How much are you estimating for costs?
You seem decently risk tolerant (based on your other posts in the forum), so it's not fully clear to me why you're backing out of this one, unless the costs truly are very high.
Believe it or not, my options trading is actually much less risk than owning Sp500. At least right now. So while i have taken significant risk in the past, but those were very measured and calculated risks where downside was extremely protected and long term i was always going to make money. My risky bets were extremely asymmetric risk vs reward.
For example:
When meta went from $380 to $120, i made a massive bet on the sell off being overblown and the company being undervalued. The sell off was for 2 reasons - they were spending too much on the metaverse (totally in their control to stop that), and their user growth had stalled (2 billion daily active users but weren’t quite getting more users). For this, a 70 percent drop had happened and meta was trading at a price to earnings ratio of 9. This was a company with 2 billion daily users, 40 billion or whatever in the bank, and 30 billion of positive cash flow a year despite increased expenses. They were trading at a P/E ratio of 9 when their peers were trading around 20-35 P/E ratio. Screaming undervalued. I went really big when it was $120. They missed earnings, went to $90-100 for a couple weeks, i took 60k of unrealized loss in that week. Doubled down because the hypothesis still existed. Dropped my strike prices to $70, collected more premium and basically went all in. That’s risky right? But is it really? My worst case scenario was buying meta for $70 which was the price in 2014. A megacap with billions of assets and so much cash flow and 1/4th of the world as their customer. Literally the book value of meta was a share price of $60 ish. Imagine buying a megacap profitable giant for book value (literally the price of the money in the bank plus physical assets - while the userbase, the intellectual property, the on going income is free). And as history has shown meta reversed course on expenses, did lay offs, and Boom! As expected, went back to being priced appropriately. So was it a risky play having 240 contracts for $70 strike when it was trading around $90-100 (the lowest price in 7 years time). You tell me. It was always going to make money, the question just was - when was the reversal going to happen. See attached old screenshots from November when i held 240 contracts of meta and the associated premium with it. From November 6th to November 14 meta made me about 75k after announcing layoffs and expense control. Was it risky? Doing the same trade when meta is at $300 could be risky - but when it’s already hammered, is it really that risky? More like an opportunity of a lifetime, now if i was truly someone who took risk, i would have bought calls, rather than sold significantly out of the money puts that were literally near book price. If i had bought calls, gone all in, id probably have 5-10 million right now on that one trade. But i don’t have those kind of balls to buy calls.
So…with that in mind, let’s answer your actual question.
The costs were probably the following:
5600 1st year malpractice. 2500 deductible. Likely 15-20 percent increase year 2.
2 years of premium for tail coverage if i failed at the business model and had to close shop
$2500 to get board certified plus time to study. $1750 for exam cost, $300 for 90 cme through obesity week, $350 ish for rosh review before boards.
$1000-2000 per month for someone to manage and create the google ads And Facebook ads plus cost of ads.
Cost of above ads would be around $2000-3000 per month, but can rev up or down as needed.
And if i have the balls to do a billboard then it’s $3000-5000 per 4 week period depending on location.
16-18 cents per mailer if i sent one. Around 6-7 cents if i put it in a mailer like valpak.
When you start counting all the expenses, casually starting a side gig while having a full time job, a 3 year old, and a new born on the way, becomes a less attractive proposition. I mean….i can do it. But do i really want to work full time, go home to a crying infant, spend time with my daughters, and somehow find time to be successful at a business? I lack motivation and passion to do 80 hours a week of work now. There’s no motivation to do it. I have money, i have a great home, i have a good life. This year my family income will be north of 850k…the extra 100-150k that i could add working 15 ish hrs a week, after covering for costs and taxes, is basically just not worth it.
Plus Can i compete with other businesses in the area working 15-20 hrs a week, a half hearted effort essentially? Probably not. when it’s time to put real effort, do the work, slog through, i just don’t feel motivated. I’ve already done that for med school which got me here, but i don’t have it in me to do it again (unless i get extrinsically motivated again by losing everything).
The last straw was reading that novo sued a couple of compound pharmacies. The way around it is basically taking out the brand names ozempic/wegovy and replacing with glp1 agonist as a generic term and placing a disclaimer that it’s not to be confused with those brands - that’s what other companies are doing. But i also came across a news report where people got some fungal infection from a compound med from some pharmacy due to poor sterilization. That was the last straw. 1000s of people do it though. They do it for the money. There are so many clinics that are doing this. I set it up with the same greed as others, wanted to make money. But now that I’ve reflected on it, it’s not worth it. It’s not a business for me.
