Chance me for MD/PhD Programs

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Looks solid to me. I would narrow the list down to 18-20 programs. Your current list is a shotgun blast at highly ranked programs, which works best when the individual probability of success (i.e. interview invite) is low, but your stats will probably garner several top-tier IIs. Look for PIs at each institution that you could envision yourself working with and rule out those places that don't have at least 4-5 PIs. If you end up cutting more than you are comfortable with, look more closely for programs that fit your research interests, even if they are lower ranked.
 
Can anyone comment on which programs would be in the lower tier for MSTP? It seems like every school on the list is quite highly ranked. Also, I have a strong interest in neurodegenerative disease, and I would like to keep this as my focus in graduate school. Anyone have any recommendations on schools strong in this field?
There are fully funded md/PhD programs that are not MSTP which would still be really good options. There is no “low tier” at this level of competition, only schools with broader tolerance for stats.

MSTPs with broader accepted stat distributions:
- UAB
- Iowa
- UColorado Denver
- U Buffalo
- U Rochester

That being said, you have a very strong profile and will probably have a very good cycle
 
Check the list of current (17-18) MSTPs
Here is the AAMC table B-8 of the 2017 cycle for MD/PhD programs

As indicated by Lucca, there are at least a dozen of fully funded MD/PhD programs who are not MSTP, particularly those with 4 or more first-year matriculants every year (critical mass is important), who have the same qualities in mentoring and program activities that you see in MSTPs...
Another way of looking at MD/PhD program quality is examining the distribution and funding of NIH F30 grants (check NIH Reporter tool for active F30 grants). You would be surprise that some programs are repeatedly selected (by Study Sections) as possessing high quality environment.
 
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