Be ahead of the curve

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mentos said:
I didn't realize selling GBTC would cause BTC to drop.
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If a surplus of buying causes the BTC price to go up, why wouldn't a surplus of selling cause the price to go down?

This isn't unique to GBTC - It would be the same result for any of the BTC-backed spot ETFs - GBTC just happens to be the largest, and people are selling in droves due to the exorbitantly high fees.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
If a surplus of buying causes the BTC price to go up, why wouldn't a surplus of selling cause the price to go down?

This isn't unique to GBTC - It would be the same result for any of the BTC-backed spot ETFs - GBTC just happens to be the largest, and people are selling in droves due to the exorbitantly high fees.
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For some reason I thought GBTC wasn't directly tied to the price of BTC, which is why the spot ETFs were such a big deal?
 
sevo00 said:
Because you play with yourself at night
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ceiling cat GIF
 
kb1900 said:
It’s always been very easy to come out ahead (IMO) with btc just by swing trading around points of resistance and DCAing in anytime we’re not at an ATH. As a retailer I think this has always been the way to go
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Let us know when you buy and sell and at what price. It’s harder in real time than looking at what you could have done in the past.
 
triggermaster said:
Let us know when you buy and sell and at what price. It’s harder in real time than looking at what you could have done in the past.
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Forgive me If this is incoherent I’m post a horrendous 28h of trauma call


I have done quite a bit of work in crypto finance and high frequency trading in the past but nothing very impressive. Most of my exp was market making across cex and defi when the landscape allowed noobs like me to compete for a while. Tiny margins but the goal was to accumulate crypto at all times, fiat prices be dammed. Perhaps you could argue I’m still in touch with the pulse of the market but I don’t think anybody who claims they are, is.


in real life personal money trading,I still ultimately consider myself just a casual retail investor. I no longer do any fancy programmatic trading (defi summer and NFT degening was fun while it lasted though). But I’ve been doing this simple retail investing a long time. My avg btc cost basis is < 10k if that gives you an idea. I track the ticker along with the rest of my portfolio on my iPhone Home Screen widget. If I see - 8% or more in 24h/7d that’s generally a good buy signal and I decide how much I want to buy over what time period and set up the recurring buy in my cex of chocie. Maybe that’s a week maybe that’s a 6mo bear market you never know. Better to start small and over a long time when buying IMO. God knows how many times I’ve seen the fiat value of my crypto go down 50%. But my goal is to accumulate BTC here, not fiat.

I never ever buy at an ATH.. When I buy I set up my buy limit price targets if I’m not going to be able to stalk the books for a while. In that case I just look for points of resistance/support which is something that you can also find online that may be more reliable than your individual cex depending on order book depth. Most of my trade history is spot market order buys + background recurring weekly or daily buys.

I rarely/seldom sell unless we’re near an ATH or want to rotate to other cryptos/fiat investments


My fiancée complains that it looks like I’m a gambler when I “suddenly” decided to put $2k into btc at 38k. Sure it could have tanked down further. But if my long term thesis is 100k and over taking gold then does it really matter? Also I paid off my loans from this market, during recessions, this is play money as far as I’m concerned and it has paid to be greedy during those times. In the end I have a budget for crypto and all other investments per month and per year and try to stick to that. Also I’m a resident so I have a 30-200 year time horizon assuming kids and what not
 
finalpsychyear said:
Just so i am understanding you are basically DCA q2 weeks but holding extra powder to go in if we touch 35k ish?
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Not who you responded to but my current set up is as follows:

Daily btc buy
Q1-2 week buy
15k ready to go with orders at 39, 36, 35 - I adjust these numbers whenever I can based on some light reading and checking out the order books daily
This all fits into my overall saving/investing budget which is flexible month to month but fairly rigid for the year overall


I also adjust my q1,q2w and daily buys depending on how I feel things may change on longer time frames


I think a good amount of this structure is psychological voodoo systems you build for yourself/your money so that you can stick to your thesis but still allow for modifications without going crazy when the market swings hard in either direction
 
finalpsychyear said:
Just so i am understanding you are basically DCA q2 weeks but holding extra powder to go in if we touch 35k ish?
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Correct. Buying regularly this year, and getting more on bigger dips. I do technical analysis (horoscopes for men) to find areas of liquidity support/resistance and interest. I was day trading the futures market a while back, but the anesthesia market is tasty right now.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Correct. Buying regularly this year, and getting more on bigger dips. I do technical analysis (horoscopes for men) to find areas of liquidity support/resistance and interest. I was day trading the futures market a while back, but the anesthesia market is tasty right now.
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So you must be feeling a new ATH high towards the end of 2024 if your buying now.
 
My guess is a new ATH later this year and a blow off top Q1 or 2 2025. We could also continue in a depression and not see new highs for years But that would mean the fiscal deficit would decrease and the money printer would stop. With the interest payment alone on our national debt (> 34 trillion) larger than our total defense budget (and on the way to be more than social security as well), I think more currency debasement is coming our way.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
My guess is a new ATH later this year and a blow off top Q1 or 2 2025. We could also continue in a depression and not see new highs for years But that would mean the fiscal deficit would decrease and the money printer would stop. With the interest payment alone on our national debt (> 34 trillion) larger than our total defense budget (and on the way to be more than social security as well), I think more currency debasement is coming our way.
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You still think crypto is a hedge against inflation even though it was the opposite during the recent rise in inflation?
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
It’s a hedge on monetary debasement. There’s a difference.
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After Trump and Biden gave helicopter money, the inflation genie was out and the Fed has been trying to fight it ever since. But now the government is spending wildly. Interesting to listen to both politicians talk about spending and the Fed trying to fight inflation. Those are two opposites (and the federal government is winning with the national debt going exponential).
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
You think SVB is the only bank with massive holes in their balance sheets? [emoji51]

The SVB collapse was set in motion many months ago by some politicians that hate bitcoin and crypto (and the bank that serviced the industry silvergate) and facilitated with the help of the 2nd lender of last resort.

SilverGate bank was a small player, but the concerns moved up the food chain and spread to SVB. Now there’s talk of 1st Republic Bank having mass redemptions.

I’m not apologizing for poor risk management of these banks, but overzealous actions sometimes have unintended consequences and we may be seeing that in real time.
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Now $NYCB is about to go under and probably be gobbled up for pennies on the dollar (probably by JPM chase), I wonder if there are more regional banks that might come floating to the surface. My guess is yes.

The money printer is gonna be plugged in sooner than later.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
My guess is a new ATH later this year and a blow off top Q1 or 2 2025. We could also continue in a depression and not see new highs for years But that would mean the fiscal deficit would decrease and the money printer would stop. With the interest payment alone on our national debt (> 34 trillion) larger than our total defense budget (and on the way to be more than social security as well), I think more currency debasement is coming our way.
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Will you look to sell say 50% of your position during this bull run if we get into the low 100's? Then presumably DCA back in with that same money in the next bear market i am guessing if 100k ish is the top we could see 25-30k near the bear market low? I am guessing this is how people continue to accumulate more and more btc aside from spending some on things they fancy if they make a good profit.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Will you look to sell say 50% of your position during this bull run if we get into the low 100's? Then presumably DCA back in with that same money in the next bear market i am guessing if 100k ish is the top we could see 25-30k near the bear market low? I am guessing this is how people continue to accumulate more and more btc aside from spending some on things they fancy if they make a good profit.
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Yes.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Will you look to sell say 50% of your position during this bull run if we get into the low 100's? Then presumably DCA back in with that same money in the next bear market i am guessing if 100k ish is the top we could see 25-30k near the bear market low? I am guessing this is how people continue to accumulate more and more btc aside from spending some on things they fancy if they make a good profit.
Click to expand...

People have different ways of accumulating. Some dollar cost average no matter what the price. Some time the market by accumulating BTC in the bear market (2022 and 2023) and sell during a mania, and rinse repeat. Some DCA and play in the alt, meme and s*it coin market where the gains (vs USD and BTC) can lead to 10-100-1000x gains. Obviously more risk there but the potential rewards are crazy.

I’m basically doing the 3rd option. Any BTC I accumulate, it goes to my cold storage. It’s off the market. I play the alt coin market, with TA.
 
Any of y’all restaking eth on eigenlayer for its eventual airdrop? I’m currently restaking through a few protocols like ether.fi and swell, but thinking about running my own validator node to reduce risk.
 
sevo00 said:
there are all non SOL farms. On Celestia network and osmosis
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There are so many. I don’t farm or leverage play on BTC and crypto. It’s just too volatile and easy to get blown out, but the potential gains are ridiculous. I just stack. I will be market making and arbitrage trading through a bot on a DEX soon. Market making (like farming) is a great way to earn yield by creating liquidity from decentralized exchanges. I just rather do it myself rather than pool it with others.
 
txhorn said:
Any of y’all restaking eth on eigenlayer for its eventual airdrop? I’m currently restaking through a few protocols like ether.fi and swell, but thinking about running my own validator node to reduce risk.
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Have you looked into what it takes to run an ETH node. You’ll need a lot of memory and technical know how. Good luck
 
Small cap value and small cap core will rally hard the second half of this year. I expect 20% plus gains in small caps once the Fed starts cutting rates.
I also expect a rally in large caps/VOO as well in the range of 5-7%. This should be another good year if we stay out of military conflicts.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Small cap value and small cap core will rally hard the second half of this year. I expect 20% plus gains in small caps once the Fed starts cutting rates.
I also expect a rally in large caps/VOO as well in the range of 5-7%. This should be another good year if we stay out of military conflicts.
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Brother this is a crypto thread. If I wanted to talk about VOO I’d call my grandfather
 
txhorn said:
Any of y’all restaking eth on eigenlayer for its eventual airdrop? I’m currently restaking through a few protocols like ether.fi and swell, but thinking about running my own validator node to reduce risk.
Click to expand...

Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Have you looked into what it takes to run an ETH node. You’ll need a lot of memory and technical know how. Good luck
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Look into eth-docker or other semi-automated processes to set one up. You can have a future-proof set up for <$1000 that eventually pays for itself (on a long enough timeline).

It requires some technical know-how but not that much, IMO, especially with the more automated setups that still preserves self-custody. Setting one up from scratch using Somer Esat’s guides is much more intense though.
 
anaesthetic said:
Look into eth-docker or other semi-automated processes to set one up. You can have a future-proof set up for
It requires some technical know-how but not that much, IMO, especially with the more automated setups that still preserves self-custody. Setting one up from scratch using Somer Esat’s guides is much more intense though.
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I’ve run and BTC node in the past and it wasn’t that difficult. iirc running an ETH node required a ton of data storage capabilities, but that was many years ago when the network was Proof of Work. Now that is POS it might be different.

My next project sometime this year is run a node on the DCR network, and utilize the market making and arbitrage bot to market make on the DEX they are building out and keep the spread and stack more sats and atoms. Will be a good way to earn passive income.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
I’ve run and BTC node in the past and it wasn’t that difficult. iirc running an ETH node required a ton of data storage capabilities, but that was many years ago when the network was Proof of Work. Now that is POS it might be different.

My next project sometime this year is run a node on the DCR network, and utilize the market making and arbitrage bot to market make on the DEX they are building out and keep the spread and stack more sats and atoms. Will be a good way to earn passive income.
Click to expand...

I need a tutorial on this arbitrage bot making…
 
txhorn said:
Any of y’all restaking eth on eigenlayer for its eventual airdrop? I’m currently restaking through a few protocols like ether.fi and swell, but thinking about running my own validator node to reduce risk.
Click to expand...

I liquid staked on swell network and received swETH which I then staked on eigenlayer. Hoping this qualifies for a 2 in 1 airdrop
 
Exiting sol with pleasure

Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Have you looked into what it takes to run an ETH node. You’ll need a lot of memory and technical know how. Good luck
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Its not that hard but I suggest the vast majority to just use a staking platofrm or pool.


I have a small set of 5 PCs clustered together and 2 fall back offsite. Using proxmox hypervisor to run Linux VMs and afford high availabiliy. Also a dedicated UPSx2


People running a single node with a docker container will get ruined it is a matter of time. Maybe your power cuts. Maybe network goes down. Maybe a your router ****s up dhcp leases. If you aren’t technically competent it completely ruins the risk reward
 
sevo00 said:
I need a tutorial on this arbitrage bot making…
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In its basic form…

Python script
Get order books from various dex apis
Look at spreads
Calculate fees
Execute trades as fast as possible


In its complex form you have triangular and cyclical arbitrage. Many platforms integrated. Swap fees. Rebalancin. . Everything is smart contract based rather than python. Now you’re competing with MEV front running transactions etc. It’s the big leagues


Eventually everything moves to the complex form and plebs like us do not compete easily. You will have enough failed or 1 sided trades that you can’t stay market neutral.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Have you looked into what it takes to run an ETH node. You’ll need a lot of memory and technical know how. Good luck
Click to expand...
It doesn’t seem too bad, although i cheated and bought a dappnode home to simplify the technical aspects. Figured it was worth the extra cost for the time I save.
 
sevo00 said:
Brother this is a crypto thread. If I wanted to talk about VOO I’d call my grandfather
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Its ok. Older you are it's harder to see the vision of what's happening.... cell phones, netflix, iphones, electric cars...... digital currency.. though i'd argue at this point the latter makes the most sense. Sure there could be a new king in crypto but for now its going to be the one that has the 9 ETFs plus whatever else is happening in the world. I'd be very surprised if we don't break 75-80k in this cycle peak price but i'm staying conservative and think we'll probably have to wait till 2029 to actually go 6 fig (100k+)
 
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