Where did you learn to round 41% and 26.4% to 50%?
It was only 41% that I was rounding, and honestly the percent is the least important part of the argument. I was merely reporting numerous anecdotal responses I've heard, and offering a minor point like, when 2/5's of the applicants have something "good" and you don't, it will stand out.
I apologize that I didnt confirm the exact number before posting. If 9% makes the difference between you trying for AOA and not, then I believe there are other things you should probably work through.
I've yet to talk to someone who has AOA that has gone through interview season say, "Man, AOA did me absolutely no good. I interviewed at crappy schools, and no one mentioned it." However, I have heard people say it helped, and I've heard people say it hurt to not have it. Truth is, with out data its hard to say. The closet we get is that according to Charting Outcomes, those with AOA have a higher match rate than those without. Good arguments can be made that it isn't the AOA that is responsible, but the qualities that residencies look for are the same as what AOA looks for. Thats fine, but then isn't the lesson the same? Both groups are looking for approximately the same thing, therefore if you have it, and they trust the AOA selection process, it will help you. This of course assumes that those interviewing value good grades, board scores, research, etc. If they don't, then they'll care just as little about AOA as they will the fact you have all passes and a 220 Step 1.
My point: Those who have it say it helps, those that don't say it hurts, and a few who don't come on to message boards and talk about how little it helps and complain about how they didn't get it. Draw from that what you will.