Be ahead of the curve

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mentos said:
I guess today can be considered fireworks.
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dipping my toes in. I think we have more to go and tmrw will be a another dump before wknd. I'd guess we see sub 80k btc sometime before monday. lesson Ive learned is always have cash on the sidelines for days like today and probably tmrw and the weeks to come. like clockwork.
 
The Fed is now willing to to help ‘stabilize’ the markets. The only way out of this mess is to let it collapse on the weight of the debt or print money.

The debt based Ponzi requires a slow constant money printing so People don’t realize their savings (and purchasing power) is diluted away. But when the Debt is pushed to the Sovereign level (since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis) and then that market is distorted, the printing amount goes exponential.

A BTC pump might be around the corner.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The Fed is now willing to to help ‘stabilize’ the markets. The only way out of this mess is to let it collapse on the weight of the debt or print money.

The debt based Ponzi requires a slow constant money printing so People don’t realize their savings (and purchasing power) is diluted away. But when the Debt is pushed to the Sovereign level (since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis) and then that market is distorted, the printing amount goes exponential.

A BTC pump might be around the corner.
Click to expand...

Had a friend who finally bought 1 coin instead of doing the 529 allocation since its so limited for his newborn but plans for 3 kids total. He asked if in 18 some years it would be able to cover 4 years of college for 1 kid. I said more than likely would cover college, grad school, weddings for all 3 with a bearish 15-18 CAGR and you'll have some change. He looked at me like i was crazy.

btc only makes up 0.2-0.3% of the worlds money. In 5-10 years its going to approach closer to 1-2% as more people understand and allocate away from other things plus total money will continue to grow.
 
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finalpsychyear said:
Had a friend who finally bought 1 coin instead of doing the 529 allocation since its so limited for his newborn but plans for 3 kids total. He asked if in 18 some years it would be able to cover 4 years of college for 1 kid. I said more than likely would cover college, grad school, weddings for all 3 with a bearish 15-18 CAGR and you'll have some change. He looked at me like i was crazy.

btc only makes up 0.2-0.3% of the worlds money. In 5-10 years its going to approach closer to 1-2% as more people understand and allocate away from other things plus total money will continue to grow.
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Why is 529 limited?
 
final btc 2025 prediction numbers: likely only to get to 120-130 as the blow off top, i think if that happens eth will get back to 3-4k.

Then likely only going to barely break 200k in 2029 given diminishing returns.

Im still amazed we hit 100k so i cant ask for much more. Still crazy returns compared to the market. I have a weird feeling though that now when no one is expecting much of a gain that there could still be a nice surprise higher but its a bonus.

Its unlikely i will be able to go part time anytime soon if these numbers are close to being right.
 
finalpsychyear said:
final btc 2025 prediction numbers: likely only to get to 120-130 as the blow off top, i think if that happens eth will get back to 3-4k.

Then likely only going to barely break 200k in 2029 given diminishing returns.

Im still amazed we hit 100k so i cant ask for much more. Still crazy returns compared to the market. I have a weird feeling though that now when no one is expecting much of a gain that there could still be a nice surprise higher but its a bonus.

Its unlikely i will be able to go part time anytime soon if these numbers are close to being right.
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Any predictions for when the top will be this year? Summer? I'm ready to get out of ETH.
 
mentos said:
Any predictions for when the top will be this year? Summer? I'm ready to get out of ETH.
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This may be a 2016-2017 type of cycle if we start to see a run up in the may-june time range. Still think it will be q4 like always. I see us at or near 100k in the next 2 mo.
 
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Bitcoin is following this administrations moves.
Predicting anything is like going to the casinos.
The one thing it has going for it, like gold, is that the dollar is at 3 year lows as a reserve currency
 
It doesn’t bounce below 80k much over the last few months. This is a good sign. I wouldn’t make wild predictions though. If the tariff war escalates, everything goes down.
 
sevoflurane said:
Bitcoin is following this administrations moves.
Predicting anything is like going to the casinos.
The one thing it has going for it, like gold, is that the dollar is at 3 year lows as a reserve currency
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BTC is green today though.
 
mentos said:
BTC is green today though.
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Dow down almost 1000 but gold and btc both up. Still could be a delayed dump few days later for them. Still feel it has held up well to be honest. If we get a sniff of qe and cuts coming and the m2 is already up without them i think it should be positive.
 
mentos said:
BTC is green today though.
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Safe heaven for plummeting dollar and market turmoil.
It's exposure is international. Like I said, it is behaving like gold.
It isn't "cycling", it's reactionary to global markets and weakening dollar.
I am behind this thought process, which is why I have buy orders under 80K.
 
sevoflurane said:
Safe heaven for plummeting dollar and market turmoil.
It's exposure is international. Like I said, it is behaving like gold.
It isn't "cycling", it's reactionary to global markets and weakening dollar.
I am behind this thought process, which is why I have buy orders under 80K.
Click to expand...

Did you nibble when it was under 80k before few weeks ago cuz i think you were looking around then and that price point for entry?
I thought it was going to fall more so i didnt get as much as i wanted.

Funny how not many are expecting much from btc this year and that maybe it peaked already. I think thats when it does the unexpected.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The Fed is now willing to to help ‘stabilize’ the markets. The only way out of this mess is to let it collapse on the weight of the debt or print money.

The debt based Ponzi requires a slow constant money printing so People don’t realize their savings (and purchasing power) is diluted away. But when the Debt is pushed to the Sovereign level (since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis) and then that market is distorted, the printing amount goes exponential.

A BTC pump might be around the corner.
Click to expand...

btc up 10% since this post. gold nearly breaking 3500 today but up around 7-8% since this post.

could the m2 supply pump which gold has followed or even lead finally lead to btc playing big time catch up since it is severly behind??

Next 30 days should be informative.
 
finalpsychyear said:
btc up 10% since this post. gold nearly breaking 3500 today but up around 7-8% since this post.

could the m2 supply pump which gold has followed or even lead finally lead to btc playing big time catch up since it is severly behind??

Next 30 days should be informative.
Click to expand...

Could be that capital is being reallocated out of the US treasury (for now maybe or permanently) and into hard assets (GOLD and BTC). From the history I’ve read, when the world is full of uncertainty, capital seems to move where it feels it’s most stable (and less likely to be debased). Gold has 5000 years of history. BTC not so much, but we might be witnessing global adoption in real time.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Did you nibble when it was under 80k before few weeks ago cuz i think you were looking around then and that price point for entry?
I thought it was going to fall more so i didnt get as much as i wanted.

Funny how not many are expecting much from btc this year and that maybe it peaked already. I think thats when it does the unexpected.
Click to expand...
No. Not yet. Just a measly 10k worth.
I am eager to get in, however. If the dollar wasn’t tanking I’m not sure how much of a bite I would want.
I think there will be more buying opportunities.

Can someone explain to me how you get yield out of bitcoin? Are these leveraged aquisitions?
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Could be that capital is being reallocated out of the US treasury (for now maybe or permanently) and into hard assets (GOLD and BTC). From the history I’ve read, when the world is full of uncertainty, capital seems to move where it feels it’s most stable (and less likely to be debased). Gold has 5000 years of history. BTC not so much, but we might be witnessing global adoption in real time.
Click to expand...
True. If btc can consolidate closer to 100-105
even before qe gets underway maybe this summer combined with a rising m2 esp if rate cuts start in june/july... could be a set up for a dynamite q4 finish to the bull run.


With etfs now the fomo could be next level and that is maybe the combined factors which could see us get very close to the 150-200 range though im not expecting it but can see a potential path
 
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btc< 5% away from 100k and no one cares.



Dead Silence GIF by Studios 2016
 
finalpsychyear said:
Eth is going to surprise in the next few months. It always plays dead first before face ripping gains. Just played dead for longer this time. Its like jason from friday the 13th. Ill be keeping my doors locked.
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You know when they think they have killed jason and then they come back to the body but find its mysteriously dissapeared.

Eth just did that

.
Friday The 13Th Halloween GIF by Paramount Movies
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
$BTC back over 100K and retail has no idea. I wonder at what price will it be noticed?
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Retail doesn't have money to gamble with like they did 4 years ago. Living expenses are out of control, the rent is too damn high, utilities are crazy expensive, groceries are expensive, stores and restaurants are closing. Consumer spending is down.
 
mentos said:
Retail doesn't have money to gamble with like they did 4 years ago. Living expenses are out of control, the rent is too damn high, utilities are crazy expensive, groceries are expensive, stores and restaurants are closing. Consumer spending is down.
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Thats a fair point. I think I read somewhere about 20% of Americans account for 70-80% of the spending economy. K shaped economy. Unfortunately the wealth divide in the US might get much worse before the gap closes. But Americans love casinos. And the crypto casino is open 24/7. And we’re dealing with a global market.

Recessions we see might be industry specific.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Thats a fair point. I think I read somewhere about 20% of Americans account for 70-80% of the spending economy. K shaped economy. Unfortunately the wealth divide in the US might get much worse before the gap closes. But Americans love casinos. And the crypto casino is open 24/7. And we’re dealing with a global market.

Recessions we see might be industry specific.
Click to expand...
It is crazy out there.

Survey: 42% of Americans Don't Have an Emergency Fund​


 
anonperson said:
People are still spending like crazy.

I was at Disneyland with the family recently. Completely packed.

Restaurants in general are so busy. I see wait times for over an hour at an expensive AYCE Japanese Wagyu restaurant near me.

People still doing UberEATS and doordash regularly.
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It's probably the top 20% because if your household income < 100k in this economy, you are pretty much f[insert].
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Thats a fair point. I think I read somewhere about 20% of Americans account for 70-80% of the spending economy. K shaped economy. Unfortunately the wealth divide in the US might get much worse before the gap closes. But Americans love casinos. And the crypto casino is open 24/7. And we’re dealing with a global market.

Recessions we see might be industry specific.
Click to expand...


Why do you think the wealth gap will ever close?
 
nimbus said:
Why do you think the wealth gap will ever close?
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The current system we’re in (over 100 years old) is close to the endpoint and a reset imo is coming (when, I don’t know. 1,5, 10 years who knows). I’m an ideologue and I’m hopeful the new system coming will be more meritocratic than the present crony one we’re in.
 
anonperson said:
People are still spending like crazy.

I was at Disneyland with the family recently. Completely packed.

Restaurants in general are so busy. I see wait times for over an hour at an expensive AYCE Japanese Wagyu restaurant near me.

People still doing UberEATS and doordash regularly.
Click to expand...

That sounds like a small sample size of upper middle class people. The average American can't afford a basic emergency, as mentioned.
 
mentos said:
That sounds like a small sample size of upper middle class people. The average American can't afford a basic emergency, as mentioned.
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I think covid has destroyed the lower middle class and the middle class.

I remember when my household income was 110-120//yr between 2010-2014 and life was great. I even purchased a second home. Family that are making even 150k/yr now can't enjoy the type of lifestyle I enjoyed between 2010-2014.
 
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Splenda88 said:
I think covid has destroyed to lower middle class and the middle class.

I remember when my household income was 110-120//yr between 2010-2014 and life was great. I even purchased a second home. Family that are making even 150k/yr now can't enjoy the type of lifestyle I enjoyed between 2010-2014.
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In my area, a starter home was 300k during that time. Now a starter home is 700k.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The current system we’re in (over 100 years old) is close to the endpoint and a reset imo is coming (when, I don’t know. 1,5, 10 years who knows). I’m an ideologue and I’m hopeful the new system coming will be more meritocratic than the present crony one we’re in.
Click to expand...


Isn’t the crypto industry a bastion of cronyism? It’s all about who you know bro 😉

The rest are suckers.
 
Splenda88 said:
It is crazy out there.

Survey: 42% of Americans Don't Have an Emergency Fund​


Click to expand...

This seems unusually low. Would have expected 60-70% given the aforementioned high cost of literally everything. No one is slowing purchases down, resteraunts packed. One can deduce that the middle class is largely living on credit with little to no savings. At least in the short term.

Upper class won't and don't care.

Lower class is subsidized but the upper and middle classes and essentially gets by on govt handouts.
 
TheLoneWolf said:
This seems unusually low. Would have expected 60-70% given the aforementioned high cost of literally everything. No one is slowing purchases down, resteraunts packed. One can deduce that the middle class is largely living on credit with little to no savings. At least in the short term.

Upper class won't and don't care.

Lower class is subsidized but the upper and middle classes and essentially gets by on govt handouts.
Click to expand...
I thought the number would have been lower (10-15%). I have a hard time believing that 40% of the country can not save themselves from 1k emergency spending when everyone has iPhone 15/16.
 
TheLoneWolf said:
This seems unusually low. Would have expected 60-70% given the aforementioned high cost of literally everything. No one is slowing purchases down, resteraunts packed. One can deduce that the middle class is largely living on credit with little to no savings. At least in the short term.

Upper class won't and don't care.

Lower class is subsidized but the upper and middle classes and essentially gets by on govt handouts.
Click to expand...

We’re on an unsustainable path and it can’t be reversed. What’s gonna happen, has been in the making for 100 years.
 
TheLoneWolf said:
This seems unusually low. Would have expected 60-70% given the aforementioned high cost of literally everything. No one is slowing purchases down, resteraunts packed. One can deduce that the middle class is largely living on credit with little to no savings. At least in the short term.

Upper class won't and don't care.

Lower class is subsidized but the upper and middle classes and essentially gets by on govt handouts.
Click to expand...
Gonna party like it's 1999. The music is gonna stop. Have fun until then.
 
Splenda88 said:
I thought the number would have been lower (10-15%). I have a hard time believing that 40% of the country can not save themselves from 1k emergency spending when everyone has iPhone 15/16.
Click to expand...

My uneducated assumption, or rather observation, is that a large percentage of the lower-middle to mid-middle class is living paycheck to paycheck. This does not mean they limit themselves from extravagant spending.

When I was a med student in Chicago, worst parts of the City (Southern Chicago), majority of ladies would come in high end branded clothes, newest release phones, nails and hair professionally done. To come give us an attitude to "sign the WIC" forms and deal with EBT stuff. It was bizarre how they, almost, were reading the same script in their heads to the docs.

Needless to say, I came away with the impression that some of the government monies was not going to the improvement of their children's health and futures. Rather, a large chunk was , um, imaginatively circumvented to other ends.
 
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