Charting Outcomes in the Match 2009

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That's surprising, although I will tell you that I went to a top 1/3 med school and out of about ten of us applying 3 didn't match. So it looks like that wasn't as far from the norm as I thought it was.
 
the stats are surprising. i didn't expect such a big jump from 2007 to 2009.
 
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I've never heard of "top third" med school status. I guess it beats having 30 "top ten" schools, though.
 
these are ridiculous numbers, just doesn't make any sense though. there is obvious uncertainty in this field, issues w/ crna's, etc but you still have an overwhelming number of top applicants applying for spots. is this controversial stuff just perpetuated on this board or are these real life issues. i dont see how so many qualified students would b entering a field that according to some on this board is in for a lot of stormy weather
 
that charting outcome doesn't seem to match what's written in their 2009 match charts, linked below.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

charting oucomes says that only 888 US seniors matched while the link above says that 1,110 US seniors matched.

also based on the 2009 charting outcomes only 1,067 out of 1,374 spots were filled and the 2009 match outcome chart states that 1,348 spots were filled out of 1,374.

So I am not sure who to believe. also a significant number of people's step scores were not available and thus a true average step score can't be calculated.

I am kind of hoping that we'll see a repeat of the 1995 match.. all the major characteristics are set in place, 1) Socialized health care is more of a threat than ever before, and that means major cuts in anesthesia salaries. 2) Job saturation is also present, check out the other thread. Starting salaries have dropped to low to mid 200's vs. high 200's to low 300's a few years ago, and partnership tracks are getting longer as well, today it's tough to find a 1 year partnership track. 3) the whole CRNA take over is more dangerous than ever, the state of California just opted out and is allowing CRNA's to practice without a direct anesthesiologists supervision, I am sure as the pro-nurse president has his ways more and more states will allow CRNAs to practice without direct supervision from an anesthesiologist.

So as someone who is applying for only anesthesia because I don't see myself doing anything else and don't really care that much about how much i'll be making, I hope that, the posers with high stats don't apply this year and that I am able to match into a solid program because of that.
 
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amherstguy said:
these are ridiculous numbers, just doesn't make any sense though. there is obvious uncertainty in this field, issues w/ crna's, etc but you still have an overwhelming number of top applicants applying for spots. is this controversial stuff just perpetuated on this board or are these real life issues. i dont see how so many qualified students would b entering a field that according to some on this board is in for a lot of stormy weather
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it's cause med students have very little idea of what the situation is actually like on the ground, even if the did 6 months of anesthesia during 4th year.
 
RussianJoo said:
that charting outcome doesn't seem to match what's written in their 2009 match charts, linked below.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

charting oucomes says that only 888 US seniors matched while the link above says that 1,110 US seniors matched.

also based on the 2009 charting outcomes only 1,067 out of 1,374 spots were filled and the 2009 match outcome chart states that 1,348 spots were filled out of 1,374.

So I am not sure who to believe. also a significant number of people's step scores were not available and thus a true average step score can't be calculated.

I am kind of hoping that we'll see a repeat of the 1995 match.. all the major characteristics are set in place, 1) Socialized health care is more of a threat than ever before, and that means major cuts in anesthesia salaries. 2) Job saturation is also present, check out the other thread. Starting salaries have dropped to low to mid 200's vs. high 200's to low 300's a few years ago, and partnership tracks are getting longer as well, today it's tough to find a 1 year partnership track. 3) the whole CRNA take over is more dangerous than ever, the state of California just opted out and is allowing CRNA's to practice without a direct anesthesiologists supervision, I am sure as the pro-nurse president has his ways more and more states will allow CRNAs to practice without direct supervision from an anesthesiologist.

So as someone who is applying for only anesthesia because I don't see myself doing anything else and don't really care that much about how much i'll be making, I hope that, the posers with high stats don't apply this year and that I am able to match into a solid program because of that.
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you don't really care that much how much you'll be making?
spoken like a true med student. once you see how much you have to be workin, you'll care how much you'll be getting paid for that labor.
 
amherstguy said:
i dont see how so many qualified students would b entering a field that according to some on this board is in for a lot of stormy weather
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I graduated medical school just a few months ago, and it was extremely rare to meet a classmate who was even remotely in tune with the politics of medicine, much less their specific field of interest.
 
Bertleman, I guess I'm just trying to say that I went to a decent school, not an elite one but it has a good rep. I think it was top third in one of those us news and world report rankings (which I honestly don't think means a whole lot). I was pretty surprised at how the match turned out for us, based on past matches our class did worse than previous classes. I thought it was just a fluke, but those numbers make it look like a pretty commonplace outcome at us schools.
 
Jeff05 said:
you don't really care that much how much you'll be making?
spoken like a true med student. once you see how much you have to be workin, you'll care how much you'll be getting paid for that labor.
Click to expand...

What i meant was that salaries aren't driving my decision to become an anesthesiologist, and even when our salaries get cut to 1/3 of what they are right now because of new reimbursement rates secondary to socialized health care I would still pick this specialty unlike some other guys out there that don't really care what they do as long as they get paid well.
 
RussianJoo said:
What i meant was that salaries aren't driving my decision to become an anesthesiologist, and even when our salaries get cut to 1/3 of what they are right now because of new reimbursement rates secondary to socialized health care I would still pick this specialty unlike some other guys out there that don't really care what they do as long as they get paid well.
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NOTHING in medicine pays well enough that one would chose to do it JUST for the dough. you gotta get through your 50+ hours somehow.
 
Jeff05 said:
NOTHING in medicine pays well enough that one would chose to do it JUST for the dough. you gotta get through your 50+ hours somehow.
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whatever, this is pointless. how about discussing the differences in numbers between the two 2009 Match outcomes posted by the NRMP? seems a little strange to me.
 
One thing that sticks out is the number of applicants with long ranking lists that did not match(page 20). 69 US seniors had 16 or more ranks and did not match. In 2007 almost everyone with rank lists greater than 10 matched. wth?

Another interesting thing is on page 24, a US grad with a step 1 score of 200 had a better probability of matching than an independent grad that scored over 240. wth?
 
im not sure what to take from these statistics except for the fact that they make me very nervous as a 4th year DO student applying for gas this year. usmle and comlex II this week probably arent helping with the nerves either.
 
RussianJoo said:
whatever, this is pointless. how about discussing the differences in numbers between the two 2009 Match outcomes posted by the NRMP? seems a little strange to me.
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your dissection of match stats is pointless, unless you consider all the variables and calculate your probability of matching AND THEN actually decide not to go into anesthesia/apply for a different specialty if that probability is unfavorable.

the 1995 situation was different: things were ACTUALLY HORRIBLE. right now they are just POTENTIALLY bad. since most medical students have no idea what goes on in actual practice most will not decide to avoid a specialty until the specialty is ACTIVELY crappy. so i wouldn't count on competitiveness of anesthesia decreasing this year.
 
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dr daddy o said:
One thing that sticks out is the number of applicants with long ranking lists that did not match(page 20). 69 US seniors had 16 or more ranks and did not match. In 2007 almost everyone with rank lists greater than 10 matched. wth?

Another interesting thing is on page 24, a US grad with a step 1 score of 200 had a better probability of matching than an independent grad that scored over 240. wth?
Click to expand...

none of these statistics adjusted.
the people with the much longer rank lists were likely the weaker candidates - which was the actual case of them not matching, not their rank list size.
 
Jeff05 said:
none of these statistics adjusted.
the people with the much longer rank lists were likely the weaker candidates - which was the actual case of them not matching, not their rank list size.
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree that weaker candidates interview more. I wouldn't think that a weak applicant could even get 16 interviews. The point I was making was that in 2007, interviewing at 10 or more places all but guaranteed you a spot. This was not the case in 2009. 169 US seniors had 10 or more ranks and did not match in 2009, that's compared to 2 for 2007.

Anyway you look at it anesthesia was more competitive last year.

Step 1 scores up 5 pts,
step 2 scores up 8 pts.
% AOA up 4.2 pts
 
This part of the PDF is very concerning "US Allopathic Seniors - 888 matched, 306 not matched"

That unmatched rate seems almost TOO high for anesthesia. Yes, it is getting more competitive, but I always thought almost every one will match at a residency, although maybe not their top choice.

It is also hard to believe anesthesia has a lower match rate than ophtho
 
yancantcook said:
This part of the PDF is very concerning "US Allopathic Seniors - 888 matched, 306 not matched"

That unmatched rate seems almost TOO high for anesthesia. Yes, it is getting more competitive, but I always thought almost every one will match at a residency, although maybe not their top choice.

It is also hard to believe anesthesia has a lower match rate than ophtho
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Agreed - We must be missing something here. The overall number matched seems way low and the US Grad unmatched number is way high...did they not include advanced positions in the analysis or something?
 
Gimlet said:
Agreed - We must be missing something here. The overall number matched seems way low and the US Grad unmatched number is way high...did they not include advanced positions in the analysis or something?
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just saw this charting outcomes this morning and it scared me...something is off...

if you look at this document
http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

you will see that us seniors matched into 612 pgy1 positions and 498 pgy2 positions..a total of 1193 applied for pgy1 and 1140 for pgy2..obviously those numbers applying arent exclusive (like if u apply for pgy 2 doesnt mean u dont apply for pgy 1)..so lets say 1200ish students applied...612+498=1110 matched and about 90-100 didnt match..that seems more like it...

otherwise the 74% match rate is ridiculous..dont know where they got that...
 
Jeff05 said:
you don't really care that much how much you'll be making?
spoken like a true med student. once you see how much you have to be workin, you'll care how much you'll be getting paid for that labor.
Click to expand...

A med student who doesn't care how much she'll earn is like a primip who doesn't think she'll want an epidural.

In both cases, screaming and mind-changing are coming ...
 
Gimlet said:
Agreed - We must be missing something here. The overall number matched seems way low and the US Grad unmatched number is way high...did they not include advanced positions in the analysis or something?
Click to expand...

i agree gimlet. 74% is unheard of. but there were people in my class who did not match anesthesiology. I guess our year (2009) drew more competitive applicants than previous years. It would be interesting to see the 2011 data 🙂

-----this is just like the stock market 😀 i wonder if we could use finance equations to analyze the match. let see..what is the beta....hmmmm...

back to icu/ward in sept/oct, will be absent for a while. good luck to all 2010 applicants! PS: icu is not that bad, actually preferred it to wards, for future interns - it is good to start on ICU! you'll be very good at procedures, handling deaths, vents, codes and acute symptoms managements, even palliative care (don't hesitate to use their valuable consult!) ----->everything else will be very easy afterward.
 
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lfesiam said:
i agree gimlet. 74% is unheard of. but there were people in my class who went did not match anesthesiology this year. I guess our year (2009) drew more competitive applicants than previous years. It would be interesting to see the 2011 data 🙂

-----this is just like the stock market 😀 i wonder if we could use some the finance equations and adapt it to analyze the match. let see..what is the beta....hmmmm...

back to icu/ward in sept/oct, will be absent for a while. good luck to all 2010 applicants! PS: icu is not that bad, actually preferred it to wards, for future interns - it is good to start on ICU! i think you will be a step ahead in terms of procedures and acute symptoms managements, ----->everything else will be very easy afterward.
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at my school (top 50) i think we were 16 out of 16 with the match last year...theres a lot of uncertainty with match this year..but i think 2011 is when you may see a drop in competitiveness because that is when i think the health care picture will become more clear..
 
80% match rate above 240. Hmmmmmm. Pretty low considering last years numbers were like 90% match rate above a 200.
 
I think it's a good thing for the specialty that there is increased interest and competition to get in. The specialty is attracting the best and brightest.
 
lord_jeebus said:
Maybe last year's paranoid "Anesthesia is getting more competitive, help!" MS4s were right! :laugh:
Click to expand...

serie_touche.jpg
 
Starting salaries are not going down. If anything, they are going up. I know of people who got jobs in NYC starting at 300k+ with 2 year partnership tracks THIS year, with partnership worth a heck of a lot of money.

Have friends interviewing in west/midwest for starting positions anywhere from 300-500k starting, some in major metro areas.

Market is fine.

RussianJoo said:
that charting outcome doesn't seem to match what's written in their 2009 match charts, linked below.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

charting oucomes says that only 888 US seniors matched while the link above says that 1,110 US seniors matched.

also based on the 2009 charting outcomes only 1,067 out of 1,374 spots were filled and the 2009 match outcome chart states that 1,348 spots were filled out of 1,374.

So I am not sure who to believe. also a significant number of people's step scores were not available and thus a true average step score can't be calculated.

I am kind of hoping that we'll see a repeat of the 1995 match.. all the major characteristics are set in place, 1) Socialized health care is more of a threat than ever before, and that means major cuts in anesthesia salaries. 2) Job saturation is also present, check out the other thread. Starting salaries have dropped to low to mid 200's vs. high 200's to low 300's a few years ago, and partnership tracks are getting longer as well, today it's tough to find a 1 year partnership track. 3) the whole CRNA take over is more dangerous than ever, the state of California just opted out and is allowing CRNA's to practice without a direct anesthesiologists supervision, I am sure as the pro-nurse president has his ways more and more states will allow CRNAs to practice without direct supervision from an anesthesiologist.

So as someone who is applying for only anesthesia because I don't see myself doing anything else and don't really care that much about how much i'll be making, I hope that, the posers with high stats don't apply this year and that I am able to match into a solid program because of that.
Click to expand...
 
Holy moly....

This year was ridiculous! Almost all the specialties board score averages look like they are on steroids. OBGYN and Gen surgery stood out to me as specialties that look less competitive than 07 charting outcomes. But everything else is crazy inflated. Thank god I matched this year.

Anesthesia didn't have super high board score averages, but it def. had one of the worst percentages of matched applicants. Scary to look at in retrospect.
 
RussianJoo said:
that charting outcome doesn't seem to match what's written in their 2009 match charts, linked below.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

charting oucomes says that only 888 US seniors matched while the link above says that 1,110 US seniors matched.

also based on the 2009 charting outcomes only 1,067 out of 1,374 spots were filled and the 2009 match outcome chart states that 1,348 spots were filled out of 1,374..
Click to expand...

A miscalculated factor. Charting outcomes only includes "preferred specialty" applicants. This means it only includes applicants that choose Anesthesia as there Primary rank.

So lets say Orthopod guy with 250 ranks 6 ortho spots first, then anesthesia spot 7 and matches in anesthesia... charting outcomes will not include him as a matched anesthesia applicant. It will include him as an unmatched Ortho applicant. This is where that disperaty lies.

Of the 1110 US applicants matched, 888 of those matched applicants ranked anesthesia first. The other 222 spots went to US seniors who went unmatched in other competitive fields (Rads/ortho/optho/derm/ect.) but matched in anesthesia as a backup.

Hope that clarifies.
 
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RxBoy said:
A miscalculated factor. Charting outcomes only includes "preferred specialty" applicants. This means it only includes applicants that choose Anesthesia as there Primary rank.

So lets say Orthopod guy with 250 ranks 6 ortho spots first, then anesthesia spot 7 and matches in anesthesia... charting outcomes will not include him as a matched anesthesia applicant. It will include him as an unmatched Ortho applicant. This is where that disperaty lies.

Of the 1110 US applicants matched, 888 of those matched applicants ranked anesthesia first. The other 222 spots went to US seniors who went unmatched in other competitive fields (Rads/ortho/optho/derm/ect.) but matched in anesthesia as a backup.

Hope that clarifies.
Click to expand...

nice clarification Rxboy 👍 how is your year going bud?
 
RxBoy said:
A miscalculated factor. Charting outcomes only includes "preferred specialty" applicants. This means it only includes applicants that choose Anesthesia as there Primary rank.

So lets say Orthopod guy with 250 ranks 6 ortho spots first, then anesthesia spot 7 and matches in anesthesia... charting outcomes will not include him as a matched anesthesia applicant. It will include him as an unmatched Ortho applicant. This is where that disperaty lies.

Of the 1110 US applicants matched, 888 of those matched applicants ranked anesthesia first. The other 222 spots went to US seniors who went unmatched in other competitive fields (Rads/ortho/optho/derm/ect.) but matched in anesthesia as a backup.
Click to expand...

Emailed Julia Raether, Director of Research, NRMP. She gave the exact same explanation as RxBoy.

1. The numbers are correct.
2. September just got interesting.

Good luck.
 
2005
Matched Rate 93%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 218

2007
Matched Rate 94%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 220

2009
Matched Rate 74%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 230

However.... NRMP took down the 2009 charting the match outcome. "This report has been removed temporarily. Please check back shortly for a revised edition."
 
so 15-20% of last year's anesthesia matches were just backup plans? or am i not understanding this correctly
 
wmc24 said:
so 15-20% of last year's anesthesia matches were just backup plans? or am i not understanding this correctly
Click to expand...

Yeah, that is weird and, if true, very unfortunate for the people who showed dedication to anesthesiology throughout med school and applied to it as their primary choice. Also unfortunate for the field, since I doubt people who match anesthesiology as their backup will generally be as good of advocates for the profession down the road (not that many anesthesiologitsts have historically been great advocates themselves).
 
New email from Director of Research:

"...We reviewed the report very carefully and found an error that resulted in inflated numbers of "unmatched" applicants for anesthesiology and several other specialties. We will update the report ASAP..."

The numbers were fudged.
 
:scared:NOOOOOOO They took it down! Anyone have a copy they can send me?
 
Gimlet said:
Yeah, that is weird and, if true, very unfortunate for the people who showed dedication to anesthesiology throughout med school and applied to it as their primary choice. Also unfortunate for the field, since I doubt people who match anesthesiology as their backup will generally be as good of advocates for the profession down the road (not that many anesthesiologitsts have historically been great advocates themselves).
Click to expand...

yeah thats what i was thinking. it is all well and good to see step scores rise in any field, but not if they are skyrocketing due to someone who misses the derm match or plastics and wants a backup. i take that as a huge slap in the face. obviously, no one is gonna admit they missed a highly competitive match and landed anesthesia as a backup, but these findings are very interesting.
 
Sdp said:
New email from Director of Research:

"...We reviewed the report very carefully and found an error that resulted in inflated numbers of "unmatched" applicants for anesthesiology and several other specialties. We will update the report ASAP..."

The numbers were fudged.
Click to expand...

Hell to the yeah! I knew something wasn't right about those numbers. Chalk one up for SDN Anesthesiology on bringing it to their attention - nice work Sdp....
 
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Gimlet said:
Yeah, that is weird and, if true, very unfortunate for the people who showed dedication to anesthesiology throughout med school and applied to it as their primary choice. Also unfortunate for the field, since I doubt people who match anesthesiology as their backup will generally be as good of advocates for the profession down the road (not that many anesthesiologitsts have historically been great advocates themselves).
Click to expand...

I agree. Now what I stated above may very well be plausible. But the one thing that strikes me is that 69 US seniors had 16 or more ranks and did not match. Maybe 3, pushing would be 10. But 69 is just insanely high. I think there is some type of error. There has to be.
 
RxBoy said:
A miscalculated factor. Charting outcomes only includes "preferred specialty" applicants. This means it only includes applicants that choose Anesthesia as there Primary rank.

So lets say Orthopod guy with 250 ranks 6 ortho spots first, then anesthesia spot 7 and matches in anesthesia... charting outcomes will not include him as a matched anesthesia applicant. It will include him as an unmatched Ortho applicant. This is where that disperaty lies.

Of the 1110 US applicants matched, 888 of those matched applicants ranked anesthesia first. The other 222 spots went to US seniors who went unmatched in other competitive fields (Rads/ortho/optho/derm/ect.) but matched in anesthesia as a backup.

Hope that clarifies.
Click to expand...


thank you for the clarification.
 
lfesiam said:
2005
Matched Rate 93%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 218

2007
Matched Rate 94%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 220

2009
Matched Rate 74%
Mean Step 1 of U.S. Matched = 230

However.... NRMP took down the 2009 charting the match outcome. "This report has been removed temporarily. Please check back shortly for a revised edition."
Click to expand...


2009
US Seniors Matched Rate 92%
Mean Step I of US Seniors Matched = 224

whew, that's more like it! I would've panicked seeing that 74% match rate if I had to go through it this year.

Thanks for the link Chemist.
 
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