Anyone think this year will be more or less competitive than last year?

[GypsyHummus]

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The Federal Government is not a household.

By that logic, btw, you shouldn't go to medical school because you are spending money you don't have.

The difference is that a medical education is going to pay back in dividend, or at least it used too. All this money we hemorrhage to frivolous spending will not, such as military, Stimulus package failure, etc.

Tell that to Reagan, Bush I and Bush II... What an uninformed statement!

I agree, I dont like the spending! The best government is the one that spends as little as possible. I would love to have more money in my pocket.

I really liked what Clinton did, and that was a year the federal government had a surplus!

 

[Syialb]

Alright guys, I got bored and decided to look into the numbers. I spent way too long on this, but hopefully it adds value to this discussion.

Here are two charts I made. The first one shows the correlation between the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of AACOMAS applicants. The second one shows the correlation between the number of D.O. schools and the number of AACOMAS applicants.

As you can see, there doesn't seem to be a very strong link between the unemployment rate and the number of applicants. The years that do stand out are 1995-1997, where there was a spike in D.O. applicants, and then 2001-2003, where there was a dip in D.O. applicants. It almost seems like the opposite of what was expected happened, where the number of applicants increased when the economy was better and then decreased when the economy was worse.

The conclusion I came to is that there seems to be a much stronger link between the number of D.O. schools and the number of applicants (makes sense). Since 2003, there's been a steady increase in D.O. applicants. This corresponds with the recent huge increase in new D.O. schools opening. In 2002, the total D.O. enrollment was 9,882 (19 schools). In 2012, this has more than doubled to 20,663 (34 schools). These numbers include branch campuses.

It would've been nice to also include M.D. applicants as well (or just total medical school applicants), but I'm too lazy to do the work required for that now. I uploaded the Excel spreadsheet for anyone that wants to look at the actual numbers.

Sources

1. BLS Unemployment Rate Stats: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
2. AACOMAS Applicant Numbers (before 2007): http://www.aacom.org/data/applicantsmatriculants/Documents/Applicants by gender 6-17-2011.xls
3. AACOMAS Applicant Trends: http://www.aacom.org/data/Documents/Trends-apps-enroll-grads.pdf
4. AACOMAS Applicant Numbers (after 2007): http://www.aacom.org/resources/e-news/ome/2013-02/Pages/Applications.aspx

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

Actually I see good data if you consider the number of applicants curve to be lagging, which makes sense.

 

[ZezKaiEll]

Actually I see good data if you consider the number of applicants curve to be lagging, which makes sense.

Yea I agree, there was some talk about this on the previous page. According to this trend we should see the # of applications dip over the next few years then (assuming lower unemployment).

Very nice work on the graph btw.

 

[ZezKaiEll]

Looking closer, it seems like the only part of the number of applicants graph that doesn't match the delayed version of the unemployment graph is around 2005-2006 when you'd expect a dip to match the lower unemployment rate from 2003-04 relative to before that. This might be explained by the perception of the economy being really bad. This is of course before the housing market crash but well after the post 9/11 market meltdown. I seem to recall that perception about the economy was very negative even then. Who knows though. Very interesting data to look at.

 

[Back 5]

What does it matter if there are more or less applicants this year?

 

[IslandStyle808]

What does it matter if there are more or less applicants this year?

More or less competition that is the issue of the thread basically. (I am not sure if there is an inference in your question).

 

[Back 5]

More or less competition that is the issue of the thread basically. (I am not sure if there is an inference in your question).

It's an interesting discussion, but relatively pointless because the answer to the original question is not going to have any bearing on what you do.

Let's say we find out this year will be ultra competitive. Do you wait out this cycle in the hopes that next year is more favorable? Do you try to force an application early, before you are ready, because you hear this cycle will be lower than normal applicants?

We apply and we compete against other applicants. It's the nature of medical school applications. We are going to do this regardless of how many other people apply.

 

[hallowmann]

I'm neither Republican or Democrat. I just don't watch Fox or MSN.

I fixed that for you.

Economy is not improving, Especially in medical device industry. The Affordable Care Act has led to many cuts in employment in that sector because of the new medical device tax. N=1, but my dad says they cut 5ish people from his department, and there are more cuts to come!

Would not bank on the Economy getting better anytime soon. It is not. It is illusion. We as a country need to be fiscally conservative people. We spend way to much.

Look at the new proposed expansion of residencies. Can our Gov afford to fund more of them (15K they said)? No, we should stick with the residencies we have and stop expanding medical school. there are enough if the IMG and FMG dont end up matching, and that would save a lot of money.

I have no idea when this mindset of liberal spending took root. I was raised to believe that you dont spend money that you dont have.

IMGs and FMGs are not the reason we spend too much on Medicare. We have a physician deficit, or at very least we have a major distribution problem. Unlike most AMGs, IMGs and FMGs are actually willing to go and work in the middle of nowhere for $150k. If AMGs were very willing to do the same, maybe we wouldn't need to import physicians.

Actually I see good data if you consider the number of applicants curve to be lagging, which makes sense.

That's what I was thinking.

Looking closer, it seems like the only part of the number of applicants graph that doesn't match the delayed version of the unemployment graph is around 2005-2006 when you'd expect a dip to match the lower unemployment rate from 2003-04 relative to before that. This might be explained by the perception of the economy being really bad. This is of course before the housing market crash but well after the post 9/11 market meltdown. I seem to recall that perception about the economy was very negative even then. Who knows though. Very interesting data to look at.

I think it still demonstrates a correlation, but it doesn't take into account other factors that affect DO applicant numbers, like an overall greater acceptance of the profession, presence of more DOs in more areas, the increased difficulty of obtaining a residency as an IMG, and of course the increase in DO schools and seats as Syialb demonstrated.

It's an interesting discussion, but relatively pointless because the answer to the original question is not going to have any bearing on what you do.

Let's say we find out this year will be ultra competitive. Do you wait out this cycle in the hopes that next year is more favorable? Do you try to force an application early, before you are ready, because you hear this cycle will be lower than normal applicants?

We apply and we compete against other applicants. It's the nature of medical school applications. We are going to do this regardless of how many other people apply.

I think the point was curiosity more than anything else.

 

[Columbia09]

We won't know for sure until they come back and contradict themselves...

I thought he said republican not democrat

 

[Syialb]

Actually I see good data if you consider the number of applicants curve to be lagging, which makes sense.

Yea I agree, there was some talk about this on the previous page. According to this trend we should see the # of applications dip over the next few years then (assuming lower unemployment).

Very nice work on the graph btw.

I think it still demonstrates a correlation, but it doesn't take into account other factors that affect DO applicant numbers, like an overall greater acceptance of the profession, presence of more DOs in more areas, the increased difficulty of obtaining a residency as an IMG, and of course the increase in DO schools and seats as Syialb demonstrated.

Thanks guys. Yeah, I think you're right. I mis-interpreted. We would probably see the effect of more people changing gears and pursuing med school a bit after poor economic conditions rather than right away (have to take prereqs, study for MCAT, etc.).

 

[phys2med]

I've been wondering about this for a while now. Every doctor I've shadowed has said there will be a shortage of doctors in the coming years with the changing healthcare laws and the rise of middle levels. The first time I heard this I got excited and thought perhaps there would be less competition but now I think that's the wrong way to look at it.

Perhaps the shortage of doctors will be more of "better healthcare leads to longer life expectancy which leads to more and more elderly needing healthcare" instead of just not as many students applying. I'm also unsure if the healthcare bills will have a big impact on the number of applicants. I realize hopeful doctors are on average fairly intelligent and able to look pretty far into the future, but how many of them understand the changing face of healthcare? Most applicants have been in school their entire life and shadowing/volunteering isn't a great way to learn the business side of medicine. Lastly, I agree more people will pursue PA degrees but I don't think this is going to significantly effect the number of applicants to med school but I could be wrong.

 

[CnsCrit]

Pretty interesting data. I think we've all thought about whether med school will be more competitive in the year we are applying than in previous years, but it just doesn't happen that fast. Med school will probably continue to get more competitive over time slowly just like it always has. I guess at the "worst" there will be an extra 1,000 applicants this year. At the same time, we have a huge physician shortage in this country, especially in primary care. More physicians = better healthcare for everyone. Hopefully there will be more help from lawmakers in the coming years to address other issues like medical student loan repayment and funding for residency programs.

 

[IslandStyle808]

It's an interesting discussion, but relatively pointless because the answer to the original question is not going to have any bearing on what you do.

Let's say we find out this year will be ultra competitive. Do you wait out this cycle in the hopes that next year is more favorable? Do you try to force an application early, before you are ready, because you hear this cycle will be lower than normal applicants?

We apply and we compete against other applicants. It's the nature of medical school applications. We are going to do this regardless of how many other people apply.

I think the point was curiosity more than anything else.

I agree with hallowmann on this one. Also knowing there is less competition on the year you apply gives a slight sense of relief (then again it is a very very very slight sense because there are still a lot of people applying anyway).

 

[obbobbo]

I think that one can always hope that it get's less competitive, but I've watched it over the past few years and it really only seems to get a little more competitive each year. I don't see this year being much different.

 

[notbobtrustme]

The difference is that a medical education is going to pay back in dividend, or at least it used too. All this money we hemorrhage to frivolous spending will not, such as military, Stimulus package failure, etc.

You're still spending money you don't have. Just because you can justify it doesn't make you less of a hypocrite.

You: The government shouldn't spend money it doesn't have.

Your actions: I want to take out 300k in loans (aka money I don't have) to pay for medical school.