chances??

[confused77]

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Hello everyone. I am a non citizen IMG and will be needing visa. I plan on applying this year. My stats are
step 1-189/77 (first attempt)
step 2 ck -221/95 (first attempt)
step 2 cs - passed (first attempt)
graduated 2 months ago from med school.
2 months of electives in america in pediatrics at a university hospital with strong LORs. Worked on a paper as well at that hospital, which will be getting published soon.
Presently working on a research project in pediatrics in my home country.
3 publications in reputed internantional journals.
could someone please tell me about my chances in pediatrics since that is what i always wanted to do?
what are my chances of getting interviews with such a profile?? 😕

 

[confused77]

any reply would be appreciated.. please.

 

[Lizzy Wurtzel]

Just from published data on the match, i can tell you...

1) Independent applicants have terrible chance of matching if they only rank 1-2 programs; it jumps to about 50% if they rank 3-4; it jumps to 80-90% if they rank more than 8 schools.

2) Probability of match due to step 1 score is ~35%

3) Probability of match due to step 2 score is ~70%

- Based on the info you gave me that I can analyze objectively from published match data, I'd say if you interview/rank 3-4 schools with your stats you have about a 50% chance of matching. The match also publishes which schools don't fill all their spots. It might be a good idea to apply at a bunch of those schools and rank them.

Best of luck! I'm sure your LORs and research will bump you up a bit, but I'd still try to go on as many interviews as you can get.

 

[confused77]

thanks a lot Lizzy! also what do you think should be the avg number of programs i shud apply to?? Its tough to figure out which ones to apply to ..😕

 

[babel]

thanks a lot Lizzy! also what do you think should be the avg number of programs i shud apply to?? Its tough to figure out which ones to apply to ..😕

I would think 40-50? Also, I would go to the residencies webpages and look at where their residents are from - probably no point in applying to places that have not taken any IMG's over the last 3 years. And then you'll see other places that are entirely filled with IMG's (and/or AMG's and DO's); those would be your relative "safeties", and I'd make sure you apply to lots of those.

 

[Lizzy Wurtzel]

Yeah I was looking at some NRMP stats and it says the average residency program receives 800 applications. Multiple by 198 (number of residency programs) and divide by 2500 (number of applicants) and i remember it coming to 50-60 programs per applicant. I think that most US Seniors apply to much less than that (max average of 30) meaning IMG might be applying to around 80, but that's just speculation.

If your only goal is to match, NRMP or USMLE or one of those things publishes a list of schools that didn't fill all their spots and people scrambled into. Those would be good ones to appy to. Anything east of Cali, north of Texas, and west of the mississippi river would also give you a decent shot I think (except UColorado).

If you do your research, you could probably narrow down to 40 schools that are known to take IMG's, are not super competitive, and had problems filling there spots last year. But still, 40 schools for us US seniors is $1000.00 so I don't know if that's the same for you... if you can get it down to 30 it's only $450.00. That's my goal.

Hope that helps. Good luck!

Good luck!

 

[texas2011]

I think your estimation for cost might be a little high

Up to 10: $75
11-20: $8 each
21-30: $15 each
31 or more: $25 each

here is info from eras

30 programs would be 305 dollars, plus 70 bucks for usmle transcripts, and 70 more for comlex transcripts if your a DO total being 445 dollars

40 programs would be 250 more so total 695 dollars

oh and don't forget fee to nrmp of 65 dollars, but shouldn't be 1000 dollars

am i missing anything?

 

[babel]

Texas - I think your calculations are correct. Lizzy must have thought that to apply to 30 programs that it cost $15 each ($15 x 30 = $450), rather than $75 for the first 10 plus $80 for the next 10 plus $150 for the last 10. So not quite so bad.

 

[Lizzy Wurtzel]

Oh yeah, i thought that if you passed 30 schools, they penalized you and charged 25 PER school, not just for schools 31-40. Writing was vague. Thanks, I might just apply to 40 n0w