MD Convoluted Case - What are my chances?

[Cryptoguy]

School: Minor Ivy
Major: BS Mathematical Physics (4 year combined masters in physics as well)

Gpa(s):
3.47 gpa
3.5 Science gpa (mostly upper division / grad if that counts for anything)
upward trend (first two years = 3.3 for both; junior year looking like its going to be 4.0 for both semesters)
*see extenuating circumstances below

Mcat:
521 (132/129/131/129)

Research:
2+ years of lab (when I graduate - 1 year of lab when I submit primary)
Only 1 publication (pending) though it will be published in a high impact journal (nature)
Research is in clinical biophysics (cancer / proteins)

Volunteering/Clinical Experience:
1 year (125 hours at childrens hospital in emergency room)
3/4 year (68 hours at hematology clinic) *ongoing

Shadowing Experience:
5 hours w/ hematologist/oncologist
5 hours w/ rheumatologist
5 hours w/ infectious disease

LOR:
Probably pretty good but the 2 that I'm really counting on are ESL professors, so I'm a bit worried about that.

Extenuating Circumstances:
Poor health in freshman and sophomore year. Doctors couldn't figure out what was happening. Finally ended up almost dying, which prompted my medical leave for a year. Doctors finally figured it out and though its chronic and serious - it is much more manageable now that I have ongoing treatment. Junior year (the year I came back) was/has been a breeze (back to my old high school self where everything is easy for me). This is the entire reason why I'm applying - this experience fundamentally changed my entire career path (was going to go into theoretical mathematics or physics).

Other:
TA for 13 classes (all upper division or graduate level math/physics courses) \ did it mostly for money
Interview skills: small talk = really poor; research/science = excellent; everything else = average

List: (going for mdphd - I know its a long shot - but also checking boxes to apply md as well)
Dream - Stanford, Harvard, Penn, Duke, Mayo, CASE, WashU, UCSF, UCLA, UCSD, Columbia

Reach - Ohio State, Vanderbilt, U of Cincinatti, Dartmouth, Brown, Cornell, Florida IU, Georgetown, Rochestor, U of Arizona, BU, Pitt

Safety - State School

*I tried to diversify my list but I dont think I did too good of a job. I'm trying to apply broadly since I think my extenuating circumstances + my gpa will be looked at very differently at various places.

1) What are my chances?
2) Is my list okay - any modification suggestions?
3) Am I wrong to apply to so many places given my extenuating circumstances?

Thank you for your time!

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[GrapesofRath]

IF MD/PhD is the goal I would seriously consider waiting until after senior year to apply. Get another year of strong grades, get the GPA above 3.6, and I think youll be in a clearly better spot. WE can talk all we want about not wanting a gap year especially given how long MD/PhD training is but if that gap year is the difference between a) Getting into an MSTP funded MD/PhD program vs non MSTP funded lower tier program or b) Even more significantly no MD/PhD vs MD/PhD I think the gap year would be well worthwhile.

For MD/PhD programs, the average matriculant has a 3.8/35. I dont know that much about the intracies of MD/PhD admissions and hence good school lists, but a good mix of medium tiers with some top 20 reaches sounds reasonable.

For MD only: schools like Brown and Florida and IU OOS are going to be low yield. Schools like Georgetwon dont interview relatively many people who hit 38+ on the MCAT. Schools like Ohio State, Cincinnati, Rochester and Boston U sound like reasonable choices. For MD only get MSAR and pay attention to a) Schools 10th percentile GPAs b) Schools 90th percentile MCAT. Ideally, you want to target schools where you are at or above their 10th percentile and arent much higher than their 90th percentile MCAT if you are at all. Off the top of my head some worth looking into might be Einstein, Wake Forest, Va Tech, Emory, U of Iowa, Stony Brook and Miami. Top 20 reaches are all well and good but I would include at least a dozen MD schools where you are most likely to get a II like some of the schools I listed above. And just like aiming too high will be problematic, aiming to "low" wont help you either.

 

[WedgeDawg]

I agree with @GrapesofRath except if your undergrad is Brown you should apply there. Regardless of what your undergrad is, you should apply to their school, even if it's Columbia or Penn.

 

[doc05]

don't do it. if you are a mathematical physics major, then chances are you're too smart for medicine.

this is not a joke. I'm serious.

good luck.

 

[Cryptoguy]

IF MD/PhD is the goal I would seriously consider waiting until after senior year to apply. Get another year of strong grades, get the GPA above 3.6, and I think youll be in a clearly better spot. WE can talk all we want about not wanting a gap year especially given how long MD/PhD training is but if that gap year is the difference between a) Getting into an MSTP funded MD/PhD program vs non MSTP funded lower tier program or b) Even more significantly no MD/PhD vs MD/PhD I think the gap year would be well worthwhile.

For MD/PhD programs, the average matriculant has a 3.8/35. I dont know that much about the intracies of MD/PhD admissions and hence good school lists, but a good mix of medium tiers with some top 20 reaches sounds reasonable.

For MD only: schools like Brown and Florida and IU OOS are going to be low yield. Schools like Georgetwon dont interview relatively many people who hit 38+ on the MCAT. Schools like Ohio State, Cincinnati, Rochester and Boston U sound like reasonable choices. For MD only get MSAR and pay attention to a) Schools 10th percentile GPAs b) Schools 90th percentile MCAT. Ideally, you want to target schools where you are at or above their 10th percentile and arent much higher than their 90th percentile MCAT if you are at all. Off the top of my head some worth looking into might be Einstein, Wake Forest, Va Tech, Emory, U of Iowa, Stony Brook and Miami. Top 20 reaches are all well and good but I would include at least a dozen MD schools where you are most likely to get a II like some of the schools I listed above. And just like aiming too high will be problematic, aiming to "low" wont help you either.

I'm not opposed to the gap year, but shouldn't I apply anyways? Essentially what I'm asking is: what is the disadvantage of applying twice, assuming I don't get in anywhere in the first application cycle?

Also, what is appropriate for the gap year? Would I just apply for research assistant jobs positions or...?

Thanks!

 

[Cryptoguy]

don't do it. if you are a mathematical physics major, then chances are you're too smart for medicine.

this is not a joke. I'm serious.

good luck.

Eh? I think medicine is fascinating, especially the immune system! I also don't think anyone can be too smart for medicine, as ideally that's where we would have are smartest people allocated. Also, I don't intend to do purely clinical medicine - I want to focus heavily on clinical research. Can you maybe expand on what you said, so that I can get a better idea of where you are coming from?

Thanks

 

[GrapesofRath]

I'm not opposed to the gap year, but shouldn't I apply anyways? Essentially what I'm asking is: what is the disadvantage of applying twice, assuming I don't get in anywhere in the first application cycle?

Also, what is appropriate for the gap year? Would I just apply for research assistant jobs positions or...?

Thanks!

Yes being a reapplicant is a disadvantage. As a reapplicant the burden is on to show rather significant improvement just in order to get the same type of consideration you would as a first time app. In other words you will make things a lot harder on yourself as a reapplicant; they have to show and do more that a first time applicant otherwise wouldn't.

Reapplicants are looked at as risky because essentially they are damaged goods schools; schools will ask to themselves why did nobody want you the first time you applied. MD/PhD programs are especially risk averse because they get so many strong applicants and are paying for you to go there.

So yes it is not favorable to be a reapplicant. Your best chance will always be with your first app; make that first app the best it can and live under the assumption that if you can't get into an MD/PhD program as a first time applicant it'll be very difficult to otherwise

There are a lot of resources threads etc on here that talk about what you can do during a gap year. Spend a lot of time researching it; you yourself can only decide how you want to spend a gap year

 

[Cryptoguy]

Yes being a reapplicant is a disadvantage. As a reapplicant the burden is on to show rather significant improvement just in order to get the same type of consideration you would as a first time app. In other words you will make things a lot harder on yourself as a reapplicant; they have to show and do more that a first time applicant otherwise wouldn't.

Reapplicants are looked at as risky because essentially they are damaged goods schools; schools will ask to themselves why did nobody want you the first time you applied. MD/PhD programs are especially risk averse because they get so many strong applicants and are paying for you to go there.

So yes it is not favorable to be a reapplicant. Your best chance will always be with your first app; make that first app the best it can and live under the assumption that if you can't get into an MD/PhD program as a first time applicant it'll be very difficult to otherwise

There are a lot of resources threads etc on here that talk about what you can do during a gap year. Spend a lot of time researching it; you yourself can only decide how you want to spend a gap year

Thank you!

 

[Goro]

Suggest more shadowing.

Shadowing Experience:
5 hours w/ hematologist/oncologist
5 hours w/ rheumatologist
5 hours w/ infectious disease

Very sorry to hear of your woes. These are extenuating to a degree. Some Adcom members will think that you should have taken an LOA and go get better/fix things. But your saving grace is the upward trend. I do not think that a single year of 4.0 will be enough. Maintain that through SR year and then apply. You also need to get in some non-clinical ECs, preferably in service tot hose less fortunate than yourself. Get off campus and out of your comfort zone.

Extenuating Circumstances:
Poor health in freshman and sophomore year. Doctors couldn't figure out what was happening. Finally ended up almost dying, which prompted my medical leave for a year. Doctors finally figured it out and though its chronic and serious - it is much more manageable now that I have ongoing treatment. Junior year (the year I came back) was/has been a breeze (back to my old high school self where everything is easy for me). This is the entire reason why I'm applying - this experience fundamentally changed my entire career path (was going to go into theoretical mathematics or physics).



I suggest
Duke, Mayo, CASE, UCLA, UCSD

Dartmouth, , Georgetown, Rochestor, U of Arizona, BU,

Safety - State School

See above More lower and medium tier to be safe.

1) What are my chances?
2) Is my list okay - any modification suggestions?

Yes.
3) Am I wrong to apply to so many places given my extenuating circumstances?