No shadowing? This will severely decrease your changes of an acceptance. Get on the phone NOW, and call some doctors to see if you can watch them for a week. Make sure that there is a primary care doc in the mix. Ideally, you should have around 100 to 150 hours of shadowing, and if you really kick it into gear, you can get that amount and still submit AMCAS early(and you really do need to submit early with your GPA). If you're dealing with finals and lots of other things now though, 50 hours will be reasonable to not get you thrown out immediately. Then you can send updates to schools later with more hours.
I personally don't think publications are as important as having research experience, unless its a first or second author publication. The people who have publications tend to do better in the application cycle due to the fact that publications are often a direct result of doing research. Only one year of research will hurt you for the research heavy schools, but it should be fine everywhere else.
I can't tell you your chances at specific schools, but I say you have a chance. I can say that your list is a little top heavy, with USC, UCSD, UCI, UCD, Georgetown, and Boston. Add a few more lower tier schools, submit early, and do some shadowing. You should be fine.