Medical Concern with rapidly increasing enrollment - should I be worried?

[Question]

I have been accepted to a D.O school for fall 2022 that would not be considered top tier but doesn't have any major issues (that I'm aware of). My undergrad and grad degrees are in a field with an absolutely HORRIBLE job outlook, making them basically useless for practical skills (at least the knowledge is somewhat relevant to medicine though).

I have struggled for years to find a stable career and it has made me very gun shy. The thought of a lack of foresight and a higher education system that does not care about student outcomes failing me again makes me nervous to say the least. I failed myself since I has no idea where I wanted to take my degrees, but my advisors also failed me by not encouraging me to explore my options and mold my degree to fit an outcome.

I am finally set to go to medical school, as it has always been in the back of mind. But now I see all these new schools opening, current schools increasing enrollment, and more midlevels practicing. It makes me wonder if I can match in primary care by 2026 and, if once I'm done with residency, the job market will even need me. I've looked at the projections as best I can (see links below) but I don't trust myself after spending the last 8 years trying to figure out how to find a career. I would love to be a physician, but I need to know it is a smart choice before I quit my career and drag my fiancée across the country.

I could really use some advice. What I would like to hear most is 'you're being irrational and you need to look at the data' but more than that I want to make the right choice. I would certainly appreciate some honest opinions from people who know more than me. I am very nervous I will make the same mistake I made when I was 20. I appreciate any insight you can provide.

Ten Year Projections for US Residency Positions: Will There be Enough Positions to Accommodate the Growing Number of U.S. Medical School Graduates? - PubMed

Despite the increasing number of medical school graduates, our model suggests the rate of growth of residency positions continues to be higher than the rate of growth of U.S. medical school graduates. While there is no apparent shortage of categorical positions overall, highly competitive...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/forefront.20210518.286037/full/#:~:text=The%20Number%20Of%20Entry%20GME,of%202.7%20percent%20from%202020.

Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages - Human Resources for Health

Background Physicians play a critical role in healthcare delivery. With an aging US population, population growth, and a greater insured population following the Affordable Care Act (ACA), healthcare demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. This study is to examine current and future...

human-resources-health.biomedcentral.com

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[wysdoc]

This is a common question but there are more than enough residency spots for US medical school graduates.

 

[GoSpursGo]

If you're aiming for primary care, you will be fine.

 

[AlteredScale]

The safest bet is to go to a US MD school if you can but if you are wanting to do PC you will be fine going to any US medical school.

 

[Doodledog]

Hi - It can seem scary to see match rate numbers and read some of the concerns expressed about the future. The reality however is that there is no real danger of not having a career that is successful in primary care. Matching is not much of an issue for primary care as long as you pass the various exams and perform reasonably well (not great, just reasonably well). Of course, once you are in medical school (or residency) you may decide you wish to specialize (e.g endocrinology, pediatric ID, etc, etc) and that's okay too. Some fellowships are competitive, many, especially some of the pediatric ones, are not.

It's true that setting up a practice among high-paying families near to Central Park, Fenway Park, etc may be a bit more challenging, but there's lots of America that are very short of all types of primary care doctors. Willing to serve medicaid/medicare families? Lots of places will want to hire you.

Go at med school with a positive attitude that you will succeed and have the career you want. You may not always get your first choice in residency location, jobs, or cafeteria lunches, but you'll do fine.

 

[PerioDont]

Thank you. I appreciate the time it took to put together the response. I am strongly interested in specializing in endo or nephro, due to my interests and hearing there is need in those areas. I'm not sure how accurate my information is regarding those specialties, but I'd be happy as a generalist too. My interests may change but I'll take that one step at a time.

I also appreciate the location specific information. I'm looking to stay in the south/southwest/Midwest.

You all have been very helpful. Everyone in front of you comes from different experiences and I am grateful you appreciate those circumstances rather than dismissing their concerns. Thank you, it has put me more at ease

My dad is in nephrology and practices in a major southwestern city. Mid levels have been tremendously useful to his practice.

I think this is still a good career path to go down. Most of my dads colleagues and himself are making very good money and have a fairly good lifestyle as well with limited call etc as a specialist.

 

[TheBoneDoctah]

Really depends on what you wanna do. DO schools will get you into primary care for sure. If you want to do something competitive, it's always best to go MD if you can.

 

[Goro]

Agree with my wise colleagues. Keep in mind that hoards of Baby Boomer docs will be retiring or dying off in the next two decades, and they make up a huge chuck of the current clinical workforce.

I am concerned about the residency bottleneck, and the AOA's mania for opening new DO schools. But in the next 4-8 years, you'll be fine.

 

[GoSpursGo]

What you describe is what has already been happening for years in law schools, and to a certain extent pharmacy schools--where the name of your school is tremendously important to actually getting a job at the end of the day.

Could such a thing eventually happen in medicine? Sure. But first IMGs would get pushed, and then the DO grads from newer schools. As of now, any MD school and the established DO schools are all going to be good bets for the foreseeable future. I really don't foresee a problem with going to a newer DO school either if you're happy with primary care. There is and will continue to be a legitimate shortage in that job market, and if you are coming from a US school you will be able to match within the timeframe of your graduation.