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Markets back to near all-time highs.
Powell just said the “time has come” to start cutting interest rates next month.
Once again, Nvidia earnings will be extremely impactful (Aug 28th).
I used some gunpowder on this dip and rebound. If Nvidia blows up again, market will rally to new highs w/o a doubt.
If it falls short, we might test recent lows, but I doubt it goes beyond that.
 
sevoflurane said:
Markets back to near all-time highs.
Powell just said the “time has come” to start cutting interest rates next month.
Once again, Nvidia earnings will be extremely impactful (Aug 28th).
I used some gunpowder on this dip and rebound. If Nvidia blows up again, market will rally to new highs w/o a doubt.
If it falls short, we might test recent lows, but I doubt it goes beyond that.
Click to expand...

Does NVDA have any impact on crypto?
 
sevoflurane said:
Markets back to near all-time highs.
Powell just said the “time has come” to start cutting interest rates next month.
Once again, Nvidia earnings will be extremely impactful (Aug 28th).
I used some gunpowder on this dip and rebound. If Nvidia blows up again, market will rally to new highs w/o a doubt.
If it falls short, we might test recent lows, but I doubt it goes beyond that.
Click to expand...

What's your average cost for NVDA?
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
My guess is post Labor Day (ironic ain’t it). The Japan unwind crash will reveal who was on the wrong side of that trade and who’s connected to that entity and so on.
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U and my friend both were right on this. Sub 50s this wknd and hopefully next week and ill be nibbling for sure.
 
We’re getting close to a liquidity cycle that a gonna blow our socks off. The Fed announced a 50 basis cut in the price of money. I’ve been accumulating all summer buying dips and have some cash if the market totally pukes. Hopefully the inflation is contained to the markets and assets. Unfortunately with the current clown election cycle and fiscal irresponsibility tells me inflation is gonna spill over to pricing goods for all Americans. I’m ready either way, hopefully the rest of you and tribe is as well.
 
LivetoTell said:
I’m holding onto my ETH, because you never know. But, everyone thinks Solana is a ETH killer.
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Solana has unlimited supply though? The ATH price is $260 but it would have to go higher to match the previous market cap.
 
mentos said:
How you know?

I hope ETH goes back up it's been crappy lately.
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Just a guess but I follow the money.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

M2.png
 
All the economic indicators are pointing to a contraction in the economy. And with this Port strike in full swing, things could get gnarly, the longer this strike lasts. Saying all that, I am treading lightly in all markets.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
All the economic indicators are pointing to a contraction in the economy. And with this Port strike in full swing, things could get gnarly, the longer this strike lasts. Saying all that, I am treading lightly in all markets.
Click to expand...
Would be ironic if btc dropped sub 50k in october. Last time it bottomed only after the rate cuts started. Im calling low 50s which will leave newbies in tears saying "what happened to guaranteed october gains" and then btc will continue to go up and most will kick themselves for selling low and not buying at bargain prices.
 
Anyone still believe in ETH? I'm losing hope 😑
 
Bc everyone and their uncle think we are going to explode up in q4 just like september was suppose to be a down month I won't be surprised if we go sideways till q1 2025 since this cycle has resembled 2016 where nothing really happened till q1 2025. No one knows who wins the us election but i could see it dumping there too regardless who wins. If im blackrock big whales I am going to manipulate this hard and have an extended black friday sale in q4 then gobble up at bargain prices since everyone thinks they know whats going to happen usually the opposite does.

Final prediction for 2024 now till end up of year just a whole lotta sideways action but still think we dip into the mid 40s but bounce back to current levels.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Bc everyone and their uncle think we are going to explode up in q4 just like september was suppose to be a down month I won't be surprised if we go sideways till q1 2025 since this cycle has resembled 2016 where nothing really happened till q1 2025. No one knows who wins the us election but i could see it dumping there too regardless who wins. If im blackrock big whales I am going to manipulate this hard and have an extended black friday sale in q4 then gobble up at bargain prices since everyone thinks they know whats going to happen usually the opposite does.

Final prediction for 2024 now till end up of year just a whole lotta sideways action but still think we dip into the mid 40s but bounce back to current levels.
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I hope you're right about sideways action because it is good for buyers. But here is what is going to happen:

Trump is going to win. That's what smart money is saying. BTC will soar in October, November, and December. It will reach $100k by end of the year, driven by Trump victory and rate cuts and increased global liquidity. MSTR and BTC etfs will keep on stacking. By middle of next year, most physicians will not be able to afford even 1 BTC on their annual salary (after taxes, after living expenses).
 
AD04 said:
I hope you're right about sideways action because it is good for buyers. But here is what is going to happen:

Trump is going to win. That's what smart money is saying. BTC will soar in October, November, and December. It will reach $100k by end of the year, driven by Trump victory and rate cuts and increased global liquidity. MSTR and BTC etfs will keep on stacking. By middle of next year, most physicians will not be able to afford even 1 BTC on their annual salary (after taxes, after living expenses).
Click to expand...

Its good for buyers if you have conviction its going to go 2x from currrent prices but i have a feeling most will give up or get bored with an extended stay in this range and even sell.

I like to keep my expectations low. Was only a few weeks ago the odds were not looking good and suddenly they changed. Too much time to say anything but yeah if the election was tomorrow then the sentiment right now would be an advantage but 2.5 wks gives me pause based on where things were 2.5 wks ago from today.

I would be happy with 100k cycle top in 2025. I just see the q4 action mostly in the 60-80k area with maybe dips into the 40-50s but staying in current range more or less. q1 2025 we'll start to break out of this range similar to 2016-q1 2017.

For what its worth I hope i am completely wrong here and your predictions come true in 2024. I just rather tune back in q1 2025 then think something magical happens during thanksgiving/xmas 2024 and be dissapointed.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Price quietly approaching 70K again is great for accumulation. This bull cycle is far from over imo. Plus crypto is being adopted by tradfi is the signal.
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I mean depends what one's prediction for the cycle is though. If i think its 100k top this cycle not sure its a great accumulation. Maybe you or others are thinking 140-150 then yeah by that logic sure but for me i believe diminishing returns will be significant this time.

Hope im wrong and you and plan b are closer to the real moves because i'd love to go part time someday sooner than later and surely won't happen anytime soon if we only get to 100k aside from I maybe able to afford a house intead of renting which is why im even excited at the idea of reaching that level.
 
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finalpsychyear said:
I mean depends what one's prediction for the cycle is though. If i think its 100k top this cycle not sure its a great accumulation. Maybe you or others are thinking 140-150 then yeah by that logic sure but for me i believe diminishing returns will be significant this time.

Hope im wrong and you and plan b are closer to the real moves because i'd love to go part time someday sooner than later and surely won't happen anytime soon if we only get to 100k aside from I maybe able to afford a house intead of renting which is why im even excited at the idea of reaching that level.
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Rather not say what my BTC price at the top of the cycle could be. Don’t wanna trigger the no coiners. Lmao
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Rather not say what my BTC price at the top of the cycle could be. Don’t wanna trigger the no coiners. Lmao
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So IBIT is up 46% YTD while MSTR is up basically 4x that YTD but has no fees. Is MSTR just considered much more risky by investors in general?

if btc goes up even 50% from where its at now,so close to 100k range, does that imply that mstr would be 2x that in returns?
 
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finalpsychyear said:
So IBIT is up 46% YTD while MSTR is up basically 4x that YTD but has no fees. Is MSTR just considered much more risky by investors in general?

if btc goes up even 50% from where its at now,so close to 100k range, does that imply that mstr would be 2x that in returns?
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MSTR is something I've been pondering deeply. It is trading 2.5x mNAV. This means that for every $1 you can buy of BTC, you only get $0.40 BTC per $1 of MSTR. MSTR bulls say that the company should be trading at more than 1x mNAV because the company can generate BTC yield. But the question is can the BTC yield make up for paying more per BTC. As MSTR gets larger and as BTC gets larger, it is harder to generate significant BTC yield percentage-wise. IMHO, in the long-term, MSTR should trade at 1x mNAV especially as more companies adopt BTC. Anyways, the bigger MSTR gets, the bigger BTC will get as MSTR acquires more BTC. Both are reflexive. However, MSTR has a moat due to the amount it dedicates to BTC (about 120 - 140% leveraged compared to 100% for spot BTC etf). Few others companies can do that. This increases volatility of MSTR which gives it better access to liquidity, especially at more favorable terms. (It's options math.)

MSTR is not a slam dunk. There is no guarantee that premium would persist. For example, GBTC used to trade at premium but it traded at discount until it became ETF. Right now, MSTR is enjoying premium as it is offering traditional finance a way to get BTC returns without having to buy BTC. For example, Vanguard doesn't let you buy IBIT or FBTC but allows you to buy MSTR. MSTR taps in equity markets and debt markets and everything in between.

Sure, MSTR can trade at even higher mNAV. If BTC doubles and mNAV doubles, that is 4x returns nominally. But Saylor has every incentive to decrease mNAV as he converts MSTR to BTC. If BTC doubles and mNAV halves, that is 1x returns nominally (i.e.you don't make or lose money). If BTC doubles and mNAV drops more than 50%, then you'll lose money. So MSTR can outperform or underperform or perform as same as BTC.
 
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If ETH hits 4k again I'm out. I wish I sold back in April.
 
mentos said:
If ETH hits 4k again I'm out. I wish I sold back in April.
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I’m waiting until we at least break the 2021 high, which I believe was ~4800. I’m hoping that happens in 2025 🤞
 
https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/downloads/fj2362424

The Federal Reserve believes that Bitcoin is so worthless that they wrote a paper expressing their desire to ban it so “permanent deficits” can be implemented. This year the US federal fiscal deficit will be greater than $2,000,000,000,000 (The national debt is increasing by 1 trillion every 100 days or so). I wonder what the deficit will be if they got their wish? If you understand how the monetary and fiscal plumbing works and who is ultimately responsible for the deficit, you might consider having insurance against the uncontrolled federal gov spending and their desires to increase spending and leave no option to opt out.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/downloads/fj2362424

The Federal Reserve believes that Bitcoin is so worthless that they wrote a paper expressing their desire to ban it so “permanent deficits” can be implemented. This year the US federal fiscal deficit will be greater than $2,000,000,000,000 (The national debt is increasing by 1 trillion every 100 days or so). I wonder what the deficit will be if they got their wish? If you understand how the monetary and fiscal plumbing works and who is ultimately responsible for the deficit, you might consider having insurance against the uncontrolled federal gov spending and their desires to increase spending and leave no option to opt out.
Click to expand...

Man every time you post something positive about BTC it dips 😂
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Was more to be informative so we can all learn in real time. The bullishness is like a 3rd or 4th order effect that I think we’ll see eventually.
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I just think people are drinking btc kool aid of the past. Your seeing diminshing returns at an exponential level. Less risk and larger MC now = way way less reward. plan b touting 500k avg btc.... i mean really... wtf....even the power law giovanni who hates plan b is at least saying 200k max but low prob he admits.

Maybe sol gets you the 3-5x people so badly hope for. Way smaller MC and way more risk is why you can get that. With btc you get better gains than s&p500 and gold but the delta will shrink. This year ytd is 23% VOO, 33% gold, and 53% btc.

We should be on cloud 9 if we get another 50% from now till 2025 peak. Do i think it beats gold and voo over the next 12 months...... I do. I just think its hopium on the numbers im hearing and people should be thrilled if we peak out in the 90-100 range. Are people forgetting it only went up 3.5x the last cycle and prior to that it was 19x??? if it maintains that trajectory we would go up at max 50%.The real money was if you bought at the low range of 17-20 in the bear market or for those who were around in 2020 cycle getting btc in the 10-20k range or lower and just holding.

My final 2024 post on this topic unless the king decides to visit 6 fig by xmas then all bets are off but just thought people should be aware of the history here and not caught up in the hopium galore going around.
 
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mentos said:
Right now it's:
ETH +17%
SOL -19%
BTC +11%
BNB +50%
ADA -78%
DOT -85%

My portfolio is like 80% ETH, 10% SOL and the rest are tiny positions. I didn't really have a plan LoL.
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Crazy how badly ETH has performed in the past few months. My other coins have been around the same price since then.

ETH -15%
SOL -13%
BTC +17%
BNB +54%
ADA -83%
DOT -90%
 
finalpsychyear said:
I just think people are drinking btc kool aid of the past. Your seeing diminshing returns at an exponential level. Less risk and larger MC now = way way less reward. plan b touting 500k avg btc.... i mean really... wtf....even the power law giovanni who hates plan b is at least saying 200k max but low prob he admits.

Maybe sol gets you the 3-5x people so badly hope for. Way smaller MC and way more risk is why you can get that. With btc you get better gains than s&p500 and gold but the delta will shrink. This year ytd is 23% VOO, 33% gold, and 53% btc.

We should be on cloud 9 if we get another 50% from now till 2025 peak. Do i think it beats gold and voo over the next 12 months...... I do. I just think its hopium on the numbers im hearing and people should be thrilled if we peak out in the 90-100 range. Are people forgetting it only went up 3.5x the last cycle and prior to that it was 19x??? if it maintains that trajectory we would go up at max 50%.The real money was if you bought at the low range of 17-20 in the bear market or for those who were around in 2020 cycle getting btc in the 10-20k range or lower and just holding.

My final 2024 post on this topic unless the king decides to visit 6 fig by xmas then all bets are off but just thought people should be aware of the history here and not caught up in the hopium galore going around.
Click to expand...

Enjoy the run up
 
finalpsychyear said:
Do we know what exactly is the catalyst here aside from uptober? All i can see is the betting market is leaning more toward one person but nothing else.
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Short answer is no. But…

I do think the election being 1 week away is the biggest catalyst. I also think being roughly 6 months post-halving may be playing a part… especially since we’ve *mostly* chopped sideways since then.

Pumptober/Uptober going out like a lion!!
 
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