Changes Since CTO 2011? Please Weigh In.

[ishr]

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Charting the Outcomes listed the following averages for matched applicants:

Mean USMLE Step 1: 240
Mean USMLE Step 2: 245

the 2011 numbers were higher than 2009. since they publish biennially, i was wondering what people thought the stat averages for 2012 or 2013 will be? or more generally speaking, what the trend is? from casually talking to residents, they make it sound like 2010 was the height of rads competitiveness, but obviously what i heard suffers from small sample size and bias (they applied then and might think they're better than their successors even if that's not true). i'm a borderline applicant trying to figure out whether my chances are better or worse 2 years from 2011.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2011.pdf

 

[drizzt3117]

From what I can tell, this cycle will be more competitive than the last, but idk how it'll compare to 2011; I would guess it'd be similar, but who knows.

 

[acuknome]

I know over the last few years there have been unfilled radiology positions. You may find these two resources helpful.

http://www.nrmp.org/2012springmeeting.pdf
http://www.healthsciences.okstate.e...ts/unfilled programs last update 03192012.pdf

 

[cbtk18]

From what I can tell, this cycle will be more competitive than the last, .

What makes you say that?

 

[drizzt3117]

What makes you say that?

I'm a paid consultant for applicants; the volume is much higher this year at schools I'm familiar with than last. I'm guessing apps will be up 10-20%, which will eliminate the vast majority of those unmatched spots. It probably won't affect the us md match rate overly much, though.

 

[cowme]

how many schools do you have data from? It seems to me like you may just be drawing a conclusion based on your familiarity with a handful of schools. At our schools, the number of applicants is way down from last year.

 

[ishr]

From what I can tell, this cycle will be more competitive than the last, but idk how it'll compare to 2011; I would guess it'd be similar, but who knows.

so i deduce by what you're saying that 2012 was less competitive than 2011?

 

[drizzt3117]

how many schools do you have data from? It seems to me like you may just be drawing a conclusion based on your familiarity with a handful of schools. At our schools, the number of applicants is way down from last year.

About 25 so far, including most of the top 25.

 

[drizzt3117]

so i deduce by what you're saying that 2012 was less competitive than 2011?

Yes, in general.

 

[Asp]

drizzt has found a femoral pulse! Stop compressions! Radiology is alive once more!

 

[ishr]

About 25 so far, including most of the top 25.

well this information probably is not representative of the bulk of programs, since the top 25 are least likely to be impacted in terms of general trends. along the same lines as the top programs of any specialty will always attract top tier applicants regardless of the averages from the specialty as a whole. amirite?

 

[drizzt3117]

well this information probably is not representative of the bulk of programs, since the top 25 are least likely to be impacted in terms of general trends. along the same lines as the top programs of any specialty will always attract top tier applicants regardless of the averages from the specialty as a whole. amirite?

Last year hms had 4 ppl do rads, Penn had 3, ucsf had 5, Hopkins had 4. Usually they're at 10+. That greatly affects the application experience because that's 30 less people who would mostly be matching at top programs with a corresponding trickle down effect. There's far more variability in the top places than programs like cw, rfu, drexel, mcw and nymc who always put a lot of people into rads.