Well, if the probe is measuring flow across the mitral valve, the peaks on the graph will represent ventricular filling in diastole. S1 and S2 mark the start and finish of systole respectively, so we can rule out S1 and S2 right off the bat. I think the initial peak represents blood flow from passive ventricular filling, while the second peak denotes blood filling from left atrial contraction. An S3 is heard during passive filling in mid-diastole, while S4 is heard during atrial contraction in late-diastole, so the sound most closely related to the arrow would indeed be S3. Also the description of the patient's symptoms is consistent with CHF which also suggests S3. Hope this helps.