Comparing the effects of COVID-19 on the 2020/2021 cycle vs the 2021/2022 cycle

[KnightDoc]

At first, I read the registration increase as perhaps owing itself to those being canceled in March and April, therefore the number of test-takers who would have normally taken it during then registered on May 6 instead which increased the usual number, though I could be wrong of course.

No, you are definitely correct about why there are so many registered in such a compressed period of time. But that still doesn't explain how there are 78,000 registered through the balance of the testing year (end of September), PLUS however many it took it from January through March, as compared to prior years (AAMC reports in multi-year periods -- 206,000 took it from 2016-18, which is a little less than 70,000/yr).

Definite uptick this year. The question is why? Because people have a lot of free time this summer to study, so they moved their test date up but aren't applying this year? Because people are accelerating their test to get in on the shorter exam? Because, as @Goro said, the economy is tanking and people are looking for something to do? Who knows? Time will tell!

The only thing we know for sure is that it's going to be next to impossible for anyone to go from not even really thinking about attending med school in 2021 just this past February to being a viable, successful candidate this cycle, so any increase in testing or applications attributable to that will just be noise, and the "increased competition" and lower admission rates due to that just won't be meaningful to anyone who has been preparing for this cycle for the past few years.

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[CorgiLoaf]

Here's an article with actual numbers: Medical Schools Grapple With Challenges for the Coming Year

In the first 3 days, 29,245 applications were initiated as compared to 19,467 from last year. This could stem from a bunch of factors.

Maybe the new traffic rules made schools more reliant on the WL, and WL'd applicants are starting a new application just in case.
Maybe being quarantined at home gave people more time to start their apps earlier.
Or maybe COVID-19 inspired 10,000 people into pursuing medicine in the past few months.

The 2008 financial crisis saw a ~4k increase in applicants for 2009-2010. A 10k jump this year would be insane and unprecedented

 

[Maimonides1]

Regardless of the true numbers that exceeded 78K+ wether people who sadly died from Covid19, or applicants who are shockingly dying to take a crack at MCAT this summer, I agree with @KnightDoc that it takes a lot more engineering time and effort to produce a strong well rounded med school application to be successful for any cycle!

I will not necessarily buy the “diversion to medicine” argument in economical downturn in this scenario, even though there is some truth to this and we have witnessed such phenomenon in the last recession, but I am afraid the economy in the post Covid19 left no profession “recession immune” when you see 1.4 million healthcare workers loosing their job, Kaiser reporting 1.1 billions$ loss this quarter, HMS 65 millions$ loss, numerous big and small rural hospitals struggling and physicians are loosing their jobs due to equity firms business decisions!

I am still waiting to see the 50% increase in applications if this is a one day measure or it will be the total number of applicants in this cycle, there will be a definite shift in the bright undergraduate career choices wether to a or far away from medicine in this coming years.., that will ultimately depends on how we deal with is pandemic and future public health challenges.

 

[Maimonides1]

Congratulations!

This is exactly the applicant’s profile and life story with innate call to duty to serve in medicine we always look for in future physicians.., not those who engineer an application to check boxes in hastily timetable and change their career choices based on whatever deemed economically more viable for that time!!

 

[KnightDoc]

Just food for thought, I had a solid application to apply to go straight through and matriculate after college but I really had an itch to “get some other things out of my system” so I delayed my application to do Americorp or Jesuit volunteer corps and ended up doing Teach for America for two years. I had already had enough shadowing and service hours so that’s really all I did for the two years. I’m on the waitlist for my top choice but am fortunate to have had several acceptances. If COVID would’ve hit, my TFA position would have been more up in the air and I probably would’ve felt more pressure with all the uncertainty in life to just apply right through instead. So there may be some very qualified applicants that had opportunities lined up they were excited about for a gap year, but now those are not guaranteed (e.g. Peace Corps cancelled) so they are applying right through or the only thing they needed was some more time to study for the MCAT but with sitting at home 24/7 they had time to check that off and apply, while before that maybe they were prioritizing enjoying college activities and stuff. I’m not saying it will or won’t be more competitive, but just one potential reason for the numbers increasing and some of these applicants still being very much viable candidates

Excellent points, and you would have been a great candidate whenever you applied!!!

The question remains, however, whether there are 10-20,000 people like you who are now going to apply instead of taking gap years, and whether they have a good enough application without them. Recent admission statistics suggest the answer is no, and that most of these people probably need the gap year(s).

Without them, they will be competing against all of the people who are not accelerating an application and have been planning to apply this year all along. If the preliminary numbers hold up, in the fall of 2021 we'll all be talking about how crazy difficult the last cycle was, with 70,000 people competing for 20,000 spots, but that won't be the true story because most of the additional 20,000 people applying never really had a shot against the 20,000 ultimately successful people, many of whom will have already completed gap years, so they will really just be adding to the number of those rejected. Of course, some will be successful, but they will be so far and few between that they won't meaningfully change the odds of admission for the 50,000 who were applying anyway. Certainly not by choosing to do this in the last two months without planning on it for the past two plus years.

They'll just end up being reapplicants in 2022, which is when they should have applied all along, except now they'll have whatever baggage comes with being a reapplicant. But at least they will have been able to experience the new, once in a lifetime shortened MCAT, assuming they were adequately prepared to take it. Otherwise, that will be yet another self inflicted wound they will have to deal with.

 

[Maimonides1]

After listening to last week AAMC press conference..,
It will be interesting to see if medical schools will increase their enrollment seats to the maximum allowed..
in response to anticipated huge surge of applications for year 2020-2021, fueled by lack of pandemic responders on top of chronic physician shortage.., or they will stay restrained by the teaching logistics in middle of pandemic on top of anemic growth in GME funding for extra postgraduate training positions still await the approval of out of touch congress?!

To their credit they raised class sizes of medical schools by over 30% between 2002-2019 to meet the AAMC set goals back then!

 

[KnightDoc]

After listening to last week AAMC press conference..,
It will be interesting to see if medical schools will increase their enrollment seats to the maximum allowed..
in response to anticipated huge surge of applications for year 2020-2021, fueled by lack of pandemic responders on top of chronic physician shortage.., or they will stay restrained by the teaching logistics in middle of pandemic on top of anemic growth in GME funding for extra postgraduate training positions still await the approval of out of touch congress?!

To their credit they raised class sizes of medical schools by over 30% between 2002-2019 to meet the AAMC set goals back then!

???? I don't understand what a potential "huge surge of applications" has to do with anything. There was already a huge imbalance of qualified applicants to number of available seats, as evidenced by the 40% overall accept rate and the large number of people who are never called off a WL each year.

 

[Maimonides1]

???? I don't understand what a potential "huge surge of applications" has to do with anything. There was already a huge imbalance of qualified applicants to number of available seats, as evidenced by the 40% overall accept rate and the large number of people who are never called off a WL each year.

You assume the none matriculating 60% are all qualified applicants..!

There is 25-30 % of the applicant pool each year reportedly are not even close and considered automatic rejects.
There is ?% residual reapplicant pool that stays in the bottom pile without movement unless there is fundamental change in their app.
Only 14-15K of the apps of each year carry the 3.79+ GPA mark.
Roughly 10-12K of the apps each year get submitted with 510+ MCAT.

Starting an app on May 4 is free, submitting one on May 28 and beyond will be entered on record as First/Re applicant and requires the necessary fees!

We will wait to see the real numbers till the end of this cycle and determine its competitiveness!

 

[KnightDoc]

You assume the none matriculating 60% are all qualified applicants..!

There is 25-30 % of the applicant pool each year reportedly are not even close and considered automatic rejects.
There is ?% residual reapplicant pool that stays in the bottom pile without movement unless there is fundamental change in their app.
Only 14-15K of the apps of each year carry the 3.79+ GPA mark.
Roughly 10-12K of the apps each year get submitted with 510+ MCAT.

Starting an app on May 4 is free, submitting one on May 28 and beyond will be entered on record as First/Re applicant and requires the necessary fees!

We will wait to see the real numbers till the end of this cycle and determine its competitiveness!

No, I am just assuming that more than 40% of the pool is highly qualified (i.e., that SOME of the 60% are well qualified, not all!). I am also assuming that most of whatever surge occurs will not be well qualified due to the difficulty of throwing together a competitive application at the last minute due to an economic downturn or a suddenly shorter MCAT.

Basically, I just don't understand your point about increased applications, a pandemic and a chronic physician shortage leading to an increase in enrollment, because there is already a supply/demand imbalance that could be addressed by increased enrollment if the schools were in a position to accommodate it, with or without a surge in applications next year.

 

[CorgiLoaf]

You assume the none matriculating 60% are all qualified applicants..!

There is 25-30 % of the applicant pool each year reportedly are not even close and considered automatic rejects.
There is ?% residual reapplicant pool that stays in the bottom pile without movement unless there is fundamental change in their app.
Only 14-15K of the apps of each year carry the 3.79+ GPA mark.
Roughly 10-12K of the apps each year get submitted with 510+ MCAT.

Starting an app on May 4 is free, submitting one on May 28 and beyond will be entered on record as First/Re applicant and requires the necessary fees!

We will wait to see the real numbers till the end of this cycle and determine its competitiveness!

Wow, I didn't realize this until I actually looked at the AAMC stats. A 510 and above placed you in the top 33.74% (assuming a completely normal distribution) of applicants for the 2019-2020 cycle.

~35,000 people applied with <510. Kinda puts into perspective how biased SDN is.

 

[OfMiceAndWomen]

Just got off an info session with Perelman adcoms. They said "the plan at this time is to do a virtual interview season" this fall. They are preparing for 100% virtual interviews. I anticipate most med schools will follow suit.

 

[squids82]

Just got off an info session with Perelman adcoms. They said "the plan at this time is to do a virtual interview season" this fall. They are preparing for 100% virtual interviews. I anticipate most med schools will follow suit.

Could this mean that more interviews could possibly be offered as faculty would not have to devote as much time to the full day experience?

@Goro @LizzyM

 

[KnightDoc]

Could this mean that more interviews could possibly be offered as faculty would not have to devote as much time to the full day experience?

@Goro @LizzyM

Other than tours led by students and lunch, what makes you think the experience (interview, information sessions, etc.) would take any less time? Why would they want to interview more people if their yield isn't going down or their available seats aren't going up? More interviews = more work for them. Isn't the whole process about whatever is best for them, as opposed to what might be best for us (seller's market)???

P.S. On the NYU board this past year, since their yield went way up in response to free tuition, people were bitching about how they didn't REDUCE the number of IIs, because now their percent of IIs that turn into As is ridiculously low!

 

[squids82]

Other than tours led by students and lunch, what makes you think the experience (interview, information sessions, etc.) would take any less time? Why would they want to interview more people if their yield isn't going down or their available seats aren't going up? More interviews = more work for them. Isn't the whole process about whatever is best for them, as opposed to what might be best for us (seller's market)???

P.S. On the NYU board this past year, since their yield went way up in response to free tuition, people were bitching about how they didn't REDUCE the number of IIs, because now their percent of IIs that turn into As is ridiculously low!

That's true, my angle was coming more from ignorance of faculty duties outside of the interviews on the interview days haha

 

[KnightDoc]

That's true, my angle was coming more from ignorance of faculty duties outside of the interviews on the interview days haha

I get it. It's just that after a year on SDN, hearing the adcoms repeat over and over how we are all just fungible cogs in their MD manufacturing machine, I have developed a healthy cynicism that helps me see things through their eyes instead of ours. And I don't knock them for saying this. They are just being honest, and I, for one, really appreciate the honesty. They go out of their way and volunteer their time to help us, and there is no reason not to take what they say in this regard at face value.

The number of IIs is calibrated to how many people they need to fill their classes with the best available candidates, plus build up a healthy reserve from which to draw (WL), allowing for slippage due to yield and the inevitable number of people they won't want to join their class after meeting them. They would never be so altruistic as to open it up to more people than they need, just because they might have some time if the online process took a little less time than in person, if that meant taking them away from whatever else they could be doing. Keep in mind that they teach, practice medicine, perform research, etc.

More interviews than necessary is just more work for them, since other than the folks at the very top of their classes, the rest of us that they admit are more or less interchangeable to them. Interviewing more people and placing more people on a WL, never to be called off of it, would ultimately just be a waste of everyone's time, even though on the margins it might allow for a few people to maybe be admitted who otherwise wouldn't have been interviewed, at the expense of some other people who won't be admitted, all of whom the school would be equally happy having attend.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

How about people with multiple interviews doing most of them since there is no cost or travel involved?

 

[Maimonides1]

No, I am just assuming that more than 40% of the pool is highly qualified (i.e., that SOME of the 60% are well qualified, not all!). I am also assuming that most of whatever surge occurs will not be well qualified due to the difficulty of throwing together a competitive application at the last minute due to an economic downturn or a suddenly shorter MCAT.

Basically, I just don't understand your point about increased applications, a pandemic and a chronic physician shortage leading to an increase in enrollment, because there is already a supply/demand imbalance that could be addressed by increased enrollment if the schools were in a position to accommodate it, with or without a surge in applications next year.

I agree with most of your assumptions not all.. , as I believe there is still a qualified applicants backlog might come forward in this cycle..,
Whatever increases medical schools can offer in single cycle is minuscule without budgetary and congressional long term commitments for such societal needs!

 

[openstage]

I understand the possible need for virtual tours and online interviews this year, but I think that's really too bad. Even the most mediocre of locations can produce slick videos and 360 VR walk throughs. If we are expected to spend 4 years and 250k + in debt, I would want the most honest and real view of a program. One benefit from in person trips this year was talking to students to feel the vibe, and gather "unfiltered info," away from the student ambassadors and tours. You also can get a better feel for the city, neighborhood and community in person.

If I had an interview online, I'd probably still visit the area for a day or two to check it out. Or maybe if accepted, like a self made second look? Assuming that was safe to do and allowed by CDC guidelines.

 

[KnightDoc]

How about people with multiple interviews doing most of them since there is no cost or travel involved?

Is this going to increase the number of schools they can attend? If not, it won't make a bit of difference, other than, for some people at the top, to possibly hold more As and create a little more WL movement when they inevitably withdraw. It's not like before the people with multiple IIs dropped one that would have been their only A due to cost and travel.

 

[KnightDoc]

I agree with most of your assumptions not all.. , as I believe there is still a qualified applicants backlog might come forward in this cycle..,
Whatever increases medical schools can offer in single cycle is minuscule without budgetary and congressional long term commitments for such societal needs!

But, is there a backlog of qualified applicants that weren't planning on applying in February and who are suddenly going to throw in a successful application now due to coronavirus? That seems highly unlikely to happen on a scale large enough to move the needle on the relative odds of success for the 50,000 people who were applying anyway (i.e., if an additional 20,000 people apply this cycle who weren't applying before the pandemic, their success rate should be close to 0% while the original 50,000 applying will have the same 40% success rate as in prior years -- the top line will show a 28% success rate, and everyone will comment on how much more competitive it became due to coronavirus, but that won't be true because it will be comprised of two separate, distinct success rates, one of which didn't change at all).

There is nothing wrong with the latecomers other than the fact that they will be competing with people who have years of preparing with the ECs, post-baccs, grades, MCATs, etc. that many of the last minute folks don't even know about, and, even if they do, have no real chance to have due to the lock down. If they really want to be doctors, 40% of them will be successful in a future cycle after they have had the opportunity to produce a competitive application. It just won't be now as they rush to become MDs due to the perceived increased need (the crisis will be over long before they would have graduated had they been accepted), or their looking for a safe place the ride out the economic downturn.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

Is this going to increase the number of schools they can attend? If not, it won't make a bit of difference, other than, for some people at the top, to possibly hold more As and create a little more WL movement when they inevitably withdraw. It's not like before the people with multiple IIs dropped one that would have been their only A due to cost and travel.

People do drop interviews once they start getting As but now they may not. You are correct, in big scheme it may not matter but more applicants may not get interviews and more WL movement next cycle.

 

[openstage]

Honestly, I think the whole Covid thing is complicating every system and every process in America. So I see Med Schools more inclined to do more with less, and to simplify, because they need to rework how they do so much more of the general program of study. For example, most schools are working overtime this week to put together a meaningful online commencement. That's a huge pain in &^%$. Whereas in previous years, this may be in cruise control, everyone knows their part, order this, get that.

Overall, I think interviews will be the same or less. Not an increase.

 

[KnightDoc]

People do drop interviews once they start getting As but now they may not. You are correct, in big scheme it may not matter but more applicants may not get interviews and more WL movement next cycle.

Great points. It's just unlikely that an additional 10-20,000 people, in addition to the 50,000 already applying each year, fall into this category. Sure, some people who are good candidates who would have applied next year might push up a year due to the situation. It's also true that some people who were going to apply now will take a look at the crisis and say to themselves that they would rather go into law, investment banking, consulting or technology than medicine, so there will always be something.

It just seems unlikely that a 40% increase in applications will be supported by that many people who were good to go but were just taking a gap year for the hell of it. Remember -- the people sitting home with a gap in their gap year plans were already applying this year anyway. The people who would be pushing up are people whose resumes are at least a year less well developed than everyone else.

I'm sure it's possible that someone just laid off from a great job who would have been a great med school applicant two years might take a shot now, but that will be the exception rather than the rule. Also, that person will have a difficult time explaining why medicine (other than the obvious -- I just lost my job and now regret not following this more secure, but not my first choice, path!) if all their relevant ECs are 3, 4, 5 years old, and COVID-19 won't cut it as an excuse, so I don't think they'll be that competitive, no matter how great their grades or MCAT, or how many hours of clinical and volunteering experience they had, ending in 2017, when they got involved in their non-medical career. Like everyone else, they'll probably need to show a sustained commitment, and they'll be at a disadvantage to those who didn't divert into a different career until a global pandemic threw a wrench into it.

 

[KnightDoc]

People do drop interviews once they start getting As but now they may not. You are correct, in big scheme it may not matter but more applicants may not get interviews and more WL movement next cycle.

Great point about some people holding onto interview spots they would have otherwise relinquished. Either adcoms will account for this and be more judicious on who they extend IIs to (they already employ yield protection strategies, but also rely on candidates not spending time on money on a lot of interviews they are not really interested in).

If the cost to a candidate to accept an II drops to close to zero, adcoms will either need to adjust or they will see their yields drop as top candidates gobble up IIs and multiple As (actual difficulty in ultimately receiving an A won't change unless and until top candidates can virtually attend more than one school at a time! ), and will find themselves going deeper into their WLs to fill their classes. Ironically, this will make admission statistics look easier, not more difficult, since more people receiving IIs will ultimately receive As off WLs, but, yeah, some people who would have received IIs now won't if adcoms don't figure this out ahead of time and adjust for it, either by extending more IIs or yield protecting out more candidates unlikely to ultimately attend.

 

[Maimonides1]

Just got off an info session with Perelman adcoms. They said "the plan at this time is to do a virtual interview season" this fall. They are preparing for 100% virtual interviews. I anticipate most med schools will follow suit.

After AAMC recommendations I expect:

- All Medical school will offer virtual interview only in the fall with its known positives and negatives.
- Some will offer the optional visit/ in person interview if deemed safe and applicant choose to do so.
- All will recommend the on site second visit in the following spring for accepted applicants.

I don’t expect schools by going virtual with interviews will necessarily change the number of interviews granted in this cycle outside what is normal ratios for each school in terms of numbers of seats, desired yield and WL depth, all dependent on how competitive this cycle applicants pool will be.

 

[KnightDoc]

After AAMC recommendations I expect:

- All Medical school will offer virtual interview only in the fall with its known positives and negatives.
- Some will offer the optional visit/ in person interview if deemed safe and applicant choose to do so.
- All will recommend the on site second visit in the following spring for accepted applicants.

I don’t expect schools by going virtual with interviews will necessarily change the number of interviews granted in this cycle outside what is normal ratios for each school in terms of numbers of seats, desired yield and WL depth, all dependent on how competitive this cycle applicants pool will be.

Agreed, with one caveat. I don't want to steal from @srk2021, since he is the one who first pointed this out, so I am giving him credit for highlighting this potential issue.

If candidates don't drop IIs like they normally do after they start receiving As in October (because it costs them nothing to accept all of them without the time and cost considerations of travel), schools will have to adjust or else risk seeing their yields tank next year as many more people at the top of everyone's list accept many more IIs than normal, which will inevitably lead to many more multiple As, which will lead to many more declined As next Spring, which will lead schools to go far deeper into their WLs than normal.

Schools will either accept this new reality, or will plan for it by using the extra time to conduct more interviews to mitigate for this effect, or will have to figure out a way to yield protect even more people than usual out of IIs in the first place!

 

[Mr.Smile12]

I will also note there are several stages to getting to an application screen that have not yet considered here. How will the pandemic affect receipt of transcripts because the verification step takes the longest time. Then there are receipt of pending MCAT scores and LORs. Finally as pointed out secondary applications need to be turned in, and I presume only some fraction get to that point. Take out those who will drop because they are on waitlists but extended offers if committed students decide they can defer a year. Applications started is just the beginning of a longer marathon.

Sent from my SM-N960U using SDN mobile

 

[Maimonides1]

I will also note there are several stages to getting to an application screen that have not yet considered here. How will the pandemic affect receipt of transcripts because the verification step takes the longest time. Then there are receipt of pending MCAT scores and LORs. Finally as pointed out secondary applications need to be turned in, and I presume only some fraction get to that point. Take out those who will drop because they are on waitlists but extended offers if committed students decide they can defer a year. Applications started is just the beginning of a longer marathon.

Sent from my SM-N960U using SDN mobile

I couldn’t agree more..
AAMC just announced to expect delays in processing and verification of paper transcripts and other aspects of the application process might follow after their anticipated opening of submission phase on May 28!!

 

[Maimonides1]

How about people with multiple interviews doing most of them since there is no cost or travel involved?

After the AAMC recommendation to medical schools to go virtual with their admission interviews this cycle, they are doing the same thing for residency programs and hospitals!!

Directors are sounding the alarms for a very heavy upcoming interview season in already clogged ERAS and NRMP system that was barely restrained by the logistics and costs of travel..,

Now the flood gates are open, they are advocating for a controversial measure of "Putting limits on the number of applications and interviews" to allow adequate evaluation time and keep the system more fair and equitable to all applicants who might get disadvantaged by such a Roulette system!!

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

After the AAMC recommendation to medical schools to go virtual with their admission interviews this cycle, they are doing the same thing for residency programs and hospitals!!

Directors are sounding the alarms for a very heavy upcoming interview season in already clogged ERAS and NRMP system that was barely restrained by the logistics and costs of travel..,

Now the flood gates are open, they are advocating for a controversial measure of "Putting limits on the number of applications and interviews" to allow adequate evaluation time and keep the system more fair and equitable to all applicants who might get disadvantaged by such a Roulette system!!

As per medical schools admissions, may be they should start giving out As with aid quickly so that they get some interview cancellations.

 

[squids82]

After the AAMC recommendation to medical schools to go virtual with their admission interviews this cycle, they are doing the same thing for residency programs and hospitals!!

Directors are sounding the alarms for a very heavy upcoming interview season in already clogged ERAS and NRMP system that was barely restrained by the logistics and costs of travel..,

Now the flood gates are open, they are advocating for a controversial measure of "Putting limits on the number of applications and interviews" to allow adequate evaluation time and keep the system more fair and equitable to all applicants who might get disadvantaged by such a Roulette system!!

This sounds like an interesting development! I can't seem to find the article on the AAMC page, would you be able to link it?

 

[Maimonides1]

This sounds like an interesting development! I can't seem to find the article on the AAMC page, would you be able to link it?

This is the MedPage Today article by Jordan Hughes MD published three days ago..!

To the AAMC: Recommend an interview limit or else this year’s residency match may be a disaster

The COVID-19 pandemic has turned medical education upside-down. From exclusively virtual pre-clerkship courses, to delayed clerkships, to canceled graduation proceedings, there has been massive disruption.

www.kevinmd.com

 

[KnightDoc]

As per medical schools admissions, may be they should start giving out As with aid quickly so that they get some interview cancellations.

Why would that matter if it doesn't cost anything to take the additional interviews? Doesn't that happen now anyway at some schools? What makes people cancel interviews now is the time and cost of accepting all of them after they have As, not the presence or lack of FA info. As and FA info wouldn't solve for this issue unless people had full COA scholarships at what they think is their #1, and, without visits, even that will be up in the air until expected second looks in the spring.

No, the only way to address this will be as I suggested before -- either schedule more IIs, yield protect out more aggressively, or be prepared to go way deeper into the WL than normal, because more people at the top are not going to cancel IIs this coming year due to the inherent uncertainty and relative ease of taking the interviews.

Edit -- read the article @Maimonides1 linked above -- it perfectly describes what's going to happen with med schools this year!!! If med schools don't "limit" the number of interviews scarfed up by top candidates, by more aggressively yield protecting them out of IIs where they are likely using the schools as safeties than they did in the past, when candidates would take themselves out at a certain point in the process, they are going to be surprised when they see their yields collapse next year, and they see how deep they have to go into their WLs to fill their classes. The article convincingly describes why increasing the number of IIs is not a viable option.

 

[squids82]

Why would that matter if it doesn't cost anything to take the additional interviews? Doesn't that happen now anyway at some schools? What makes people cancel interviews now is the time and cost of accepting all of them after they have As, not the presence or lack of FA info. As and FA info wouldn't solve for this issue unless people had full COA scholarships at what they think is their #1, and, without visits, even that will be up in ther air until expected second looks in the spring.

No, the only way to address this will be as I suggested before -- either schedule more IIs, yield protect out more aggressively, or be prepared to go way deeper into the WL than normal, because more people at the top are not going to cancel IIs this coming year due to the inherent uncertainty and relative ease of taking the interviews.

Edit -- read the article @Maimonides1 linked above -- it perfectly describes what's going to happen with med schools this year!!! If med schools don't "limit" the number of interviews scarfed up by top candidates, by more aggressively yield protecting them out of IIs where they are likely using the schools as safeties than they did in the past, when candidates would take themselves out at a certain point in the process, they are going to be surprised when they see their yields collapse next year, and they see how deep they have to go into their WLs to fill their classes. The article convincingly describes why increasing the number of IIs is not a viable option.

And I'd add why applying to your state schools is even more important than normal!