School list and chances are pointless without an MCAT score.
As for MCAT score to aim for, 29.3% of Wisconsin applicants ended up matriculating IS. That's a pretty high number and accounts for close to 70% of Wisconsin matriculants. Hence, Wisconsin is a pretty solid state for med school admission purposes and your odds in med school admission very well could come down to your odds at the two schools in Wisconsin; U of Wisconsin and Medical College of Wisconsin.
Last I checked(I don't have MSAR in front of me) Medical College of Wisconsin's median MCAT is around 32, and U of Wisconsin's MCAT is in the 32-33 range. Hence, 511-514 is a solid score to aim for. The higher above this you get, the more "reach" schools become feasible.