Confused about # of applicants for 2021-2022

[Zuggelder]

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Hi

Someone wrote the following in WAMC:


"Note: please keep in mind the estimated 70% increase in applicants this year!"

I got super worried when I read this.

Could someone explain this to me and what sources are there for this?

 

[GoSpursGo]

Totally understand how that line would be anxiety-inducing, however since this question doesn't require anonymity I am moving it to the regular pre-med forum rather than Confidential Consult

 

[baz2020]

I find it hard to believe there could be a 70% increase in apps. A global pandemic created a 20% increase, I don’t think it’s possible. Sounds like bad speculation

 

[CorgiLoaf]

I find it hard to believe there could be a 70% increase in apps. A global pandemic created a 20% increase, I don’t think it’s possible. Sounds like bad speculation

A 70% increase compared to this year would mean ~42,000 additional applicants or over 100,000 total. I don't think there are even enough MCAT spots to handle 40k more applicants.

 

[deleted555445]

as things open up i would expect the number of applicants to enter correction territory, maybe not dropping all the way back to 2019 levels but lower than 2020 levels, especially since some people probably applied just because they didn't know what else to do with everything shut down and they really weren't qualified

 

[Goro]

Everything I have heard was that the increase was anywhere from 25-50%. It's most likely school dependent. My school went up some 33%.

 

[Earthworm Slim]

Could it be a misinterpretation of the increase in applications- as in a higher number of schools per applicant? Maybe since interviews went virtual, applicants felt more comfortable sending more apps to more schools.

 

[Zuggelder]

Apparently a consulting company said this to an advisee.

 

[deleted555445]

Apparently a consulting company said this to an advisee.

Sounds like a good way to make money by causing anxiety

 

[KnightDoc]

Could it be a misinterpretation of the increase in applications- as in a higher number of schools per applicant? Maybe since interviews went virtual, applicants felt more comfortable sending more apps to more schools.

THIS^^^^^^. The number of applicants went up a little less than 20%, from almost 51,000 to a little more than 60,000. Individual schools saw greater increases since people on average also applied to more schools. A 70% increase on top of that seems HIGHLY improbable. It seems likely that the number will plateau around 60K for the next few cycles as things settle down.

 

[Zuggelder]

Update:

Looks like they said 17% increase from 2020, not 70%, as someone misheard.

 

[YCAGA]

lol these advising companies are such crap. Half of what they say shouldn’t even be legal.

“Applications are expected to be up 300% this year and the average matriculant MCAT is now 531. Fortunately, my company has a 100% success rate getting students into medical school (110% if we include T20 Caribbean schools). My rate is $500/hr (billed by the minute). I accept Bitcoin or Chick-fil-A gift cards.”

 

[Bre]

Everything I have heard was that the increase was anywhere from 25-50%. It's most likely school dependent. My school went up some 33%.

Hi

Someone wrote the following in WAMC:


"Note: please keep in mind the estimated 70% increase in applicants this year!"

I got super worried when I read this.

Could someone explain this to me and what sources are there for this?

THIS^^^^^^. The number of applicants went up a little less than 20%, from almost 51,000 to a little more than 60,000. Individual schools saw greater increases since people on average also applied to more schools. A 70% increase on top of that seems HIGHLY improbable. It seems likely that the number will plateau around 60K for the next few cycles as things settle down.

*Edit* - Sorry, I might be off by a year on this data

In fact the number of applicants for this cycle is actually slightly DOWN from the previous year, see this data from AAMC directly https://www.aamc.org/media/37816/download

Last cycle had 53,370 applicants and this cycle had 53,030.

The number of applications has increased because each applicant is applying to more schools, but the actual number of people applying has not increased. The media and companies selling tutoring/consultation have cleverly worded their headlines for the sake of drama and anxiety or false narratives (like the "Fauci Effect").

 

[deleted555445]

In fact the number of applicants for this cycle is actually slightly DOWN from the previous year, see this data from AAMC directly https://www.aamc.org/media/37816/download

Last cycle had 53,370 applicants and this cycle had 53,030.

The number of applications has increased because each applicant is applying to more schools, but the actual number of people applying has not increased. The media and companies selling tutoring/consultation have cleverly worded their headlines for the sake of drama and anxiety or false narratives (like the "Fauci Effect").

given that the table you link has matriculant data too, and this cycle isn't over (people still haven't committed to schools and there are still people who may get acceptances off the waitlist), my guess is that they are referring to entry year 2020 people. i think AAMC has released that there were ~60k applicants this past year, although the quality of those excess applicants is debateable.

edit: first story i found, claiming 7,500 additional applicants from the previous year, putting it around 60500 total (Applications to medical school are at an all-time high. What does this mean for applicants and schools?). but i agree the "Fauci effect" is BS for so many reasons

 

[Earthworm Slim]

*Edit* - Sorry, I might be off by a year on this data

In fact the number of applicants for this cycle is actually slightly DOWN from the previous year, see this data from AAMC directly https://www.aamc.org/media/37816/download

Last cycle had 53,370 applicants and this cycle had 53,030.

The number of applications has increased because each applicant is applying to more schools, but the actual number of people applying has not increased. The media and companies selling tutoring/consultation have cleverly worded their headlines for the sake of drama and anxiety or false narratives (like the "Fauci Effect").

How is the number of matriculants and enrollment already determined before the end of this cycle?

 

[deleted555445]

Because the training of a doctor requires so much coordination with many clinical sites, schools must have this all established prior to seating a class. Therefore, maximum class size is determined long before applications arrive. It is also why medical schools will take WL candidates up to almost when classes start, They do not want to waste a seat that took so much planning to create

Instead, I think the data in that table refers to those who entered school in 2020, leaving some room for people who start in the winter/spring 2021 (if thats ever a thing?). If you look at AAMC Table A23, you can see it already has accepted applicant data for the 2020-2021 cohort. There's no way they would have that data until all acceptances have gone out, which they haven't. And they wouldn't post early data that would skew acceptance rates down just to update later. Given previous releases about the number of applicants in the 2020-2021 application cycle and these discrepancies, its much more likely AAMC is just posting data from the last cycle and giving it a confusing name

Edit: final piece of data, this chart has info on applicants, acceptees, and matriculants for 2020-2021, when there is know way they would know the number of acceptances and then the number of deferrals/decisions to do something else like PhD at this point. For those interested it looks like last year ~3.8% of accepted applicants chose not to go to medical school that year for whatever reason, likely mostly deferrals.

 

[Jack-Kennedy35]

wasnt what I was referring to. Rather how in general the number of seats are known in advance.

Hey Gonnif,

Do you know when the AMCAS transmission date will be released, for this year? Isn't it usually at the end of June? Apparently it was mid July last year.

Thanks

 

[KnightDoc]

*Edit* - Sorry, I might be off by a year on this data

In fact the number of applicants for this cycle is actually slightly DOWN from the previous year, see this data from AAMC directly https://www.aamc.org/media/37816/download

Last cycle had 53,370 applicants and this cycle had 53,030.

The number of applications has increased because each applicant is applying to more schools, but the actual number of people applying has not increased. The media and companies selling tutoring/consultation have cleverly worded their headlines for the sake of drama and anxiety or false narratives (like the "Fauci Effect").

Nope! @Screamapillar has it exactly right.

This issue keeps coming up. It is caused by AAMC's wacky naming convention. AAMC states "Each academic year includes applicants and matriculants that applied to enter medical school in the fall of the given year. For example, academic year 2020-2021 represents the applicants and matriculants that applied to enter medical school during the 2020 application cycle."

As a result, numbers they attribute to the 2020-21 "academic year" actually apply to the 2019-20 application cycle. This is messed up, but will never change, so we just have to accept it and move on! The tiny difference @Bre noticed was likely due to slightly different measurement dates, but both numbers clearly refer to the 2019-20 application cycle. This cycle absolutely had over 60,000 applicants, with the exact number depending on precisely which date is being used to measure.

 

[KnightDoc]

Hey Gonnif,

Do you know when the AMCAS transmission date will be released, for this year? Isn't it usually at the end of June? Apparently it was mid July last year.

Thanks

It has been released -- it is 6/25/21!