Balanced school list based on stats vs. MSAR data

[spottedcory]

I'm picking schools to balance out my school list, and I was wondering if I was interpreting data correctly. My list is top heavy right now and I wanted to balance it out, so I was thinking of adding Stony Brook. But on MSAR, their interview rate is 9% and post-interview matriculant rate (#matriculants/#interviewed -- using this as a proxy for post-interview acceptance rate) is 1%. Multiplying these two together, a quantification of my chances is about 0.9%.

Conversely, UPitt is at a higher stat range, but their interview rate is 8.7% and their post matriculant rate is 18%. Multiplying them together is 1.5%. This doesn't make sense to me...why is UPitt's number higher than Stony? Given that my stats fall out of Stony's stat range but within UPitt's range, would it make more sense to add UPitt (and make my list more top heavy)?

Edit: I also know that my chances aren't 0.09% or 1.5% to get in. I'm just using these numbers to compare schools and try to estimate my chances. I also just chose Stony/UPitt as examples so I'm wondering more about the logic of using these numbers rather than comparing these two schools specifically

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[Goro]

I don't know what you're doing, but whatever it is, it's wrong.

If you're not a New Yorker, I can't recommend SUNY-SB, as it seems you'r eignoring the IS vs OOS stats. State schools favor the home team, so one has to be > avg for them if applying from OOS.

Pick a schools based upon where your stats are for the 10th -90th %iles. For the Really Top Schools, make it 25-90th. The higher up the pole you want to climb, the more slippery it gets.

PM me with stats, and state of residence, and I can provide suggested list.

 

[spottedcory]

I don't know what you're doing, but whatever it is, it's wrong.

If you're not a New Yorker, I can't recommend SUNY-SB, as it seems you'r eignoring the IS vs OOS stats. State schools favor the home team, so one has to be > avg for them if applying from OOS.

Pick a schools based upon where your stats are for the 10th -90th %iles. For the Really Top Schools, make it 25-90th. The higher up the pole you want to climb, the more slippery it gets.

PM me with stats, and state of residence, and I can provide suggested list.

I used the stats for OOS specifically for both schools. I'm multiplying (#interviews / #total applications) * (# matriculants / #interviewed). I saw that Stony Brook was a common school on high stat applicant lists, so I was checking it out and based on the stats I noticed that UPitt had better numbers than Stony despite having higher stats, which is why I was confused and made this post because I wasn't sure if I was using the MSAR data right. While I realize it's faulty logic somehwere...how do you know it's wrong if you don't know what I did? You did recommend a school list to me in the past, so I can use examples from that list instead.

UMiami recieves 6912 OOS applications, interviews 333 OOS, and 90 OOS matriculate. There is an OOS interview rate of 4.8% and OOS matriculant rate of 27%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor both interview and post-interview chances, is 1.2%. Conversely, Harvard has a an OOS interview rate of 12% and post-interview matriculant rate of 17%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor in chances for interview and then post-interview acceptance is about 2%. Isn't it weird that Harvad has a relatively high acceptance rate compared to UMiami, given its competitiveness? I was trying to modify the school list given to me to pick schools that fit me, and I wanted to factor in my chances for admission, so I came up with this method.

 

[datboi_58]

I used the stats for OOS specifically for both schools. I'm multiplying (#interviews / #total applications) * (# matriculants / #interviewed). I saw that Stony Brook was a common school on high stat applicant lists, so I was checking it out and based on the stats I noticed that UPitt had better numbers than Stony despite having higher stats, which is why I was confused and made this post because I wasn't sure if I was using the MSAR data right. While I realize it's faulty logic somehwere...how do you know it's wrong if you don't know what I did? You did recommend a school list to me in the past, so I can use examples from that list instead.

UMiami recieves 6912 OOS applications, interviews 333 OOS, and 90 OOS matriculate. There is an OOS interview rate of 4.8% and OOS matriculant rate of 27%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor both interview and post-interview chances, is 1.2%. Conversely, Harvard has a an OOS interview rate of 12% and post-interview matriculant rate of 17%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor in chances for interview and then post-interview acceptance is about 2%. Isn't it weird that Harvad has a relatively high acceptance rate compared to UMiami, given its competitiveness? I was trying to modify the school list given to me to pick schools that fit me, and I wanted to factor in my chances for admission, so I came up with this method.

This might possibly maybe be a good method for schools of similar caliber AFTER you've factored in IS/OOS preferences.

To answer your question, no it's not weird. These percentages are relatively small but I do grant you they're different. If you look at the matriculants, Miami has 90 matriculations whereas Harvard has 165 (I found this online but it might be wrong). Harvard simply has a bigger class so yes, statistically speaking, your chances are higher BUT it is simply because Harvard has a bigger class size. However, if you look at the applicants of each school, you'll see your chances are probably higher at UMiami if you're not Harvard competitive because the applicants generally have lower stats and ECs at Miami. Your chances are probably higher at Miami even if you are Harvard competitive because mid-tier schools value highly competitive applicants as well. This process isn't just probabilities. Your best chance of getting in to a med school will be to apply to schools that match your stats and value the ECs you've done.

 

[spottedcory]

This might possibly maybe be a good method for schools of similar caliber AFTER you've factored in IS/OOS preferences.

To answer your question, no it's not weird. These percentages are relatively small but I do grant you they're different. If you look at the matriculants, Miami has 90 matriculations whereas Harvard has 165 (I found this online but it might be wrong). Harvard simply has a bigger class so yes, statistically speaking, your chances are higher BUT it is simply because Harvard has a bigger class size. However, if you look at the applicants of each school, you'll see your chances are probably higher at UMiami if you're not Harvard competitive because the applicants generally have lower stats and ECs at Miami. Your chances are probably higher at Miami even if you are Harvard competitive because mid-tier schools value highly competitive applicants as well. This process isn't just probabilities. Your best chance of getting in to a med school will be to apply to schools that match your stats and value the ECs you've done.

Thanks so much for the explanation! It was super clear and it makes sense that I can only compare stats with school in the same class. Sometimes making a school list just feels like walking on a tightrope lmao.

 

[Goro]

I used the stats for OOS specifically for both schools. I'm multiplying (#interviews / #total applications) * (# matriculants / #interviewed). I saw that Stony Brook was a common school on high stat applicant lists, so I was checking it out and based on the stats I noticed that UPitt had better numbers than Stony despite having higher stats, which is why I was confused and made this post because I wasn't sure if I was using the MSAR data right. While I realize it's faulty logic somehwere...how do you know it's wrong if you don't know what I did? You did recommend a school list to me in the past, so I can use examples from that list instead.

UMiami recieves 6912 OOS applications, interviews 333 OOS, and 90 OOS matriculate. There is an OOS interview rate of 4.8% and OOS matriculant rate of 27%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor both interview and post-interview chances, is 1.2%. Conversely, Harvard has a an OOS interview rate of 12% and post-interview matriculant rate of 17%. Multiplying these two numbers together to factor in chances for interview and then post-interview acceptance is about 2%. Isn't it weird that Harvad has a relatively high acceptance rate compared to UMiami, given its competitiveness? I was trying to modify the school list given to me to pick schools that fit me, and I wanted to factor in my chances for admission, so I came up with this method.

Private schools do not have IS bias. It only looks that way due to some states (CA, NY, PA) having a large cadre of talented pre-meds.

Different med schools have different pools of applicants. MY DO school is pretty much as hard to get into as Harvard, but we don't get Harvard-caliber applicants (well, actually, we're starting to see those now).

The app process is not the Lotto.

 

[deleted889094]

Refer to the list on r/premed sidebar for OOS-friendly schools.

Your math is flawed, though, because not all students apply to all schools.

E.g. If Yale had an interview rate of 10% and acceptance of 1% would you consider that easier than, say, Albany if they had an interview rate of 8% and an acceptance rate of .5%?

It matters who applies - and people generally apply to schools that fit their stats. So if you're reaching high, you're less likely to make the interview in the first place.

 

[spottedcory]

I don't know what you're doing, but whatever it is, it's wrong.

If you're not a New Yorker, I can't recommend SUNY-SB, as it seems you'r eignoring the IS vs OOS stats. State schools favor the home team, so one has to be > avg for them if applying from OOS.

Pick a schools based upon where your stats are for the 10th -90th %iles. For the Really Top Schools, make it 25-90th. The higher up the pole you want to climb, the more slippery it gets.

PM me with stats, and state of residence, and I can provide suggested list.

Sorry for reviving an old thread, I was having trouble reconciling some data that I saw. I found this sheet from the 2020-2021 Applicant sticky that shows Post-II Acceptances, and it says Stony Brook is a good choice for OOS applicants (docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NDHcXgD-Irr02LfTIgTJ7rtnTMCDfXwwn3q2i94Wm_Y/edit?usp=sharing). I also looked at my own institution's specific acceptance data, and Stony Brook is ranked top 30 for institutions that have accepted the most applicants in number and percentage from my undergrad. I'm confused that 3 data sheets I'm looking at suggest that Stony is a good choice for a non New Yorker, but I also see here that Stony is not a good OOS choice?

 

[Goro]

Sorry for reviving an old thread, I was having trouble reconciling some data that I saw. I found this sheet from the 2020-2021 Applicant sticky that shows Post-II Acceptances, and it says Stony Brook is a good choice for OOS applicants (docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NDHcXgD-Irr02LfTIgTJ7rtnTMCDfXwwn3q2i94Wm_Y/edit?usp=sharing). I also looked at my own institution's specific acceptance data, and Stony Brook is ranked top 30 for institutions that have accepted the most applicants in number and percentage from my undergrad. I'm confused that 3 data sheets I'm looking at suggest that Stony is a good choice for a non New Yorker, but I also see here that Stony is not a good OOS choice?

My reasoning was as follows:
IS app: 2136
IS interviews: 508
IS seated: 107

OOS app: 2625
OOS interviews: 243
OOS seated: 25

Note how much harder it is to get an interview as an OOSer vs a NYer? And how less likely it is for a OOSer to get a seat compared to a NYer?

I have no idea where they're getting the numbers of % accepts in the spread sheet. Close to 50% accepts for OOS IIs? Not possible.

Typically you can estimate the number of accepts as being 2-3x the number of seats for that group. So max, 30% of interviewees, but only ~3% of apps.

Hmm, on second thought, that might not be too bad. I'll modify my list accordingly.