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I don't understand this obsession with where the applicant will rank the program. There is no way of knowing if the applicant even has 20 interviews, and the whole purpose of the algorithm is rank according to preference. So if you have me as your number 1 preference, rank me as such, and if I have you as my 20th preference , there is still a significant chance that I will match there, because maybe other programs hated me or know me better to rank me lower.I'm late to the party, like usual.
Sorry for the double tap here. I'm still not convinced there was any interview hoarding. I think what's likely to have happened is that 1) programs interviewed more people, either by interviewing more people per day or adding more days; 2) Applicants went on same/slightly more interviews, either because there were more slots and because they cancelled less. The net result will be overall the same. If the difference was big we'd probably see a change -- imagine that programs and applicants both doubled their interviews. Everyone's rank list would be twice as long. All the spots would fill the same way, in fact we'd expect a smaller unfill rate overall. The net result would be that people would match, measured as a percentage, in the same part of their list. Measured as an absolute value, it would be lower. But it's really the same result (but will feel worse, if we use "matched at #1" as a metric). Since I think the difference was probably only 10-15%, I don't think it will make a big enough difference to show. We will see when we see the data -- I may eat my hat.
Pointing out that if your friend matched and saw a program they ranked in SOAP, then that means they probably matched above this program (unless the program didn't rank them). If your friend didn't match, then the program didn't rank them.
This will be the most interesting thing to come out of this COVID mess. I don't think the AAMC can force anything to happen -- residency programs are separate businesses whom can recruit any way they want. Unless the ACGME decides to intervene and somehow make it a program requirement (which I expect would be very unpopular) it will likely be program choice. In a world where everyone is virtual, it's no problem. When "top" programs go back to in person, everyone's going to want to keep up with the Joneses...
Actually, it's not "nonsense" per se. If I knew you're going to rank me #20 on your list, I wouldn't bother inviting you. Sure, you like to have the interview and one more rank because it marginally increases your chance of matching. But it's mostly a waste of our resources. Of course, there's often no way for us to know. That's how some programs end up using (perhaps) meaningless metrics -- like any connection to geographic area, etc.
The data so far highly suggests there's no "slide up" effect. For that to happen, there would need to be extreme interview hoarding. Top applicants would need to get most of the interviews, mid-tier applicants would get a decent number, and a good slice of applicants would need to get few/none. Then, top programs would fill with the top applicants as they always do. Higher / mid tier programs would have also interviewed these superstars, get none of them, and fall lower on their lists -- and those mid tier applicants would slide up relative to prior years. And then a whole bunch of low tier programs would be unfilled, along with the unmatched low tier applicants. The SOAP stats don't support this at all.
It still might be possible -- if the distribution of filled slots is different. If because of virtual inteviewing programs that usually consider IMG candidates decided to more strongly consider DO candidates, then it's possible that DO candidates would "match better" and IMG would "match worse". I have no idea if that's the case -- this is not based on any real data. But I doubt it.
I guess it's actually possible that the match results will be better this year -- that on average candidates will match higher on their lists. As people go on more interviews, they get exposed to more programs. It's possible that you might fall in love with a program that you otherwise might not have considered. If that happens to enough people, everyone might do better.
I think there's too many unknowns, and no matter what the data ultimately show, you can probably spin it to tell whatever story you want. The only story that is certainly not true is that the match this year was a disaster. It seems to have turned out similarly to prior years. Although I certainly recognize that if you have not matched, it certainly seems like a disaster.
I did not receive a lot of love from mid tiers, even though my application would probably put me above IQRs in terms of competitiveness on every metric that is measured and probably those that are not measured for my specialty. Yet my application was geared towards mid-tiers because of geography and cost of living. Its so odd to me that programs would yield protect a good applicant because they ASSUME the applicant wont rank them highly. That is non-sensical. the algorithm of the match already assumes that you are displaying true preference in your rank, not " true preference based on what i think the applicant will be displaying"
It is quite possible that if programs started interviewing according to true preference and ranking as such that they may end up with better applicants matching there even with programs falling lower on their rank lists, compared to playing these what if mind games.
This whole concept of " we matched top of our list" is asinine and probably not optimizing programs for the best applicants.