bad GPA this semester, wondering about effects

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alhs525

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I'm currently a junior who plans on applying to MD/PhD after my senior year (so I will have one gap year). My GPA for my first 4 semesters of college is ~3.85 (I haven't received any Bs so far, but a ton of A minuses that bring my GPA "down" from a 4.0).

This semester, I am struggling pretty badly in the classes I am taking. They're really difficult (p-chem, a high-level math course, and physics II). I know surely that my GPA will drop this semester and I'm worried about how this may affect my future chances when I apply. I'm predicting that my GPA this semester may be anywhere from 3.3-3.7 (if lucky), and my overall GPA for all 4 years (provided I perform better in the next 3 semesters before graduating) will be between 3.7-3.8. I attend a Top 10 university (no grade inflation here though!) if that helps any...

I was looking at the stats for the top MD/PhD programs and the average GPA for acceptances are ridiculously high! Most of the programs I'm interested in have averages of 3.9... should I set my sights lower?

For my activities, I have pretty good research experience (will have 3 years of undergrad research), and I also have clinical experience from volunteering at the hospital (where I am up close with the patients).

Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could improve my chances? and perhaps is there anything I could do during my gap year to improve/offset my GPA?

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One "bad" semester isn't going to kill your chances. A 3.8 final GPA shouldn't put you at a disadvantage. I wouldn't worry about it so much. There are dozens of other things, like strong research, that matter more or equally. No one is looking at an A- or B+ and saying wow that is a terrible grade.
 
A cumulative 3.7 GPA will not keep you out of top programs. You meet the 3.5 threshold, and it appears that you are challenging yourself by taking tough courses. If you have a strong research background and a decent MCAT score, you will be fine. If your research background is not strong, a 4.0 will not get you an interview. See slide 16 at https://www.aamc.org/students/download/121086/data/mdphd_isitrightforme.pdf for GPA distribution in the national pool.
 
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