Facebook has nothing but the inertia of it's many users and the dependence of social networking on number of users.
All it takes is for google+ or someone to get a critical number of users and facebook will disappear just like myspace, which fb ripped off.
Click to expand...

Facebook was just myspace with fewer features and a bit of exclusivity.

It could easily be usurped at any point.
 
johnnydrama said:
Facebook was just myspace with fewer features and a bit of exclusivity.

It could easily be usurped at any point.
Click to expand...

Not exactly.

Classmates.com was the leader. Those owners equity investors got greedy and started charging for access to the information before it was the right time.

Facebook is way too big to be overtaken. Google plus hasn't made a dent.

I have a google plus account. Tried to send other people into my circle and no one wants to join me.

$15-18 a share is when people will start buying again. Right now it's just in a slow decline.
 
I am not a stock guru, but I would be surprised if facebook is the social network of choice in 2 years. As mentioned, whatever the next big thing is can easily displace them.
 
Gern Blansten said:
I am not a stock guru, but I would be surprised if facebook is the social network of choice in 2 years. As mentioned, whatever the next big thing is can easily displace them.
Click to expand...


well done on the avatar, gern...


sincerely,
bob loblaw
 
cchoukal said:
At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.
Click to expand...

While I agree that at 100 x earnings this stock is ridiculously overvalued, and that its possible that facebook could be a fad, the above statement is incorrect. They turned a billion dollars in profit last year on 3.7 billion dollars revenue.
 
I will admit I was a former Facebook user. I have been off for about 2 weeks deactivated account. I find that it takes up too much time checking/rechecking. I am definitely a happier person not using it. Whats alarming about Facebook are the amount of older generation 50+ that are addicted to Facebook. Im not really in touch with the younger generation I'm 31 but really ask yourself what would you be doing if you were not posting on Facebook or checking and rechecking. Facebook is a good concept probably extremely low yield from an advertising/marketing standpoint. Its user base is huge but can that be turned into a marketable force?
 
sevoflurane said:
APPLE: 250 and then again @ 310...holding


Oil is starting to look good too.
Click to expand...


Hmmph amateur. I bought Apple for a split adjusted price of around 8 dollars. Shame I didn't have more to invest at the time. ;-)

Watch out for oil. The usual summer run up may not be as dramatic this year. Warmer winter temps have led to increased consumption and price have already peaked for the year. Near term prices may go down although it may be up by summers end. A tricky year to take advantage of typical seasonal oil volatility.

-pod
 
periopdoc said:
Hmmph amateur. I bought Apple for a split adjusted price of around 8 dollars. Shame I didn't have more to invest at the time. ;-)

Watch out for oil. The usual summer run up may not be as dramatic this year. Warmer winter temps have led to increased consumption and price have already peaked for the year. Near term prices may go down although it may be up by summers end. A tricky year to take advantage of typical seasonal oil volatility.

-pod
Click to expand...

Dude... I didn't know what the stock market was when apple was going for $8. 🙂

Trying to buy quality stocks with good dividends at or near 52 week lows in a down market is how I play this game. Gas prices have already hit $4-6 a gallon. They will be there again. Your point is well taken though I believe oil prices are not solely dictated by demand. Global health is one reason they are down. I think we may see another quantitative easing... if so, it will weaken the dollar and oil prices will go up again. Multiple variables.
 
cchoukal said:
I don't buy much in the way of individual stocks, and I certainly wouldn't look at this as a way to invest responsibly for my future, but it's tempting to get in while the price is affordable (there's little to lose) on a stock that could be a juggernaut like Google and Apple.

At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.

What say the SDN-Anesthesiology investment gurus?
Click to expand...

Absotutely no!
 
sevoflurane said:
Dude... I didn't know what the stock market was when apple was going for $8. 🙂
Click to expand...

I really didn't either and I got super lucky. When I was looking at them, their cash on hand exceeded their market cap so I figured they must be way undervalued.

My best plays have been like that. Just look for an undervalued company.

Buying Boeing a couple weeks after 9-11 was a pretty good one too.

- pod
 
I'm getting interested in CMG again after their 25% haircut. Excellent earnings, just not at the clip WS wanted. Some insider sales a few months ago were a tip off. I think a steady grind higher into August is likely barring anything more dramatic than usual out of Europe. CMG will likely retrace a chunk of it's decline. I put a small bet on August 310 calls today. Probably too early. I'd like to see a close over 292.50 (5 day SMA).
 
sevoflurane said:
Dude... I didn't know what the stock market was when apple was going for $8. 🙂

Trying to buy quality stocks with good dividends at or near 52 week lows in a down market is how I play this game. Gas prices have already hit $4-6 a gallon. They will be there again. Your point is well taken though I believe oil prices are not solely dictated by demand. Global health is one reason they are down. I think we may see another quantitative easing... if so, it will weaken the dollar and oil prices will go up again. Multiple variables.
Click to expand...

Sevo. Good job of stock picking. I like your energy play and if you hold for 2 years you will make money. There are so many undervalued tech and energy stocks out there but their recovery depends on China and stabilization in Europe.

Right now solid dividend paying companies are doing well with lower volatility. I'm gambling on a Romney victory this Fall and a huge stock market rally. Hence, I'm looking for one big sell off between now and the end of October. I bet that I get one.

If Obama wins I expect a slight sell off on the down side and no rally up. In fact, stocks may get beat up as some investors sell expecting a recession and massive tax increases.
So, an Obama victory means buy stocks later in 2012 or early 2013 when pessimism hits a high.
 
powermd said:
I'm getting interested in CMG again after their 25% haircut. Excellent earnings, just not at the clip WS wanted. Some insider sales a few months ago were a tip off. I think a steady grind higher into August is likely barring anything more dramatic than usual out of Europe. CMG will likely retrace a chunk of it's decline. I put a small bet on August 310 calls today. Probably too early. I'd like to see a close over 292.50 (5 day SMA).
Click to expand...

How about Starbucks or McDonald's? Chipotle had a high PE and that must settle In to a reasonable number (PE of 30?) before I consider CMG. There are other growth stocks out there with lower PEs with a good growth rate.

I like CMG around 265. If the market sells off then I get my price.
 
BLADEMDA said:
How about Starbucks or McDonald's? Chipotle had a high PE and that must settle In to a reasonable number (PE of 30?) before I consider CMG. There are other growth stocks out there with lower PEs with a good growth rate.

I like CMG around 265. If the market sells off then I get my price.
Click to expand...

You're talking about real investments. I'm talking about a trade. I tend to stay away from the high PE stocks in general. Still waiting for CRM to implode based on it's PE. Every now and then I'll place a trade like this based on historical data that suggests a template for future price behavior.

How do you feel about REITs? One of my favorite holdings over the past year has been NLY.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Sevo. Good job of stock picking. I like your energy play and if you hold for 2 years you will make money. There are so many undervalued tech and energy stocks out there but their recovery depends on China and stabilization in Europe.

Right now solid dividend paying companies are doing well with lower volatility. I'm gambling on a Romney victory this Fall and a huge stock market rally. Hence, I'm looking for one big sell off between now and the end of October. I bet that I get one.

If Obama wins I expect a slight sell off on the down side and no rally up. In fact, stocks may get beat up as some investors sell expecting a recession and massive tax increases.
So, an Obama victory means buy stocks later in 2012 or early 2013 when pessimism hits a high.
Click to expand...

👍
 
powermd said:
You're talking about real investments. I'm talking about a trade. I tend to stay away from the high PE stocks in general. Still waiting for CRM to implode based on it's PE. Every now and then I'll place a trade like this based on historical data that suggests a template for future price behavior.

How do you feel about REITs? One of my favorite holdings over the past year has been NLY.
Click to expand...


I own NLY. I bought it a while ago and the performance has been mediocre but I get the fat dividend.
 
BLADEMDA said:
I own NLY. I bought it a while ago and the performance has been mediocre but I get the fat dividend.
Click to expand...

NLY is ALL about the dividend. Can supplement with put and call sales if you want, just have to be aware that traders wanting to snatch your dividend can exercise your calls. I have not tried this with NLY (ITM call sales to protect against downside and collect a little premium), but I understand it happens with some frequency.
 
powermd said:
NLY is ALL about the dividend. Can supplement with put and call sales if you want, just have to be aware that traders wanting to snatch your dividend can exercise your calls. I have not tried this with NLY (ITM call sales to protect against downside and collect a little premium), but I understand it happens with some frequency.
Click to expand...

Nice a fellow option trader. Folks may remember I was really active in the stock forum. I still trade a lot. But the majority of my $ is indexed, dollar cost averaged and all that. But I do still keep a good little nut in the retail account. I've been selling OTM naked puts on FB on dips and sellling on rallies. Also bought some deep ITM USO calls when stock dipped below 30. Looking to close out when it gets to around 40.
 
cchoukal said:
I don't buy much in the way of individual stocks, and I certainly wouldn't look at this as a way to invest responsibly for my future, but it's tempting to get in while the price is affordable (there's little to lose) on a stock that could be a juggernaut like Google and Apple.

At the same time, their P/E is absurd, they have no real product (other than brand and good-will), and despite billions of users and trillions of hours of screen time, they have yet to turn a profit.

What say the SDN-Anesthesiology investment gurus?
Click to expand...

Social internet stocks are still unproven.

Want a piece of the stock market?

Relatively safe?

With a DIVIDEND

to boot?

BUY TOBACCO.

My Altria (MO) stock has

DOUBLED IN VALUE

in the last five years, along with a

5% plus dividend!!!:laugh:

I didn't make the rules.

If you wanna make money, sometimes you have to

Thank those people that smoke Marlboro Lights since every cigarette they fire up is contributing to my retirement.😀

I'd also recommend BTI.
 
So what price are you guys actually interested in buying facebook? At this point the P/E is about 68 which makes no sense. Apple, CISCO, IBM, and Google all have P/Es that range from 14-20. If fb goes down to 5 or 6, that puts them in line with those other companies and I'd likely be interested because I do believe in the future of facebook being able to monitize their products
 
ssmallz said:
So what price are you guys actually interested in buying facebook? At this point the P/E is about 68 which makes no sense. Apple, CISCO, IBM, and Google all have P/Es that range from 14-20. If fb goes down to 5 or 6, that puts them in line with those other companies and I'd likely be interested because I do believe in the future of facebook being able to monitize their products
Click to expand...

That's great. I don't. They offer a mediocre product that is only as valuable as it's user base. If it becomes easy to migrate to an alternative, they could be MySpaced overnight.

They also have botched the transition to mobile.
 
johnnydrama said:
That's great. I don't. They offer a mediocre product that is only as valuable as it's user base. If it becomes easy to migrate to an alternative, they could be MySpaced overnight.

They also have botched the transition to mobile.
Click to expand...

I do not understand how they are worth what they say they are. How can what is essentially a big glorified billboard be worth in the multiple billions of dollars? Sounds like a huge amount of goodwill and intangibles aka BS.

I suspect with the recent "timeline" changes, the mobile transitioning issues, the bad IPO, and the fact that the "Facebook" generation has flooded the website with baby family albums that nobody else wants to see, and I foresee a shift to another medium or website by the young, hip, money-using generation.

I wish I had the balls to short this motha.

It's gonna be RIM 2.
 
Well I felt like idiot buying just 100 shares of Facebook on first day near end of trading for $38. I watched it slide almost everyday for 2 weeks before selling it at $28.

Than I felt like an idiot as it rebounded to $31-32. Now it's $20?

It's just shows you how much some of these Ipo's are manipulated these days. Like LinkedIn last year. Could not understand why stock went up first couple of days. Duh. Turns out the banks would lend shares for people to short stock. So freakinf manipulated.

But FB was being shorted from day one and Morgan Stanley kept manipulating prices first few days to prevent it from going lower than 38.00, 33.00. After people caught on Morgan Stanley let it end off the zeros to prevent it from looking obvious.

But as blade said. The money in play is dividen paying stocks. I have PFF, VZ, T. VZ and T have done well. I'm up 20% in a few months plus the dividen yields are around 5%.
 
aneftp said:
Well I felt like idiot buying just 100 shares of Facebook on first day near end of trading for $38. I watched it slide almost everyday for 2 weeks before selling it at $28.

Than I felt like an idiot as it rebounded to $31-32. Now it's $20?

It's just shows you how much some of these Ipo's are manipulated these days. Like LinkedIn last year. Could not understand why stock went up first couple of days. Duh. Turns out the banks would lend shares for people to short stock. So freakinf manipulated.

But FB was being shorted from day one and Morgan Stanley kept manipulating prices first few days to prevent it from going lower than 38.00, 33.00. After people caught on Morgan Stanley let it end off the zeros to prevent it from looking obvious.

But as blade said. The money in play is dividen paying stocks. I have PFF, VZ, T. VZ and T have done well. I'm up 20% in a few months plus the dividen yields are around 5%.
Click to expand...

-IPO's can't be shorted day one. At least not by ordinary investors.
-see my link in post 31 on the wisdom of IPOs
-dividend stocks or dividend growth strategies are poor risk adjusted strategies designed to capture the premium seen in value stocks.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_...dividend-stock-strategy-isnt-a-good-approach/
 
dr doze said:
-IPO's can't be shorted day one. At least not by ordinary investors.
-see my link in post 31 on the wisdom of IPOs
-dividend stocks or dividend growth strategies are poor risk adjusted strategies designed to capture the premium seen in value stocks.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_...dividend-stock-strategy-isnt-a-good-approach/
Click to expand...

I understand about dividen paying stocks strategy. It only makes up less than 10% of portfolio. I am well diversified.

The real issue I have with the article is it keeps relating to past performances. The past decade post dot com bubble has seen a global economy not centered around the us stock market or even Japan.

Every thing is relative. They always talk about the market returning 15-20% rates in the 70s/80s. You could have gotten guaranteed CDs for around 12-14% also during those times of high inflation during the Reagan years and still gotten CD rates guaranteed money 7-9% During the 1970-1980.

So fast forward to today's market. Most people would be lucky to get higher than a 6-7% return the past decade or so.

In fact from 2000-2010 I believe the average return rate from someone vested almost on all equities is close to a 0% return rate. Meaning 10k they put in 2000 was still $10k in 2010. With inflation of 2-3% each year that means most people lost money.
 
I know very little about the stock market. But I do know that Zynga has fallen through the floor after they acquired OMGPop for insane amounts of cash. I think its trading now at around 3 (down from 15 just a few months ago).

Zynga brings (or brought) a lot of traffic to Facebook via their social gaming platforms (Farmville, Poker etc.)

Interest in social gaming is petering out. However....

Delaware recently legalized online gambling, several states are close behind....I would want to watch this very closely, because I am fairly certain Zynga will take advantage of this new legislation.
 
ArMed said:
I know very little about the stock market. But I do know that Zynga has fallen through the floor after they acquired OMGPop for insane amounts of cash. I think its trading now at around 3 (down from 15 just a few months ago).

Zynga brings (or brought) a lot of traffic to Facebook via their social gaming platforms (Farmville, Poker etc.)

Interest in social gaming is petering out. However....

Delaware recently legalized online gambling, several states are close behind....I would want to watch this very closely, because I am fairly certain Zynga will take advantage of this new legislation.
Click to expand...

Zynga isn't well positioned to take advantage of the new legislation. Pokerstars, party poker, and bovada already have the infrastructure needed to lead the way on online legalized gambling
 
sevoflurane said:
Up 23% today... Hitting 36 in change.

Nana....Nice!

Time to cash in a little.

😀
Click to expand...

Holly crap... Crus is a stock that keeps on giving... Hitting 44 today.

Sounds like another round of QE might be coming... I think this is what we are seeing in the market as of recently and this is why silver and gold are gaining ground again. Silver has also been on a tear over the last couple of weeks... If QE doensn't come I think the market is overpriced and may tank... if it does come... it will be good for a little while and then take some hits.

How are you guys playing the market the next couple of weeks/months? I'm taking some profits now.... but it may be the wrong choice if we see a round of QE.
 
charts.dll


Cirrus logic is up 98% in 6 months.
 
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